Real Football Predictions for 2015

Even if he's in street clothes for 4 games, the Pats will be fine.

I was about to update my rankings to version 4.0, but with my draft this Saturday I decided against it.  I'm moving a lot of guys around, and I thought it best to leave a little mystery to my rankings this year.  We'll see if it makes any sort of difference one way or another. But what I thought I would go ahead and do is predict the winner of every NFL game on the schedule.  Seems simple enough, right?  I've been doing this little exercise for a few years now, and it's pretty fun.

Let's take a look at my simulation for 2015...

NE	BUF	NYJ	MIA
11-5	7-9	6-10	10-6
BAL	PIT	CIN	CLE
8-8	9-7	11-5	5-11
HOU	TEN	JAC	IND
9-7	3-13	2-14	13-3
SD	KC	DEN	OAK
7-9	10-6	13-3	5-11
NYG	PHI	DAL	WAS
7-9	10-6	9-7	7-9
GB	CHI	DET	MIN
11-5	5-11	8-8	7-9
ATL	NO	CAR	TB
9-7	9-7	8-8	4-12
SF	SEA	STL	ARI
4-12	12-4	8-7-1	9-6-1

In 2012, I predicted 6 of the 8 division winners.  In 2013 & 2014, I only got half of them right.  This year I'll try to at least get back to 6 out of 8, but we'll have to wait and see.  Here is some commentary on my predicted standings:

AFC East: Even if Tom Brady misses 4 games, I still like New England this year.  The Patriots will continue to dominate this division, but I could see Miami making strides to close the gap.  The Jets and Bills don't have a QB who can get them to the playoffs, but I think the Dolphins do.

I have the Bengals winning the division, but not a playoff game

AFC North: This is always a tough division winner to pick, but I got it right with the Steelers last year.  This year I think Cincy will find a way to win it again.  I also think Flacco could struggle to get the Ravens into the playoffs unless he has some receiving options emerge.  It would be strange to go from having 3 playoff teams in 2014 to just 1 this year, but I think that'll happen.

AFC South: I don't have this division looking much different than it did last year, except I have the Colts winning it by even more.  They only got better on the offensive side of the ball, and I think their defense will do just fine with their soft schedule.  I have the Texans finishing 9-7, but I could see that easily being 7-9 or even 6-10. 

AFC West: I'm not betting against Peyton Manning, so I'm picking Denver to win this division again. Like last year, once again I think the Chiefs will make the playoffs.  They didn't last year, but they were the first team out at 9-7.  This year I think they'll get to 10 wins and get a Wild Card spot.

NFC East: Last year, Dallas won this division at 12-4 and the Eagles missed the playoffs at 10-6.  This year I think the Cowboys struggle a bit and Philly will take the division with that same 10-6 record as last year (and the year before).

NFC North: Even minus Jordy Nelson, I think Green Bay will win this division for the 5th year in a row.  But I just don't see anyone else in this division making the playoffs in 2015, including Detroit.  It seems Minnesota is everyone's dark horse to get a Wild Card spot, but I think they'll be another year away from putting it together in the Teddy Bridgewater era.

Yeah I'm picking the Saints again...

NFC South: Carolina won this division last year with only 7 wins, but I think a couple of teams will get 9 Ws this year.  I'm going to say the Saints will have the tiebreaker over the Falcons and win the NFC South in 2015.

NFC West: A lot of people are picking the Cardinals to overtake Seattle in this division, but I'm sticking with the Seahawks until Russell Wilson proves me wrong.  But I will take Arizona to grab a Wild Card spot, and I think they'll get it because of (LITERALLY) a tiebreaker!

So here's what I'm predicting for 2015:

AFC East: New England Patriots

AFC North: Cincinnati Bengals

AFC South: Indianapolis Colts

AFC West: Denver Broncos

AFC Wild Card1: Kansas City Chiefs

AFC Wild Card2: Miami Dolphins

[Indianapolis over Denver in AFC Championship Game]

NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles

NFC North: Green Bay Packers

NFC South: New Orleans Saints

NFC West: Seattle Seahawks

NFC Wild Card1: Arizona Cardinals

NFC Wild Card2: Dallas Cowboys

[Philadelphia over Arizona in NFC Championship Game]

Super Bowl Prediction: Indianapolis over Philadelphia

The Eagles in a SUPER BOWL?!?  Why not?  But I'm not picking them to actually win it...

Cheers,

Bart

2015 Fantasy Football Rankings v3.2

Well, crap. 

That was my first thought when Jordy Nelson tore his ACL in a preseason game over the weekend.  I'm sure that was his thought as well, along with Aaron Rodgers and countless other players, coaches, and fans.  The same thing happened just days before to Kelvin Benjamin in practice, so both wideouts are done for the year.  I still had a year left of keeper eligibility on Jordy, but now I need to start looking at other options.  Let's see how the rankings are shaking up because of these developments and some others...

Cheers,
Bart

1. Eddie Lacy 2. Adrian Peterson 3. Marshawn Lynch  4. Le'Veon Bell  5. Jamaal Charles 6. Jeremy Hill 7. CJ Anderson 8. Rob Gronkowski 9. Antonio Brown 10. Demaryius Thomas 11. Dez Bryant 12. Julio Jones 13. Andrew Luck 14. DeMarco Murray 15. Matt Forte  16. Odell Beckham, Jr. 17. Calvin Johnson 18. LeSean McCoy 19. Justin Forsett 20. Lamar Miller 21. Randall Cobb: Moving Cobb to the top of this WR tier, which is moving above the next 3 RBs. 22. AJ Green 23. Alshon Jeffery 24. Alfred Morris 25. Mark Ingram 26. Frank Gore 27. Aaron Rodgers: He's down quite a few spots for me with the loss of his best WR. 28. Jonathan Stewart: With Benjamin going down, I'm sure there will be more focus on the run. 29. Melvin Gordon  30. Mike Evans 31. TY Hilton 32. DeAndre Hopkins 33. Emmanuel Sanders 34. Russell Wilson 35. Carlos Hyde: Back up a couple of spots. Really sounding like a bellcow RB in San Fran. 36. Latavius Murray 37. Brandin Cooks: Moving both Cooks and Matthews into my top-40.  38. Jordan Matthews 39. Drew Brees: Splitting hairs with him and Peyton, but I like Brees better as a potential keeper. 40. Peyton Manning  41. Amari Cooper 42. Davante Adams: He goes from my watch list to a top-20 fantasy WR. 43. Andre Johnson  44. Jimmy Graham  45. Greg Olsen: Moving Olsen above Kelce. Cam has to throw to someone, right? 46. Travis Kelce  47. Ben Roethlisberger: Moving Big Ben all the way into my top-50.  48. Joseph Randle: Getting concerned he may become part of a 3-headed monster in Dallas. 49. Ameer Abdullah  50. CJ Spiller 51. Andre Ellington 52. LeGarrette Blount: The proven commodity is climbing this RB tier.  53. Todd Gurley 54. T.J. Yeldon  55. Tevin Coleman 56. Sammy Watkins  57. Keenan Allen 58. Brandon Marshall 59. Julian Edelman: The addition of Reggie Wayne has me moving Edelman down just slightly. 60. Jeremy Maclin  61. Martavis Bryant 62. Chris Ivory: Moving Ivory to the top of this veteran RB tier.  63. Doug Martin 64. Rashad Jennings 65. Arian Foster: ...and Arian up to the bottom of the tier. If I have 2 RBs already, I'm looking here. 66. Martellus Bennett  67. DeSean Jackson  68. Allen Robinson  69. Nelson Agholor: I'm probably moving the rookie up way too much, but whatever. 70. Jarvis Landry  71. Joique Bell  72. Giovani Bernard  73. Isaiah Crowell  74. Matt Ryan: Moved him down a few spots, and moved Romo up to this QB tier.   75. Tony Romo    76. Golden Tate 77. Steve Smith 78. Vincent Jackson 79. Eli Manning 80. Ryan Tannehill  81. Cam Newton: Losing Kelvin hurts. Maybe he runs more, but I'm not so sure about that... 82. Tom Brady 83. Bishop Sankey 84. Ryan Mathews 85. Danny Woodhead: I keep moving the little guy up my rankings. 86. Tre Mason 87. Philip Rivers: He and Stafford seem to climb a few spots with every update.  88. Matthew Stafford  89. Roddy White 90. Eric Decker 91. Charles Johnson 92. Torrey Smith: Felt that I had to at least rank him ahead of Boldin. 93. Devin Funchess: This rookie WR cracks the top-100 with Benjamin going down in Carolina. 94. Mike Wallace 95. Anquan Boldin 96. David Cobb: Moved him and Freeman down to the top of this RB tier. 97. Devonta Freeman  98. Alfred Blue: He's down a bit. I just don't trust him to be the guy while Arian is out. 99. Duke Johnson 100. Charles Sims 101. Shane Vereen 102. Reggie Bush 103. Larry Fitzgerald 104. DeVante Parker 105. John Brown: Moved him up to this WR tier.  106. Eddie Royal 107. Brandon LaFell: I think Wayne is more of a threat to LaFell's targets rather than Edelman's. 108. Breshad Perriman 109. Terrance Williams  110. Kenny Stills  111. Darren McFadden  112. Denard Robinson 113. Fred Jackson  114. Zach Ertz: Dropped Ertz down to the top of this huge TE tier. 115. Jordan Cameron   116. Tyler Eifert: I keep moving him up, but so does every other freaking fantasy analyst!  117. Jason Witten  118. Delanie Walker: He and Julius Thomas fall toward the bottom of this TE tier. 119. Julius Thomas 120. Kyle Rudolph 121. Pierre Garcon  122. Marques Colston: Moved him up to this mini veteran WR tier with Garcon. 123. DeAngelo Williams   124. Roy Helu: Swapped him and Chris Polk in my rankings. 125. Knile Davis 126. Teddy Bridgewater  127. Sam Bradford 128. Carson Palmer 129. Derek Carr 130. Michael Floyd 131. Victor Cruz 132. Kendall Wright 133. Michael Crabtree 134. Doug Baldwin 135. Jeff Janis: Could be the third-best fantasy WR in Green Bay now that Jordy is out. 136. Jordy Nelson: Since I'm in a keeper league with an IR spot, he and Kelvin are still draftable. 137. Kelvin Benjamin 138. Owen Daniels  139. Josh Hill 140. Darren Sproles 141. Chris Polk  142. Matt Jones 143. Colin Kaepernick 144. Andy Dalton 145. Seahawks DEFENSE 146. Texans DEFENSE 147. Bills DEFENSE     148. Rams DEFENSE   149. Cardinals DEFENSE 150. Dolphins DEFENSE 151. Browns DEFENSE 152. Broncos DEFENSE 153. Packers DEFENSE 154. Patriots DEFENSE 155. Panthers DEFENSE 156. Colts DEFENSE 157. Steven Hauschka 158. Justin Tucker 159. Cody Parkey 160. Adam Vinatieri 161. Mason Crosby 162. Connor Barth 163. Matt Bryant 164. Dan Carpenter 165. Dan Bailey 166. Blair Walsh 167. Nick Novak 168. Chandler Catanzaro ...and a few more players to consider at each position QBs Joe Flacco Jay Cutler Jameis Winston Marcus Mariota RBs Andre Williams David Johnson Chris Johnson Bilal Powell Buck Allen Terrance West Dan Herron Khiry Robinson Cameron Artis-Payne Lance Dunbar: Could be heavily in the mix for Dallas as the 3rd down RB. WRs Brian Quick Dwayne Bowe Kamar Aiken Cole Beasley Brandon Coleman Rueben Randle Stevie Johnson Cecil Shorts Marvin Jones Cody Latimer Donte Moncrief Darren Waller Ty Montgomery: With Jordy done for the year, Montgomery suddenly becomes interesting. Phillip Dorsett: And this rookie is looking good in the preseason. Also on high-powered offense. TEs Coby Fleener: Moved him, Allen, and Green down to the watch list (had too many TEs ranked). Jordan Reed Dwayne Allen Ladarius Green Vernon Davis Austin Sefarian-Jenkins Eric Ebron Antonio Gates

2015 Fantasy Football Rankings v3.1

The biggest mover up my list this week: Ameer Abdullah.

Well I finally got around to posting my one big preseason article, and now it's time for another rankings update.  Arian Foster's injury might not be as bad as originally thought, and Kevin White's might be worse than the Bears were letting on.  There are a few other developments that have me moving guys around, so let's see what's happened in the last week or so, shall we?


Cheers,
Bart

1. Eddie Lacy 2. Adrian Peterson 3. Marshawn Lynch  4. Le'Veon Bell  5. Jamaal Charles: It sounds like Knile will be in the mix even more. Down a couple of spots. 6. Jeremy Hill: I felt like I had to keep moving him and CJ up to this first tier of RBs. 7. CJ Anderson 8. Rob Gronkowski 9. Antonio Brown 10. Demaryius Thomas 11. Dez Bryant 12. Julio Jones: With Douglas gone and Roddy declining, Julio could get 200+ targets.  13. Aaron Rodgers 14. Andrew Luck 15. DeMarco Murray 16. Matt Forte  17. Jordy Nelson 18. Odell Beckham, Jr. 19. Calvin Johnson 20. LeSean McCoy: A hamstring injury has me worried about Shady's durability. Down a few. 21. Justin Forsett 22. Lamar Miller 23. Alfred Morris: In a contract year and only 26 years old. This is his big payday season. 24. Mark Ingram 25. Frank Gore: I moved Gore up to this tier too. He's old, but consistent and in a great offense now. 26. AJ Green 27. Randall Cobb 28. Alshon Jeffery 29. Melvin Gordon  30. Mike Evans 31. TY Hilton 32. DeAndre Hopkins 33. Kelvin Benjamin 34. Emmanuel Sanders 35. Russell Wilson 36. Jonathan Stewart 37. Latavius Murray 38. Joseph Randle: As I keep moving him up, my decision to keep him or Latavius gets harder...  39. Carlos Hyde 40. Peyton Manning  41. Drew Brees 42. Jordan Matthews 43. Brandin Cooks 44. Amari Cooper: I think he belongs in this WR tier, right below the keeper line in my league. 45. Andre Johnson  46. Jimmy Graham  47. Travis Kelce  48. Greg Olsen  49. Ameer Abdullah: The hype feels real. Moving him up above Gurley and Yeldon.  50. CJ Spiller: Dealing with an injury (shocker), but I like him a lot now that he's out of Buffalo. 51. Andre Ellington: Not adding Chris Johnson to the rankings, but I am moving Ellington down.  52. Todd Gurley: These two rookies back up a bit. Can't dismiss the keeper potential.  53. T.J. Yeldon  54. Ben Roethlisberger: Moving him up to a QB tier of his own.  I'd reach for him around here.  55. LeGarrette Blount: In a contract year and only missing ONE game. He moves up slightly.  56. Tevin Coleman: I don't see Freeman as a bellcow RB, but I could see Coleman as one. 57. Julian Edelman  58. Sammy Watkins: Moving him into this WR tier. No QB but nice keeper potential.    59. Keenan Allen 60. Brandon Marshall 61. Martavis Bryant: I keep moving Martavis up my list.  I don't want to wait too long for him. 62. Jeremy Maclin 63. Doug Martin: In a contract year and getting talked up by Lovie Smith (again). 64. Rashad Jennings: He's still the #1 RB for the Giants, when healthy.  65. Chris Ivory: Also in a contract year, he belongs up in this RB tier with these other veterans. 66. Matt Ryan: And these 2 QBs fell a few spots as others moved up (as did the TE Bennett). 67. Cam Newton   68. Martellus Bennett  69. DeSean Jackson: Moved him down to the top of this WR tier.  70. Allen Robinson 71. Jarvis Landry 72. Joique Bell: He keeps falling and Abdullah keeps rising... 73. Giovani Bernard 74. Isaiah Crowell 75. Arian Foster: Moved him back up quite a bit with word he may only miss 4-6 weeks. 76. Golden Tate 77. Steve Smith 78. Vincent Jackson 79. Nelson Agholor: I think he'll become clear #2 WR in Philly. Moved him up to this WR tier. 80. Tony Romo 81. Eli Manning 82. Ryan Tannehill  83. Tom Brady 84. Bishop Sankey 85. Ryan Mathews 86. Tre Mason 87. David Cobb: Maybe I'm getting too high on Cobb, but I think he could easily overtake Sankey. 88. Devonta Freeman  89. Danny Woodhead: Moved him up into this RB tier. Could be a sneaky top-25 RB yet again.  90. Alfred Blue: Should be the starter for first few weeks, but it'll be a committee. 91. Roddy White: He and Decker are down to the top of this WR tier. Don't really trust either much. 92. Eric Decker 93. Charles Johnson 94. Brandon LaFell  95. Anquan Boldin 96. Mike Wallace 97. Torrey Smith 98. Philip Rivers: Moved these two QBs up to a tier of their own. 99. Matthew Stafford 100. Duke Johnson 101. Charles Sims 102. Shane Vereen 103. Reggie Bush 104. Zach Ertz: Tore his groin, but should be ready for Week 1. Still, moving him down slightly. 105. Larry Fitzgerald 106. Eddie Royal: I keep swapping him with Kevin White. With White's injury, this should stick. 107. DeVante Parker: He cracks the top-168 after I said he could be this year's Odell Beckham, Jr...  108. Breshad Perriman 109. Terrance Williams  110. Kenny Stills  111. Denard Robinson: Sounds like he could be the Week 1 starter (and not Yeldon).  112. Darren McFadden  113. Fred Jackson  114. Jordan Cameron   115. Delanie Walker   116. Julius Thomas: A fracture in his hand has me moving him down a couple more spots...  117. Jason Witten  118. Tyler Eifert  119. Kyle Rudolph: Moved this other Notre Dame boy up here with Eifert.  120. John Brown: His value went way up with Michael Floyd going down for a little while.  121. Pierre Garcon  122. DeAngelo Williams   123. Chris Polk  124. Knile Davis 125. Teddy Bridgewater 126. Sam Bradford: Moving Bradford, Palmer, and even Derek Carr up to this QB tier. 127. Carson Palmer 128. Derek Carr 129. Marques Colston 130. Michael Floyd: Dislocated fingers have him questionable for Week 1.  Down considerably. 131. Victor Cruz: Also worried about his health and moved him way down.    132. Kendall Wright 133. Michael Crabtree 134. Doug Baldwin: Also moved him down to this tier along with Victor Cruz. 135. Owen Daniels  136. Josh Hill 137. Coby Fleener: Apparently Fleener to catch more and Allen block more in 2015.  We'll see... 138. Ladarius Green  139. Dwayne Allen: He fell way down to this TE tier, but still should have value in that offense.  140. Darren Sproles: He belongs in the top-168. Plenty of balls to go around in Philly (hehe).  141. Roy Helu 142. Matt Jones 143. Colin Kaepernick 144. Andy Dalton 145. Seahawks DEFENSE 146. Texans DEFENSE 147. Bills DEFENSE     148. Rams DEFENSE   149. Cardinals DEFENSE    150. Dolphins DEFENSE 151. Browns DEFENSE 152. Broncos DEFENSE 153. Packers DEFENSE 154. Patriots DEFENSE 155. Panthers DEFENSE 156. Colts DEFENSE 157. Steven Hauschka 158. Justin Tucker 159. Cody Parkey 160. Adam Vinatieri 161. Mason Crosby 162. Connor Barth 163. Matt Bryant 164. Dan Carpenter 165. Dan Bailey 166. Blair Walsh 167. Nick Novak: Suisham tore his ACL in the HOF game, so I had to replace him with someone. 168. Chandler Catanzaro: Also moved him into the rankings to replace Randy Bullock. ...and a few more players to consider at each position QBs Joe Flacco Jameis Winston Robert Griffin, III Marcus Mariota RBs Andre Williams: Down to the watch list. Not enough room in my top-168 for him. David Johnson: Cardinals adding CJ has me moving him out of my top-168 too. Chris Johnson: And he is added to the watch list. Bilal Powell: Ridley probably will start the year on the PUP list. Powell the likely the Jets #2 RB. Lorenzo Taliaferro Montee Ball Terrance West Jay Ajayi James Starks Jerick McKinnon Dan Herron Khiry Robinson Cameron Artis-Payne WRs Brian Quick: As I mentioned in my preseason article, I don't trust any Ram WR yet... Dwayne Bowe: And I don't know how I can trust Bowe enough to draft him. Kamar Aiken: Adding him to the watch list because he could be the #2 WR for Flacco. Cole Beasley: If Dallas does throw more this year, he could get a lot more targets. Davante Adams Brandon Coleman Rueben Randle Stevie Johnson Cecil Shorts Marvin Jones Cody Latimer Donte Moncrief Devin Funchess Dorial Green-Beckham Darren Waller TEs Vernon Davis: In a contract year and TE coach Tony Sparano can only help. Added to watch list. Austin Sefarian-Jenkins Larry Donnell Eric Ebron Antonio Gates Jordan Reed: With Niles Paul out for the year, a healthy Reed is our only real option at TE...

My Catch-All Preseason Article...Spectacular!

Here it is, folks.  I'm finally getting around to posting my preseason article, and it's a big one.  Like I said in my last rankings update, I don't really have the time to write a bunch of articles this year.  So I'm not going to do separate pieces, but I'll give you a condensed version of a few of them right here.  And I promise I'll do my best to keep up with the weekly rankings once the season starts.

This is now, now...

I'm going to kick this thing off with a handful of guys I probably won't be drafting this year.  After looking at early rankings throughout the various websites I read, I always find that I have several players ranked much lower than the “experts”.  And while I'm not saying it's impossible that I'll draft any of these guys, it's definitely unlikely.  Things could certainly change in the coming weeks, but I'm comparing my rankings with the expert preseason rankings as of right now.

If you read my blog in previous years, you'll recall some picks I nailed and some that I totally missed.  That very well could be the case again.  I guess we'll have to wait and see...

WRs for the Rams
In my last couple of rankings, I had Brian Quick in my top-168.  But I'm not sure that'll be the case in my next update as he's still recovering from an offseason shoulder injury.  And aside from Quick, there's really no clear-cut #1 WR in St. Louis.  Unless Nick Foles starts showing any sort of preference in the preseason, this just seems like a 20-25% chance of picking the right guy.  Granted, it'll be in the later rounds.  But I'm likely just going to look elsewhere for my 3rd or 4th WR in my draft.

Jay Ajayi
He's not even projected to be Miami's #2 RB behind Lamar Miller, but a lot of experts have him in their top-100.  I understand getting excited about a rookie's fantasy potential, but Ajayi has been dealing with a hamstring injury in camp and is listed 4th on the first release of the Dolphin's depth chart.

Any Patriot RB not name LeGarrette Blount

Here are some names that won't crack my top-168 this year: James White, Jonas Gray, Brandon Bolden, and Travaris Cadet.  I mean, take your pick if you feel lucky playing Belichick running back roulette, but it's not for me this year.  Blount will miss the opener against the Steelers because, well, he likes to smoke weed.  So any of those other four guys could very well earn themselves some extra playing time with the opportunity early on.  But I just don't know which one of the four it'll be.  All of the reports out of New England right now say good things about all of these guys, and I'm not going to try to guess which one or two (aside from Blount) that will be viable fantasy options on a weekly basis.

I'm sure someone else will reach higher than me for Cameron.

Jordan Cameron

There are a lot of question marks at the tight end position this year, and it starts right at the top.  Will Gronk be without Brady for 4 games?  Will Jimmy Graham and Julius Thomas still catch TDs in their new digs?  Honestly, after Gronk, I think TE gets really iffy.  Assuming I don't end up with Mr. Fiesta, I probably won't take a tight end until pretty late in my draft.  That means I almost certainly won't end up with Cameron, who is in the top-100 for most.  I just think that's too high for a guy in his 5th NFL season who has had ONE good year and hasn't played a full 16-game season yet.  I'll probably end up with someone outside of the preseason top-10 and hope they end up as a nice surprise.

Jets D
Every expert seems to be ranking this squad in their top-10, but I can't figure out why.  They were a bottom-5 fantasy D last year and a bottom-10 team the year before that.  I guess they've done an OK job in the offseason through the draft and free agency, but I don't see it completely turning them into a dominant fantasy defense like they were years ago.  I'm not wasting a pick on the Jets only to waive them in Week 2 when they travel to Indy and get lit up for 40+ points.

Stephen Gostkowski

I realize I talked about this last year, but here I am again advocating total disregard for a kicker with a Week 4 bye.  I'm sure Gostkowski will be a top-5 fantasy kicker this year, but I definitely won't be drafting him.  I mean, maybe he'll end up on my roster at some point this season.  But it'll be Week 5 after I pick him up off the waiver wire if he makes it to my squad.  You see, whoever drafts Gostkowski in my league is going to be faced with a tough decision less than a month into the 2015 NFL season: do they waive a kicker or a young guy with potential?  My league doesn't have a ton of roster spots, so I'm not trying to have two kickers on my team in Week 4.  Then you end up waiving some guy you're still kind of excited about but who hasn't quite gotten it going yet (think Odell Beckham, Jr. last season).  Do yourself a favor and don't draft a kicker with an early bye week.  And yes, that include Gostkowski.


Enough talk about kickers though.  How about some of the guys ready for the next level?  In previous years, I gave you a full offensive team of players primed to make that jump from fantasy irrelevance straight to a top-10 or top-20 at their position (depending on where they were in the previous season).  This year, I'll give you a shortened list of those dudes.  As a reminder, I'm not talking about players who are already top-10 or top-15 in the preseason rankings.  Everyone expects C.J. Anderson and Travis Kelce to be one of the best at their positions in 2015.  I'm talking about some of the guys who are little more off the radar.  Let's see who we have this year.

A top-20 fantasy QB as a rookie with bad WRs...he'll be better.

QB: Derek Carr
So maybe this is a bit of a stretch, but I think Carr could make some big strides in his second year in the league.  This is a guy who threw for over 3000 yards and 20 TDs in his rookie year, and he finished as a top-20 fantasy QB.  He also did all of that with WRs like James Jones, Andre Holmes, and Denarius Moore.  Fast forward to 2015: Jones and Moore are both with other teams, and Holmes is down the depth chart behind guys like Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper.  In addition to those two, Carr also has a pair of young TEs to throw to in Mychael Rivera and Clive Walford.  They added a veteran RB in Roy Helu (from my Redskins) who is a good pass-catching 3rd down back to complement Latavius Murray.  Derek Carr definitely has some better weapons to work with this year, and I think he could finish as a top-15 fantasy QB.

RB: Charles Sims
Once again Lovie Smith is committing to Doug Martin, but forgive me if I don't 100% believe him.  Maybe I'm bitter because I drafted Martin in the early rounds last season and he did jack squat.  Well, Lovie drafted Sims, and I'm sure he plans to actually use him.  If anything, the 2nd-year RB out of West Virginia should be in there on third downs and catch a lot of passes out of the backfield.  I think he'll have really good value in PPR leagues, but I think he could even get the chance to take over for the Muscle Hamster and be the lead back for the Bucs this year at some point (especially if they end up a 3 or 4 win team again).

WR: Martavis Bryant
Most people realize that guys like Brandin Cooks and Jordan Matthews are in perfect situations to become top-10 fantasy WRs in 2015.  But here's a guy who could do just as much as the #2 option as those guys might do as #1s.  The Steelers throw the ball a TON these days, and you know teams are going to double cover Antonio Brown.  Sure, Big Ben is talking up Markus Wheaton right now.  But we heard some of that last year too.  I don't even think Martavis needs to play 50% of the snaps in order to be a huge factor for fantasy teams this year.  I mean, he only played in 11 games in his rookie season (which includes the postseason loss to Baltimore).  He totaled over 600 yards and 9 TDs in that short amount of time. With his big play ability, I could easily see him going for 800 yards and double-digit TDs this year.

TE: Tyler Eifert
Like I already said, the obvious pick at this position is Travis Kelce, but no one is sleeping on that guy this year.  In fact, no one is sleeping on Zac Ertz or Josh Hill either.  Maybe they should be on those last two, but time will tell.  For now, all of these tight ends are ranked top-10 at their position here in August.  But Tyler Eifert is still flying under the radar, even after Jermaine Gresham left Cincy to sign a 1-year deal with the Cardinals.  And you know what?  That's just fine by me.  Let him slip in the draft because I'll scoop him up if he's there late.  We really haven't seen much of what this kid can do in the NFL just yet.  He had a solid rookie season in which he caught 39 balls for 445 yards and a pair of TDs.  But then he suffered a season-ending elbow injury in Week 1 last season.  Hopefully he had plenty of time to study the playbook and get ready for 2015.  I think we could see 700 yards and 6 or 7 TDs from Eifert this year, which would easily put him in the top-10 fantasy TEs.


So I'm going to finish up this article with one of my favorite exercises.  Last year I called it "Who is this year's Zac Stacy?"  Basically I just went through and did a quick Q&A to try to predict some long shots...I repeat: LONG SHOTS.  You'll see what I'm talking about...

Q: Who is this year's Zac Stacy (2013) or Tre Mason (2014)?
[Description: A rookie (later-round draft pick) who is in a clouded backfield situation, UNDRAFTED in virtually all fantasy leagues, but could get a shot sooner rather than later to be the "bellcow" running back.]

A: David Cobb
Last year I went with Lorenzo Taliaferro in this spot, but that didn't quite pan out.  Instead, it was Tre Mason who went undrafted in nearly every fantasy draft but eventually finished as a top-25 fantasy running back in 2014.  This year I'm going to take a stab at the Titan backfield, which is about as muddled as any in the NFL.  Bishop Sankey was the first RB selected in the 2014 draft, but he didn't do much in his rookie campaign.  Then Tennessee went and drafted Cobb this year, which tells me they have little faith in Sankey.  Of course Cobb could just be replacing the plodding Shonne Greene, but I think he has a good chance to be the feature back for the Titans.


Q: Who is this year's Knowshon Moreno (2013) or Mark Ingram (2014)?
[Description: Former early round NFL draft pick, career plagued by injuries, but finally finds himself in a nice spot to be a feature running back.]

A: Darren McFadden
Do I think this will actually happen?  No, I don't.  But he sure fits the description!  Personally, I think Joseph Randle will hit the ground running (literally) and be the bellcow for the Cowboys this year.  But if McFadden can make the team and stay healthy, the former 4th overall pick in the 2008 draft could rejuvenate his career in Big D.  Time will tell.


Q: Who is this year's Danny Woodhead (2013) or Darren Sproles (2014)?
[Description: Shifty veteran who sneakily finishes in the top-20 overall fantasy RBs.]

A: Reggie Bush
Last year I went with Dexter McCluster, and I might've just been a year too early with him.  But the answer actually could be Danny Woodhead again.  Let me give you another guy who fits this description in 2015 though.  No, I'm not going to say C.J. Spiller.  He's not "sneaking" into anyone's top-20.  But right now, Reggie Bush is ranked in the 40s on average for the RB position.  Carlos Hyde might not be the workhorse everyone thinks he can be, and the 49ers could be passing a lot. That could mean more work for Bush, and he could sneak his way into the top 20 or 25 fantasy RBs this season.

Woa woa woa! Watch the foot, homie!!

Q: Who is this year's Keenan Allen (2013) or Odell Beckham, Jr. (2014)?
[Description: Rookie WR who finds himself on a team with a solid QB in need of a #1 WR, so he becomes that guy.  Must be late-round fantasy pick or even undrafted in most leagues.]

A: DeVante Parker
Last year I talked up Jordan Matthews here, and he was pretty spot on.  But there was an even better fit by year end, and that was Odell Beckham, Jr.  Odell started his first NFL season dealing with a hamstring issue and missed the first 4 games of 2014.  DeVante is still recovering from foot surgery and could end up missing some time at the beginning of his rookie season as well.  Beckham, Jr. was the 12th overall selection by the Giants.  The Dolphins took Parker with the 14th overall pick.  The similarities are there, and DeVante Parker could find himself becoming Tannehill's #1 target once he gets healthy and onto the field.  I'm not sure how high he'll be in my next rankings update, but he'l definitely crack the top-168.

Until then...um, stay classy I guess.

Cheers,

Bart

2015 Fantasy Football Rankings v3.0

You may or may not have noticed, but I'm definitely slacking a bit this year (I'm just going to blame it on the new job).  By this time in 2014 I was publishing my third preseason article, but I haven't even gotten out my first one this year.  And after looking at all of the different articles I did last year, I quickly realized that's not going to happen in 2015.  So I'm not going to do separate articles for "Guys I'll Let Someone Else Draft", "Guys Ready For the Next Level", "Who is this year's Zac Stacy?", etc.  Instead, I'll just give you one big article that I've compiled over the last month or so.  It'll be kind of a mixture of all of those things, but I'm not going super in-depth on each individual guy.  But have no fear.  I plan to continue to do weekly rankings once the season starts.  I don't intend to slack there.  I guess we'll see how it goes though.

So look for that in the next couple of weeks, but for now I thought I might as well version up the old rankings and give you a few things to think about as training camps are now underway.  As position battles unfold, this list is going to change...and change...and change some more.  I'm not sure how many more versions I'll give you before Labor Day, but there will at least be one more (AT LEAST!).  We haven't even seen the first episode of Hard Knocks yet, but there's already drama in Houston with the news of Arian Foster's groin.  I wonder if he'll tweet out a picture of the MRI...

Anyway, enjoy the latest version of the rankings and feel free to comment on all of my mistakes below.

Cheers,
Bart

1. Eddie Lacy 2. Jamaal Charles 3. Adrian Peterson 4. Marshawn Lynch  5. Le'Veon Bell 6. Rob Gronkowski 7. Antonio Brown: Foster's injury reminds me of the fragility of the RB. Moving up these 3 WRs. 8. Demaryius Thomas 9. Dez Bryant 10. Jeremy Hill:...and the RBs with the least tread on the tires move up a bit too (Hill & CJ). 11. CJ Anderson 12. Aaron Rodgers: Also moving who I see as the clear top-2 QBs near the 1st round.  13. Andrew Luck 14. DeMarco Murray 15. Matt Forte 16. LeSean McCoy 17. Jordy Nelson 18. Odell Beckham, Jr. 19. Julio Jones 20. Calvin Johnson: Moved Megatron to the bottom of this stacked WR tier. 21. Justin Forsett 22. Lamar Miller 23. Mark Ingram 24. AJ Green 25. Randall Cobb 26. Alshon Jeffery 27. Alfred Morris 28. Frank Gore 29. Melvin Gordon 30. Mike Evans   31. TY Hilton 32. DeAndre Hopkins 33. Kelvin Benjamin 34. Emmanuel Sanders: Moved Sanders down, but just to the bottom of this WR tier. 35. Russell Wilson 36. Jonathan Stewart 37. Latavius Murray  38. Carlos Hyde: I think I was a bit high on Hyde. Moved him down a RB tier. 39. Joseph Randle: Looking like the starter in Big D.  Have to move him up behind that O-line. 40. Andre Ellington 41. Peyton Manning: Moved these two old QBs down a few spots. Might keep dropping them... 42. Drew Brees 43. Jordan Matthews 44. Brandin Cooks 45. Jimmy Graham: He keeps falling down my list. Just don't trust him now in Seattle's offense. 46. Travis Kelce: And I'm moving these two TEs up to this tier with Jimmy! 47. Greg Olsen 48. Andre Johnson: Up slightly. He and Gore both climbing with move to Indy.  49. Julian Edelman 50. Keenan Allen 51. Brandon Marshall   52. T.J. Yeldon: These two rookie RBs fell a few spots for me. 53. Todd Gurley  54. DeSean Jackson  55. Sammy Watkins 56. Jeremy Maclin 57. Amari Cooper: Will probably go WAY higher than this anyway, but I moved him up slightly. 58. CJ Spiller 59. Joique Bell 60. LeGarrette Blount 61. Ben Roethlisberger: As much as I don't like to do this, I'm moving him to the top of this QB tier. 62. Cam Newton  63. Matt Ryan 64. Martellus Bennett  65. Jarvis Landry: With Mike Wallace out of the picture, Landry could make a big leap this year. 66. Martavis Bryant 67. Allen Robinson: Has looked like a freak so far this year. Moved him into this WR tier.  68. Rashad Jennings: Moved him and Martin to the top of this tier and the rookies down in it.  69. Doug Martin 70. Giovani Bernard 71. Isaiah Crowell 72. Alfred Blue: With the Foster news, this is about as high as I'll go with Blue...for now.  73. Tevin Coleman 74. Ameer Abdullah 75. Golden Tate: Didn't do much last year when Megatron was healthy.  Had to drop him. 76. Steve Smith 77. Vincent Jackson 78. Roddy White: Injury concerns have Roddy falling down my rankings. 79. Eric Decker 80. Chris Ivory: These 3 RBs moved up a bit and created this mini-tier.  81. Bishop Sankey 82. Ryan Mathews 83. Tony Romo: This QB tier is up a few spots for me too. 84. Eli Manning 85. Ryan Tannehill  86. Tom Brady: This is assuming he actually misses 4 games (down to this QB tier). 87. Tre Mason 88. Devonta Freeman  89. Zach Ertz: Just like last year, he keeps climbing my preseason rankings...  90. Nelson Agholor: Getting first team reps and another Eagle moving up the list. 91. Charles Johnson 92. Brandon LaFell 93. Anquan Boldin: I moved the old timer up into this WR tier. 94. Mike Wallace 95. Torrey Smith 96. Michael Floyd: A preseason injury could keep him out until the start of the regular season. 97. David Cobb 98. Charles Sims 99. Duke Johnson: Moved Duke, Shane, Reggie, and Danny up to this RB tier. 100. Shane Vereen 101. Reggie Bush 102. Danny Woodhead 103. Larry Fitzgerald 104. Kevin White: I added Eddie Royal to my watch list and White down a bit (for now...).  105. Terrance Williams 106. Breshad Perriman 107. Kenny Stills 108. Fred Jackson: Moved these two old guys down a little bit. 109. Darren McFadden 110. Denard Robinson: And Denard up to this tier with them.  111. Julius Thomas: Take away all of those TDs from Peyton, and what are you left with...? 112. Jordan Cameron 113. Delanie Walker  114. Jason Witten: I had a little too much Dallas hate going for Witten (moved him up). 115. Tyler Eifert: With Gresham gone, I had to get Eifert into my top-168! 116. Dwayne Allen 117. Pierre Garcon: Moved a couple of these veteran WRs up slightly. 118. Victor Cruz 119. Doug Baldwin   120. DeAngelo Williams   121. Chris Polk: With Foster out a while, Polk could be heavily in the mix in Houston as well.  122. Knile Davis   123. Arian Foster: He's injured...not dead. 124. Matthew Stafford: After the top-12 QBs, I just don't have much faith (moving a couple down). 125. Philip Rivers 126. Teddy Bridgewater 127. Marques Colston: Brandon Coleman could emerge, but for now I have to rank Colston. 128. Kendall Wright 129. John Brown 130. Michael Crabtree: Apparently looking good at Raiders camp. 131. Brian Quick 132. Dwayne Bowe 133. Kyle Rudolph 134. Owen Daniels: There's too much talk in Denver about using multiple TEs, so he fell to this tier. 135. Josh Hill: The hype is fading. Hill falls near the bottom of this last TE tier.   136. Ladarius Green: With Gates out for 4 games, moved him to my top-168. 137. Roy Helu: Should be the 3rd down back for Oakland and can spell Murray in any situation. 138. Andre Williams: Could be in the mix for the G-men, but not sure how much. 139. David Johnson 140. Matt Jones 141. Carson Palmer 142. Sam Bradford 143. Colin Kaepernick 144. Andy Dalton: Keep in mind, this dude was a top-5 fantasy QB just a couple of years ago.  145. Seahawks DEFENSE 146. Texans DEFENSE 147. Bills DEFENSE     148. Rams DEFENSE   149. Cardinals DEFENSE    150. Dolphins DEFENSE: A nice early-season schedule has me moving them up a bit. 151. Browns DEFENSE: Start with the Jets, Titans, and Raiders.  Not bad for early streaming D... 152. Broncos DEFENSE 153. Packers DEFENSE: Moved them into the rankings too, moving out Ravens/Jets/Eagles. 154. Patriots DEFENSE: Down a couple of spots. I really hate that Week 4 bye. 155. Panthers DEFENSE 156. Colts DEFENSE: Sure you might waive them Week 5 or 6, but they have early cupcakes. 157. Steven Hauschka 158. Justin Tucker 159. Cody Parkey 160. Adam Vinatieri 161. Mason Crosby 162. Connor Barth 163. Matt Bryant 164. Dan Carpenter 165. Shaun Suisham  166. Dan Bailey 167. Blair Walsh 168. Randy Bullock ...and a few more players to consider at each position QBs Jay Cutler: Might struggle with another new system, and I don't like him anyway, sooooo... Joe Flacco: I also dropped Joe out of the top-168. Unsure about his receivers this year. Jameis Winston Derek Carr Robert Griffin, III Marcus Mariota RBs Lorenzo Taliaferro Montee Ball Terrance West Jay Ajayi Branden Oliver Donald Brown James Starks Jerick McKinnon Dan Herron Theo Riddick Travaris Cadet Khiry Robinson Stevan Ridley Zac Stacy Jonas Gray Darren Sproles: With Mathews now in Philly, I'm not sure there's room for Sproles in fantasy. Cameron Artis-Payne: Do you trust Jonathan Stewart to stay healthy for a full season...? James White: Also added him to watch list because you never know in New England! Javorius Allen: I guess Taliaferro will be the backup, but maybe Allen overtakes him in camp. WRs Percy Harvin: I'll keep an eye on Percy, but I can't keep him in my top-168 for now. Brandon Coleman: Added to the watch list (turning heads in training camp). Markus Wheaton: Added as well (mostly because Big Ben hyping him up). Stevie Johnson or Malcom Floyd: One of them is going to catch passes this season, right? Rueben Randle: With Cruz coming off a horrible injury, need to have Randle on the radar. Eddie Royal: Added to the watch list too.  Not exciting, but could be a solid, deep sleeper. Jaelen Strong: Moved him down to watch list. Still a wait and see approach on the Houston #2 WR. Marvin Jones Kenny Britt Marqise Lee Cody Latimer Davante Adams Donte Moncrief Cecil Shorts Devin Funchess Dorial Green-Beckham Tyler Lockett Darren Waller DeVante Parker TEs Austin Sefarian-Jenkins: I put Eifert into my rankings and ASJ down to the watch list. Larry Donnell Coby Fleener Heath Miller Eric Ebron Antonio Gates: With the 4-game suspension, I couldn't keep Gates in my top-168.