Thursday, December 11, 2014

2014 Fantasy Football Week 15 Rankings


What a weird week of fantasy football.  Sure, guys like DeMarco Murray and Le'Veon Bell continued to produce big numbers, but Peyton Manning and Drew Brees barely put up double digits COMBINED!  I'm glad I had a bye week in my money league because I would have hated to lose on such a bad week from Manning (especially with Cam Newton on my bench as the #1 fantasy QB in Week 14).  I mean, that's a no brainer right?  Peyton over Cam?  Of course.  But last week that could have been the difference in advancing in the playoffs or sitting out the last couple of rounds.  

I need this guy to chill out for a week...
I wouldn't recommend getting cute at this point in the season though.  I mean, I'm a little concerned that Peyton has 3 bad fantasy games in his last 4, especially because CJ Anderson has been a bigger part of the offense over that span.  But I couldn't bring myself to start anyone over him in the fantasy playoffs.  I'd feel much better about losing with Peyton Manning in my lineup than with him blowing up on my bench...no one wants to be thinking about that in the offseason.  Bottom line: don't sit your studs.  And if you're going to take a chance somewhere with your lineup, maybe do it with your FLEX spot rather than your QB or RB1.  

But you know what?  You can totally disregard that advice if you want.  It's up to you.  Just win, baby!
(...unless you're my opponent this week.  In that case, Andy feel free to sit Le'Veon.  I hear the Falcons have a pretty good run defense.)

OK.  Let's do the rankings!

QBs
1.Andrew Luck 
2.Peyton Manning  
3.Aaron Rodgers 
4.Drew Brees  
5.Ben Roethlisberger
6.Tom Brady 
7.Matt Ryan
8.Tony Romo 
9.Jay Cutler
10.Philip Rivers  
11.Russell Wilson  
12.Matthew Stafford  
13.Eli Manning 
14.Mark Sanchez  
15.Joe Flacco   
16.Johnny Manziel
17.Ryan Tannehill 
18.Kyle Orton 
19.Andy Dalton 
20.Ryan Fitzpatrick 

Are you still considering Colin Kaepernick as your fantasy QB?  Well you shouldn't be.  I was down on him last week (ESPN #14, ME #18), and he finished outside the top-25 fantasy QBs.  This week the Niners travel to Seattle, where the defense is looking better and better these days.  San Fran finds themselves in a must-win game, but I'm not even ranking Kap in this matchup.  Speaking of must-win territory, are you still in the fantasy playoffs?  Were you forced to roll the dice with Shaun Hill against the Redskins in Week 14 (ESPN #23, ME #14)?  If so, you weren't too disappointed because he finished 16th.  This week Eli Manning gets to face that Washington secondary, and he's nearly a top-10 QB for me in Week 15.

I'm high on: Tony Romo (ESPN #13, ME #8)  
Can we all forget about that Week 13 game on Thanksgiving?  If you started Romo expecting big things that week, I'm guessing the answer is "no".  But I think you should at least try.  He was playing on short rest and the whole offense just never really got going.  I think things will be different this time around, as I'm sure Tony will be well prepared for this game.  Keep in mind that Philly is giving up top-5 fantasy numbers to opposing QBs this season, so I'm thinking that game was more of a fluke than a trend.

I'm down on: Matthew Stafford (ESPN #7, ME #12) 
If you own Stafford, you're probably starting him this week.  I just don't like him as much as the ESPN experts do, and I'll tell you why.  In his last two games, he has put together great back-to-back fantasy performances for basically the first time all year.  That being said, he only had 185 passing yards and 1 touchdown at Minnesota in Week 6.  Sure, he was without Megatron in that game.  But does Calvin Johnson make that much of a difference?  For my fantasy team's sake, I sure hope so.  But the Vikings are a top-10 defense against fantasy QBs this year, and I don't think Stafford is a no-brainer top-10 fantasy QB this week.  
RBs
1.Le'Veon Bell
2.Jamaal Charles 
3.Arian Foster 
4.DeMarco Murray   
5.Justin Forsett
6.Matt Forte 
7.C.J. Anderson 
8.LeSean McCoy
9.Eddie Lacy 
10.Marshawn Lynch 
11.Joique Bell 
12.Alfred Morris
13.Jeremy Hill 
14.Isaiah Crowell
15.Mark Ingram         
16.Tre Mason
17.Fred Jackson
18.Dan Herron 
19.LeGarrette Blount  
20.Jonathan Stewart 
21.Latavius Murray 
22.Lamar Miller
23.Steven Jackson
24.Rashad Jennings 
25.Chris Ivory  
26.Ryan Mathews  
27.Chris Johnson
28.Giovani Bernard 
29.Terrance West
30.Doug Martin
31.Kerwynn Williams  
32.Andre Williams
33.Frank Gore  
34.Matt Asiata 
35.Bishop Sankey 
36.Shane Vereen 
37.Pierre Thomas
38.Reggie Bush 
39.Trent Richardson 
40.Toby Gerhart
41.Darren Sproles 
42.Juwan Thompson
43.Charles Sims 
44.Stepfan Taylor
45.James Starks
46.Bernard Pierce 
47.Silas Redd
48.Knile Davis
49.Alfred Blue
50.Marcel Reece

Steven Jackson was a top-15 RB last week (ESPN #28, ME #20), and Lamar Miller finished 19th (ESPN #17, ME #22).  So I nailed one of my picks versus the ESPN experts and the other one was so-so.  Even without Haloti Ngata, Baltimore's run defense still looks like something to fear.  Lamar Miller only managed 53 rushing yards against them, and I don't trust any Jag running back to do much against them in a game that the Ravens should dominate (especially now with the news that Denard Robinson is done for the year with a foot injury). 

I'm high on: Tre Mason (ESPN #26, ME #16)
I think Mason will do even better in this rematch.

I hope I'm wrong about this one because my opponent this week in my money league might be starting him against me tonight.  I just don't see how the ESPN experts move Mason outside of RB2 territory this week.  I realize Arizona has a good defense, but Mason has proven that he will get the volume and the goal line carries.  When you start looking at who ESPN ranked ahead of him (guys like Dan Herron or Rashad Jennings), there are just too many question marks around some of them for me to consider them over Tre.  He had 81 total yards at Arizona in Week 10, and the Rams have been playing much better football since that loss (they've won 3 out of their last 4, including that stunning home win against the Broncos!).  I think the Rams will win this game tonight, and I think Tre Mason will have a pretty good game in the process.


I'm down on: Chris Ivory  (ESPN #16, ME #25) 
Here's another guy ESPN ranked way higher than Tre Mason, and I just don't agree.  He has a much nicer matchup (against the Titans), but he's in a much bigger timeshare than Mason.  In their last 4 games, the snap and touch count for Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson is nearly identical.  Add in the revenge factor for CJOK, and I think he actually has a shot at having a better game than Ivory in this game.  Chris Ivory also hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 8, so I don't see how he gets this high of a ranking, even with such a tasty matchup.
WRs
1.Calvin Johnson     
2.Antonio Brown 
3.Odell Beckham, Jr.  
4.TY Hilton
5.Demaryius Thomas 
6.Dez Bryant 
7.Jordy Nelson 
8.Julio Jones
9.Alshon Jeffery   
10.Emmanuel Sanders    
11.A.J. Green 
12.Mike Evans  
13.Randall Cobb      
14.Kelvin Benjamin  
15.Jeremy Maclin 
16.Keenan Allen 
17.Josh Gordon  
18.DeAndre Hopkins  
19.Roddy White 
20.Sammy Watkins
21.Kenny Stills
22.Golden Tate    
23.Jordan Matthews  
24.Julian Edelman 
25.Steve Smith, Sr. 
26.Martavis Bryant 
27.Brandon LaFell   
28.Vincent Jackson  
29.Marqise Lee 
30.Eric Decker 
31.Donte Moncrief   
32.Marques Colston
33.Charles Johnson
34.Pierre Garcon
35.Marquess Wilson 
36.Jarvis Landry  
37.Malcom Floyd
38.Mike Wallace 
39.Anquan Boldin  
40.Robert Woods 
41.Andrew Hawkins 
42.Nate Washington
43.Michael Floyd 
44.Doug Baldwin
45.Mohamed Sanu
46.Larry Fitzgerald
47.Wes Welker 
48.Allen Hurns
49.Stedman Bailey  
50.Davante Adams

I was high on Kenny Stills for the third week in a row (ESPN #29, ME #18), but it was one week too many.  The Saints surprisingly struggled at home against the Panthers, and Kenny Stills suffered along with all of the rest of them in fantasyland.  Now I have the tough choice between him and Jordan Matthews for my FLEX spot this week, but (as you can tell from my rankings) I think I'm sticking with Stills.  Mathews didn't do much himself against the Seahawks in Week 14, and Jeremy Maclin wasn't much better (ESPN #15, ME #23).  He only had 3 catches for 21 yards, but he did find the endzone to somewhat salvage his day for fantasy owners.  He still finished well outside of the top-25 though, and I'm going to continue to keep him lower than the ESPN experts this week.

Giving some love to a Jag this week!
I'm high on: Marqise Lee (ESPN #42, ME #29)  
Marqise Lee has been the best wide receiver for the Jags the last three weeks, and he'll be facing a Baltimore secondary that has given up a ton of points ever since the injury to corner Jimmy Smith.  Jacksonville will likely be playing from behind in this game, and I expect plenty of passing from Bortles to Lee.  I think he'll get at least 6 or 7 targets, and he has a very high ceiling in this matchup.

I'm down on: Mike Wallace (ESPN #28, ME #38) 
I've been down on Wallace before, and I'll be down on him again.  He has had one double-digit performance in his last 7 games, and he hasn't scored more than 12 fantasy points in a game all year.  Now he'll travel to New England and likely be on Revis Island all day.  No thank you.
TEs
1.Rob Gronkowski  
2.Jimmy Graham
3.Martellus Bennett  
4.Julius Thomas
5.Greg Olsen  
6.Antonio Gates
7.Delanie Walker 
8.Larry Donnell  
9.Travis Kelce
10.Dwayne Allen
11.Jordan Reed 
12.Coby Fleener 
13.Jared Cook
14.Jason Witten 
15.Jordan Cameron 

I ranked Coby Fleener 4th in Week 12 and then Travis Kelce 4th in Week 13 (ESPN ranked each 9th in both cases).  Neither had good games those weeks I ranked them, BUT both guys blew up a week later than I expected them to...

That being said, I ranked Martellus Bennett 4th last week, so I expect him to have a huge game against the Saints on Monday night.  New Orleans has given up the 8th-fewest fantasy points to the TE position this year, but they've allowed the most receptions to opposing tight ends over the last two weeks (19).

Just go with it!
DEF
1.Ravens
2.Rams 
3.Seahawks  
4.Lions 
5.Cardinals
6.Patriots
7.Giants
8.Chiefs 
9.Packers
10.Panthers
11.Eagles
12.Browns 
13.Jets
14.Colts 
15.Broncos  

I was dead wrong about the Patriots last week (ESPN #13, ME not ranked) as they were a top-10 fantasy defense.  But the Broncos (ESPN #11, ME #6) were also a top-10 squad in Week 14, so 1 out of 2 ain't bad, right?  Let's see what I have going on for this week...

Vontae's return will definitely help this D against Houston.
I'm high on: Colts (ESPN #19, ME #14)
This is interesting...Guess who I liked in Week 6 more than the ESPN experts?  Yep, it was the Colts and they were playing in Houston.  For the record, Indy finished as the 12th-best fantasy defense that week, right where I ranked them.  Now we're in Week 15, and Indy gets a home matchup with the Texans...and I still like them more than the ESPN guys.  The Colts have been a top-10 fantasy defense in the last 3 weeks, and some of that is certainly due to matchups (Jags, Redskins, and Browns).  But Vontae Davis is back at practice this week and I have a feeling that they'll stick it to the Texans yet again.

I'm down on: 49ers (ESPN #13, ME not ranked) 
Not only did I not rank the Niners this week, but I didn't even really consider them for my top-15.  And you don't have to look too far back for the main reason I didn't rank them.  Two weeks ago they hosted this same Seahawk squad in San Fran, and they got dominated.  Sure, the score was only 19-3, but the 49ers weren't able to get much done on the defensive side of the ball.  Aside from a handful of sacks, there was nothing to speak of.  Now they travel to Seattle, and I think this one might be even uglier.  I'm thinking something like 31-10, and I don't think they'll get much in the turnover department to give their defense many fantasy points.  

That's it for Week 15.  Good luck everyone (except you, Andy).

Cheers,
Bart

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