Thursday, December 4, 2014

2014 Fantasy Football Week 14 Rankings

Sooooo hosting Thanksgiving at our house for the first time wasn't all that crazy.  We had around 10 people there, including a newborn and a 5 year old.  And our little dog Josie was running around, but she was the only dog there which kept the craziness down a bit.  Since that meal is somewhat still fresh in my mind, I thought I'd rank my favorite dishes.
Spoiler Alert: Turkey barely made the list...

1.Stuffing   
2.Mashed Potatoes
3.Yeast Rolls
4.Banana Pudding Pie
5.Gravy
6.Baked Corn
7.Broccoli Casserole
8.Turkey
9.Pumpkin Pie
10.Brussel Sprout Salad

Sure, one could argue that gravy doesn't qualify as a side dish...but I'm ranking it anyway!

But back to fantasy football...

I have a bye this week in my money league, but you didn't think I'd leave you out in the cold in Week 14, did you?  I'm also one of four teams in the playoffs in my other league, so I'll have to pay attention there.  So with that, let's get to the actual rankings...

QBs
1.Aaron Rodgers   
2.Drew Brees
3.Peyton Manning
4.Andrew Luck   
5.Tom Brady
6.Russell Wilson
7.Tony Romo 
8.Matthew Stafford  
9.Ryan Tannehill  
10.Jay Cutler
11.Philip Rivers   
12.Cam Newton 
13.Ben Roethlisberger 
14.Shaun Hill    
15.Matt Ryan  
16.Mark Sanchez 
17.Eli Manning
18.Colin Kaepernick 
19.Andy Dalton  
20.Colt McCoy  
21.Teddy Bridgewater     
22.Ryan Fitzpatrick 
23.Joe Flacco 
24.Kyle Orton
25.Alex Smith

I blew it with my QB picks in Week 13.  I was down on Philip Rivers (ESPN #13, ME #19), and he finished as a top-5 fantasy QB against the Ravens.  And I was high on Andy Dalton (ESPN #21, ME #13), but he finished outside the top-20 in a near-loss at Tampa.  You know who else finished outside the top-20?  Peyton Manning (ugh!).  He cost me a win in my money league, but I still locked up the #1 seed with others losing.  It just bothers me that the Broncos seem to be running the ball more and more these days.  I just hope Weeks 15 and 16 will be competitive at San Diego and Cincinnati.  I'll need Peyton to air it out if I'm going to make a run at the title!

Who has the, um, guts to start Shaun Hill this week...?
I'm high on: Shaun Hill (ESPN #23, ME #14)  
A couple of weeks ago, I half-jokingly discussed with a friend the possibility of streaming QBs against the Redskins for the fantasy playoffs.  If you were somehow able to scoop up Mark Sanchez when Foles went down, then you could be all set to complete the trio of Hill, Eli, and then Sanchez in Weeks 14, 15, and 16.  Washington has done a good job of stopping the run this year, but our secondary has been absolutely terrible.  Every QB is putting up awesome fantasy numbers against the Skins, and Hill is coming off a nice little game against Oakland (a much better pass defense than Washington I might add).  You'd need some serious guts to start him this week if you're trying to survive and advance in the playoffs, but I like him as a better option than some other guys (like the guy I'm down on this week...)

I'm down on: Colin Kaepernick (ESPN #14, ME #18) 
If you're in the playoffs, then hopefully you're not digging into the teens for your starting QB this week.  But if you are, I don't see how you can trust Kaepernick (even in Oakland).  He hasn't had a multi-TD game since Week 6, and like I said, the Raiders actually aren't terrible against the pass.  He may save you with a few rushing yards, but I don't like him as a startable fantasy QB this week.
RBs
1.Le'Veon Bell
2.Arian Foster 
3.DeMarco Murray   
4.Eddie Lacy 
5.C.J. Anderson 
6.Matt Forte 
7.Jamaal Charles 
8.Rashad Jennings   
9.Marshawn Lynch
10.Justin Forsett
11.LeSean McCoy 
12.Mark Ingram
13.Alfred Morris
14.Joique Bell   
15.Tre Mason  
16.Isaiah Crowell  
17.Dan Herron  
18.Jeremy Hill
19.Ryan Mathews     
20.Steven Jackson
21.Giovani Bernard  
22.Lamar Miller
23.Frank Gore  
24.Denard Robinson 
25.LeGarrette Blount
26.Fred Jackson
27.Chris Ivory
28.Bishop Sankey 
29.Jonathan Stewart
30.Shane Vereen 
31.Matt Asiata 
32.Marion Grice
33.Latavius Murray
34.Doug Martin 
35.Trent Richardson 
36.Chris Johnson
37.Pierre Thomas
38.Reggie Bush
39.Carlos Hyde 
40.Andre Williams
41.Darren Sproles 
42.Terrance West  
43.Roy Helu
44.Mike Tolbert
45.Toby Gerhart
46.Benny Cunningham
47.Charles Sims 
48.Darren McFadden
49.Juwan Thompson
50.Bernard Pierce 

My running back picks versus ESPN's weren't much better, though the guy I was high on was declared inactive due to a back injury (so that doesn't count).  It's too bad because I really felt like Jerick McKinnon was due for another 100 yard game against what now appears to be a weak Panther defense this season.  Speaking of the Panthers, I was down on Jonathan Stewart (ESPN #36, ME #44) because, well, who wouldn't be?  Naturally, he went for over 100 total yards for the first time all season.  Sometimes these things just don't make sense or work out.  That's how it goes.  Now it looks like DeAngelo Williams has a broken finger, so The Daily Show might make a nice FLEX play this week in New Orleans.  The Tolbert Report may steal the goal line work, but you could probably do worse.

Enough with the Comedy Central references though.  One quick note about my RB (and WR) rankings.  As always, I'm ranking (or not ranking) injured guys based on whether or not I think they'll play this week.  Is it possible Jerick McKinnon is back this week?  Sure.  I'd probably rank him around 31-32 and drop Asiata considerably.  But I'm assuming he doesn't play, which makes Asiata the play there if you're kind of desperate.  I'm also not ranking Andre Ellington, but I am ranking Rashad Jennings (quite highly I might add).  As always, just keep an eye on those injuries and any others leading up to kickoff.

I'm high on: Steven Jackson (ESPN #28, ME #20)
I know, I know.  I dogged Steven Jackson earlier in the year, but he has been quite serviceable over his last 5 games.  In 4 of those 5 games he's had double-digit fantasy points, including 3 TDs.  This week he faces a Packer run defense that is near the bottom of the league.  If the Falcons can keep it close on Monday Night Football, I like Jackson to easily get double digit fantasy points yet again.


I'm down on: Lamar Miller  (ESPN #17, ME #22) 
Speaking of double-digit fantasy points, Lamar Miller only has 2 such games in his last 6 contests.  This week the Dolphins will be hosting the Ravens, who boast one of the league's best run defenses.  They're allowing the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs this year, and I think Miami will do most of their damage in the air.  The latest news is that Haloti Ngata is suspended 4 games for PEDs (Adderall), so that definitely hurts Baltimore's defense.  But I still think there are better options in the top-20 over Miller this week.
WRs
1.Calvin Johnson     
2.Demaryius Thomas 
3.Jordy Nelson
4.Antonio Brown 
5.Dez Bryant 
6.A.J. Green 
7.Emmanuel Sanders    
8.Julio Jones
9.Randall Cobb    
10.Josh Gordon
11.Odell Beckham, Jr.  
12.Alshon Jeffery
13.TY Hilton    
14.Kelvin Benjamin  
15.DeAndre Hopkins 
16.Brandon Marshall  
17.Golden Tate       
18.Kenny Stills
19.Brandon LaFell  
20.Mike Evans  
21.Mike Wallace
22.DeSean Jackson 
23.Jeremy Maclin
24.Jarvis Landry 
25.Roddy White 
26.Keenan Allen 
27.Jordan Matthews  
28.Julian Edelman    
29.Anquan Boldin  
30.Torrey Smith
31.Sammy Watkins
32.Andre Johnson
33.Kendall Wright
34.Marques Colston  
35.Stedman Bailey
36.Charles Johnson
37.Vincent Jackson 
38.Steve Smith, Sr.  
39.Robert Woods 
40.Kenny Britt  
41.Mohamed Sanu
42.Donte Moncrief  
43.Martavis Bryant 
44.Andrew Hawkins 
45.Marqise Lee 
46.Doug Baldwin 
47.Percy Harvin  
48.Davante Adams
49.Michael Crabtree
50.Pierre Garcon    

I was high on Kenny Stills for the second week in a row (ESPN #46, ME #31), and I had to make a point because the ESPN experts still weren't ranking him like he should be ranked.  It appears that he is a top target for Drew Brees now that Brandin Cooks is lost for the season, and he was a top-10 fantasy WR in Week 13.  Not only that, but he has the potential to close out the year in a big way with the upcoming schedule the Saints have.  I'm going to have a tough decision to make between him and Jordan Mathews at my Flex position in the weeks to come.  As for Terrance Williams (ESPN #38, ME #49), he actually finished outside of the top-50 with only 2 catches for 38 yards on Thanksgiving.  I won't even be ranking him for the foreseeable future.

I'm high on: Kenny Stills (ESPN #29, ME #18)  
Third week in a row I'm talking up Stills.  Sorry, but I just can't help myself.  The ESPN experts at least moved him up a little this week, but they didn't move him up enough!!!  I don't know what more to say about the guy, but you can't ignore what he has done since the Cooks injury.  The Panthers are giving up top-10 fantasy numbers to the WR position this season, so I don't see how you rank Stills as anything below a WR2.

It's Matthews, not Maclin who has been doing TD celebrations lately.
I'm down on: Jeremy Maclin 
(ESPN #15, ME #23) 
I'm not taking away from what Maclin did earlier in the season, but he hasn't been a huge factor for Philly since Week 10.  In his last 4 contests, he's averaging about 75 yards/game and has found the endzone just once.  This week he'll likely draw coverage from Richard Sherman, which could lock him down considerably.  It's tough not to start him if you're in the playoffs in your league, but I'd take a hard look at him if I had other options...
TEs
1.Rob Gronkowski  
2.Jimmy Graham
3.Julius Thomas 
4.Martellus Bennett   
5.Greg Olsen 
6.Antonio Gates
7.Delanie Walker
8.Jason Witten 
9.Jordan Reed
10.Dwayne Allen
11.Larry Donnell 
12.Coby Fleener 
13.Travis Kelce
14.Kyle Rudolph 
15.Heath Miller

Coby Fleener blew up a week later than I expected him to, and Travis Kelce did not (ESPN #9, ME #4).  So if you follow that pattern, then perhaps Kelce goes off this week, but who knows?  Guys like Jimmy Graham and Delanie Walker did nothing in Week 13, but I still have both as top options this week.  This position has been so crazy this year.  If you don't have Gronk, then you're just not getting consistent play from your tight end.  As for my rankings this week, I don't really have much different than the ESPN guys, so let's move on to the defenses.
DEF
1.Texans
2.Lions  
3.49ers
4.Vikings
5.Rams 
6.Broncos
7.Packers
8.Cardinals
9.Seahawks
10.Bengals
11.Dolphins   
12.Eagles
13.Chiefs    
14.Ravens
15.Colts  

I had to talk up the Houston Texans last week (ESPN #7, ME #1) because they have been a top-5 fantasy defense this season and they were getting the Titans at home.  And while they didn't finish as the #1 D in Week 13, they were a top-10 squad.  There were some huge numbers for fantasy defenses though, including multi-touchdown games for the Vikings and Jags.  But neither was even the top defense for the week!  The Rams were the best as they blanked the Raiders and got a defensive TD themselves.  I'd roll with them again versus my Skins this week (or the Texans at Jacksonville, who stay at my #1 spot this week).  The Giants were a top-10 fantasy defense against the Jags last week, and I don't see how the Texans wouldn't be in Week 14.

I'm high on: Broncos (ESPN #11, ME #6)  
I realize that Denver hasn't been a great fantasy defense this year, but they looked good in Kansas City last week and now they have what I think is a nice home matchup against Buffalo.  The Bills have only put up 13 and 9 points in their last two games, and I think the Broncos will keep them in check this week as they try to inch closer to locking up the AFC West.




I'm down on: Patriots (ESPN #13, ME not ranked) 
The ESPN experts almost have the Bills in their top-15, and a couple of the experts actually do.  So I could talk about how much of a bad idea that is in Denver, but I've done that pretty much every week someone plays there and the ESPN guys disregard Peyton Manning putting up 40 points.  Instead, I'll talk about the Patriots, who were my fantasy defense for the first half of the season.  I traded for the Seahawks and sent New England to the waiver wire, and since then it has looked like a pretty good move.  The Patriots have been a pretty mediocre fantasy defense over the last 4 weeks or so, and Sunday night they'll face a Charger team that gives up the 9th-fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses this year.  San Diego wants to have something to say about the AFC West themselves, and I think they'll put up plenty of points against New England in this one.

That's it for Week 14.  Good luck everyone (except you, Mike...Sure I have a bye this week, but I'm rooting against you because of how you loaded up for a run this season by trading 2015 draft picks.  Hugs and kisses).

Cheers,
Bart

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