I got back on the winning track in both of my leagues last week, but I struggled with my picks versus the ESPN experts. Allow me to just get these out of the way right up front rather than below each position ranking.
I'll start with a couple of decent picks...
High on Kyle Orton (ESPN #17, ME #14): He continues to play the role of a serviceable bye week fill-in (although just outside of my top-20 this week). He's nothing special, but he did finish as a top-12 QB against a tough Chiefs defense.
Down on Mike Wallace (ESPN #14, ME #20): While he did find the endzone, he also finished outside of the top-20 WRs. He's becoming more of a WR2 than every-week WR1.
High on Ravens Defense (ESPN #11, ME #2): They held the Titans to just 7 points and finished as a top-5 fantasy defense. Still surprised the ESPN experts were so low on Baltimore at home in this one.
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| I'll admit when I'm wrong, but I still hate the Eagles...so much. |
And now for the horrible picks...
Down on Mark Sanchez (ESPN #12, ME #17) and Eagles Defense (ESPN #6, ME #12): Wrong and wrong. I was hating Philly in this one (for the record, I still hate Philly by the way). But both Sanchez and the D proved me wrong as both were top-5 plays in Week 10.
High on Terrance Williams (ESPN #32, ME #25) and Larry Donnell (ESPN #9, ME #5): Williams put up a big goose egg against the Jags in London, and Donnell had a mere 4 catches for 26 yards.
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High on Lorenzo Taliaferro (ESPN #31, ME #24) and down on Benny Cunningham (ESPN #35, ME not ranked): I wish I could stop talking about RBs in the 30s when comparing my rankings to ESPN's, but it's the nature of the beast when my top-25 looks virtually the same as theirs. Last week burned me as Taliaferro lost touches to Bernard Pierce seemingly out of nowhere, and Cunningham was somewhat fantasy-relevant as he at least scored against Arizona.
Let's see what this week has in store though and get to the rankings!
BYES: Cowboys, Jaguars, Jets, Ravens
QBs
1.Aaron Rodgers
2.Peyton Manning
3.Andrew Luck
4.Tom Brady
5.Drew Brees
6.Philip Rivers
7.Matthew Stafford
8.Ben Roethlisberger
9.RGIII
10.Matt Ryan
11.Mark Sanchez
12.Cam Newton
13.Colin Kaepernick
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14.Josh McCown
15.Russell Wilson
16.Jay Cutler
17.Ryan Tannehill
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18.Eli Manning
19.Andy Dalton
20.Derek Carr
I'm high on: Cam Newton (ESPN #15, ME #12)
Everyone has the Saints penciled in to win the NFC South, but that division is still up for grabs. This week the Panthers host the Falcons, and the winner will be one step closer to making a run at the division title. I think it'll be the Panthers who come out victorious, and Cam will then have the Week 12 bye to get a little healthier for the stretch run. The Falcons are middle of the road when it comes to giving up fantasy points to opposing QBs, but they give up the most to opposing RBs. I think that means that even a gimpy Cam will get some of his fantasy points with his legs, and one of his 3 TDs on Sunday will be one of the rushing variety.
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 I'm down on: Jay Cutler (ESPN #12, ME #16)
ESPN actually has Cutler tied with Ryan and Sanchez at 12th, so he's somewhere in the 12-14 range. Either way, I don't like him very much this week as he faces the 5th-stingiest defense against opposing fantasy QBs this year. Add that to the fact that Cutler has had horrible games in 2 of his last 3, and I just can't trust him in this one.
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RBs |
1.Matt Forte
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2.Arian Foster
3.Marshawn Lynch
4.Le'Veon Bell
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5.Jamaal Charles
6.Mark Ingram
7.Eddie Lacy
8.Alfred Morris
9.LeSean McCoy
10.Ahmad Bradshaw
11.Andre Ellington
12.Shane Vereen
13.Frank Gore
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14.Jeremy Hill
15.Rashad Jennings
16.Steven Jackson
17.Terrance West
18.Ryan Mathews
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19.Bishop Sankey
20.Jerrick McKinnon
21.C.J. Anderson
22.Lamar Miller
23.Joique Bell
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24.Fred Jackson
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25.Tre Mason
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26.Trent Richardson
27.Darren McFadden
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28.Jonathan Stewart
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29.Ben Tate
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30.Branden Oliver
31.Darren Sproles
32.Charles Sims
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33.Theo Riddick
34.Jonas Gray
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35.Bobby Rainey
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36.Andre Williams
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37.Montee Ball
38.Bryce Brown
39.Matt Asiata
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40.Damien Williams
I'm high on: Bishop Sankey (ESPN #28, ME #19)
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| Not sure how this exists, but I love it. |
Remember in Week 5 when Matthew Berry proclaimed it would be Sankey's coming out party? Well he did...and it wasn't. But fast forward 6 weeks, and I say that this Monday night game will be his coming out party! What better way to do it than on a national stage and against a Steelers team that is 22nd in rushing yards per attempt? With Shonn Greene fumbling on the goal line last week, I think the Titans finally will let Sankey have a chance at being the every-down back. I like him as an RB2 this week and potentially the rest of the season if given the opportunity.
I'm down on: Montee Ball (ESPN #26, ME #37)
Not only is he coming back from a groin injury that sidelined him for 5 weeks, but Montee wasn't exactly tearing it up earlier this season when he was healthy. The ESPN guys have a lot of faith in a guy who has only hit double digit fantasy points once this season and could find himself in a three-way timeshare on Sunday. I'd much rather start someone more likely to get the bulk of the carries like Darren McFadden or even Jonathan Stewart...and of course, Bishop Sankey (obviously).
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WRs
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1.Demaryius Thomas
2.Jordy Nelson
3.Calvin Johnson
4.Antonio Brown
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5.Randall Cobb
6.Emmanuel Sanders
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7.Jeremy Maclin
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8.Julio Jones
9.TY Hilton
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10.A.J. Green
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11.DeSean Jackson
12.Brandon Marshall
13.Kelvin Benjamin
14.Golden Tate
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15.Mike Evans
16.Alshon Jeffery
17.Roddy White
18.Odell Beckham, Jr.
19.Mike Wallace
20.Martavis Bryant
21.Sammy Watkins
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22.Brandon LaFell
23.Keenan Allen
24.Anquan Boldin
25.Julian Edelman
26.DeAndre Hopkins
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27.Brandin Cooks
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28.Reggie Wayne
29.Jordan Matthews
31.Vincent Jackson
34.Mohamed Sanu
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36.Michael Crabtree
37.Marques Colston
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38.Rueben Randle
39.Cordarrelle Patterson
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40.James Jones
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 I'm high on: Keenan Allen (ESPN #28, ME #23)
This is more of a hunch than anything, but I feel like Rivers is going to start a new season with Allen following their bye week. The targets have been there, but the production just hasn't been. I think Keenan will get it going at home against the Raiders.
I'm down on: Vincent Jackson (ESPN #22, ME #31)
While I realize the Redskins have a horrible secondary, VJax hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 4. It's Mike Evans who has been going off for the Bucs (not Jackson), and I think that continues on Sunday in Washington.
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TEs
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1.Rob Gronkowski
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2.Jimmy Graham
3.Julius Thomas
4.Antonio Gates
5.Greg Olsen
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6.Dwayne Allen
7.Martellus Bennett
8.Mychal Rivera
9.Travis Kelce
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10.Larry Donnell
11.Jordan Reed
12.Charles Clay
13.Coby Fleener
14.Austin Sefarian-Jenkins
15.Kyle Rudolph (if active) or Chase Ford (if Rudolph inactive)
I'm high on: Mychael Rivera (ESPN #13, ME #8)
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| Don't expect to see this again on Sunday. |
He did nothing against the Chargers in Week 6, but since then he has become a much bigger part of the game plan. He is averaging 7 catches in his last 3 games, and he had 3 TDs in his last two. My top-7 TEs are exactly the same as ESPN's, but after that I don't see why you wouldn't give Rivera a shot.
I'm down on: Jared Cook (ESPN #11, ME not ranked)
The Broncos give up a lot of fantasy points to this position, but I just can't see trusting Cook at all. He had one big play that turned into a touchdown last week in Arizona, but in his previous 3 games he had a grand total of 6 catches for 48 yards. I'd definitely look elsewhere for a TE option this week.
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DEF
1.Broncos
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2.Lions
3.Dolphins
4.Browns
5.Chargers
6.Cardinals
7.Bills
8.Seahawks
9.49ers
10.Steelers
11.Chiefs
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12.Texans
13.Packers
14.Saints
15.Vikings
 I'm high on: Browns (ESPN #15, ME #4)
The last time I was high on the Browns versus the ESPN experts it worked out pretty well. I'm going back to Cleveland where they'll be facing Ryan Mallett in his first NFL start. Sure, he's not a rookie. He sat behind Tom Brady for two years and theoretically was learning from one of the best of all time. But in reality, we've only seen what he can do in college and in the preseason. Meanwhile, the Browns are balling out and are at the top of one of the best divisions in all of football...and they're doing it with a solid run game and defense. They're a top-10 fantasy defense this season, and they've been a top-5 squad in their last 4 games. They give up the 6th fewest points per game in the NFL, so I think they'll keep the Texans out of the endzone for the most part. None of the experts are even ranking Mallett in their top-25 this week, so I would imagine they're all expecting as poor of a performance as I am from him. It's just curious why none of them ranked the Browns D higher than 11th...
I'm down on: Patriots (ESPN #13, ME not ranked)
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There are a handful of teams I didn't even consider this week based on their horrible matchups: the Rams (who are facing Peyton Manning), Colts (against red-hot Tom Brady and company), Eagles (playing against Rodgers in Lambeau), and the Patriots (who face Andrew Luck coming off a bye). Most of the ESPN experts had three of those teams well outside of their top-15, but the majority of them ranked New England way too high in my opinion. Indy is giving up the 5th-fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses, and I don't see that changing against the Pats or anyone else for that matter.
That's it for Week 11. Good luck everyone (except you, Mike).
Cheers,
Bart
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