Week 13 Rankings: Friday Update

I hope everyone had a nice Thanksgiving.  And I'm not talking turkey, family, or anything like that.  What I want to know is whether or not you were able to watch football yesterday...?  Personally, I caught a little bit of each of the first two games, and I watched the Ravens beat the Steelers in its entirety.  Usually I do a recap of the Thursday night game by position, but seeing as how there were 3 contests this week, I think I'll just do it by game.

Mustache or no mustache, I want you back, Rah-jahs!!!

The opening matchup saw the Detroit Lions snap a 9-game Thanksgiving day game losing streak, as they destroyed the Aaron Rodger-less Packers 40-10.  Green Bay fell to 0-4-1 without their star QB, and Matt Flynn really struggled against a Detroit D that had a nice fantasy day.  This led to the Packer WRs doing pretty much nothing, and as a Jordy Nelson owner, I can't wait for Rodgers to get back in there.  Eddie Lacy was also disappointing, though that was somewhat expected since the Lions have a solid run defense.  On the other side of the ball, Matthew Stafford had a couple of picks, but he also had 300+ yards and 3 TDs.  Reggie Bush and Joique Bell both had nice fantasy days, and Megatron did his thing with over 100 yards and a TD.

The Cowboys-Raiders game was actually better than I expected, and Dallas held on at the end to get a 7 point win.  I'm playing against Tony Romo in my money league, and I played him on my own team in my fun league.  So his modest day may end up being a win-lose scenario for me, but I care more about the money league anyway.  His one TD pass went to Dez Bryant, so plenty of fantasy relevance there.  But the big winners in this game were the running backs.  Rashad Jennings continued to produce, as he only managed 43 total yards, but he did get 2 TDs.  For the Cowboys, DeMarco Murray finally showed why some people used a 1st round fantasy draft pick on him.  He gained over 100 total yards and had 3 scores in the Cowboy victory.

Dude, get out of the WAY!

And then there was the Ravens game, which really came down to the wire.  My wife and I watched the 1st half at my parents' house and the 2nd half from Apocalypse Ale Works in my home town of Forest, VA.  The Steelers were down 8 points with time winding down, and I thought my wife as going to squeeze the blood out of me when they scored and to cut the lead to 2.  But Baltimore held on and got a big stop on a 2-point conversion attempt (that was borderline pass interference).  I sat both of my Ravens in this one, and while Ray Rice continued to struggle, it was hard to watch Torrey Smith tear it up while on my bench.  I was way down on Torrey this week (ESPN #17, ME #28) because he was averaging 34 yards/game against the Steelers and had only hauled in 1 TD against them in his 5 games.  This time around, he got the best of Ike Taylor and racked up 93 yards and a touchdown.  Big Ben had a decent fantasy day in the loss, and while the Ravens kept Antonio Brown in check for the most part, Emmanuel Sanders and Heath Miller both got solid points.  In fact, Heath Miller was the only tight end in any of these games to get more than 5 fantasy points.  Le'Veon Bell also had a good game before getting blown up right at the goal line at the end of the game.  If it wasn't for his helmet flying off, he would've ended up with an even better fantasy day.

Speaking of injuries, let's do a quick update:

1. Probable running backs: I had all of these guys either out of my rankings or considerably lowered on Wednesday, but all were practicing today and are probable for their Week 13 games: Zac Stacy, Knowshon Moreno, Chris Ivory, Ryan Mathews, and Darren Sproles.  You'll find that my RB rankings are quite different than they were just 2 days ago.

2. Andre Ellington: This is a new development, as Ellington injured his knee in practice on Thursday and then sat out today.  He's now questionable for Sunday's game in Philly and is expected to be a game time decision.  I'm ranking him as though he'll play, but keep an eye on him if you're planning on putting him in your lineup.

3. Julius Thomas & Jordan Reed: Both tight ends missed their Week 12 games, but both practiced this week on a limited basis and are listed as Questionable.  It sounds like both will play this week.

4. Bills WRs: Stevie Johnson & Robert Woods have both been fully practicing this week, and both are expected to play Sunday against an Atlanta defense that has given up the second most receiving TDs this year.

It's been a disappointing season for Nicks.

5. Aaron Dobson has been ruled out for Sunday with a foot injury.  This may slightly boost the value of Kenbrell Thompkins, though he'd be an extremely risky start with Edelman and Amendola likely to get more of the targets (along with Gronk and Vereen).

6. Hakeem Nicks is probable for Sunday night's game against the Redskins after sitting out last week's matchup, but it's tough to rank a guy who hasn't scored more than 5 fantasy points since Week 6 and has no TDs on the season.  Maybe he finally gets one this week against a weak Washington secondary, but I wouldn't be counting on it.

7. Percy Harvin & Michael Crabtree: While Harvin played in Week 11 on a snap count, I think he'll be "all systems go" on Monday Night Football.  As for Crabtree, the 49ers finally activated him from the PUP list this week, and he's expected to make his season debut this Sunday.  I expect something similar to what happened with Harvin in Week 11, and I won't be ranking Crabtree until Week 14 (at the earliest).

That's it for the injury roundup.  Let's do the rankings!

QBs 1.Cam Newton 2.Peyton Manning 3.Drew Brees 4.Tom Brady 5.Russell Wilson 6.Josh McCown 7.Carson Palmer 8.Nick Foles 9.Colin Kaepernick 10.Philip Rivers 11.Andy Dalton 12.RGIII 13.Alex Smith 14.Ryan Fitzpatrick 15.Eli Manning 16.Andrew Luck 17.EJ Manuel 18.Matt Ryan 19.Brandon Weeden 20.Ryan Tannehill I'm high on: Carson Palmer (ESPN #16, ME #9)  Palmer has 2 passing TDs in each of his last 4 games (and in 5 of his last 6).  In those 4 games, he's also averaging less than 1 turnover, which is huge for him.  He's playing some good football lately, and it's turning into wins for the Cardinals.  This week he gets a Philly defense that is giving up the 10th most fantasy points to QBs this season, and I think he'll be a top-10 fantasy QB. I'm down on: Andrew Luck (ESPN #8, ME #19)  Two weeks ago, I wasn't able to be "down" on Luck because it was a Thursday night game.  But here we are again against arguably the best pass defense in the league, and ESPN is sticking with Luck as a top-10 fantasy QB.  I can't do it.  The only reason he had a decent fantasy night two weeks ago is with a rushing TD, and he hasn't been a top-10 fantasy QB in any of his last 3 games.  Maybe he'll prove me wrong, but I think he'll finish near the bottom of the top-20 this week. RBs 1.Adrian Peterson 2.Marshawn Lynch 3.Jamaal Charles 4.Matt Forte 5.Andre Brown 6.Frank Gore 7.LeSean McCoy 8.Chris Johnson 9.Knowshon Moreno 10.Alfred Morris 11.Zac Stacy 12.Maurice Jones-Drew  13.Giovani Bernard 14.Shane Vereen 15.Chris Ivory 16.CJ Spiller 17.Danny Woodhead 18.Fred Jackson 19.Pierre Thomas  20.Steven Jackson  21.Ryan Mathews 22.Ben Tate 23.Donald Brown 24.Bobby Rainey 25.Rashard Mendenhall   26.Darren Sproles 27.Montee Ball  28.Andre Ellington 29.Lamar Miller 30.Bilal Powell 31.Chris Ogbonnaya 32.Dennis Johnson 33.Benjarvis Green-Ellis 34.Brandon Bolden 35.DeAngelo Williams 36.Stevan Ridley 37.Benny Cunningham 38.Trent Richardson 39.Brandon Jacobs 40.Toby Gerhart I'm not really down on too many RBs this week, and my rankings changed so much from Wednesday to today with all of the injures that it was hard to figure out who to pick.  But I will give you one guy that I was high on when I compared my rankings versus ESPN on Wednesday... I'm high on: Dennis Johnson (ESPN #44, ME #35)  Gary Kubiak says that Ben Tate is still the #1 RB in Houston right now, but I don't trust him after benching Case Keenum and DeAndre Hopkins a couple weeks back.  Tate looked horrible last week against Jacksonville, and Johnson stepped in and gained 74 yards on just 13 carries.  With the Texans on a 9-game losing streak, I'm not sure what they have to lose at this point.  I think Tate will do a little better this week against New England, but I think the rookie out of Arkansas might get close to 50% of the carries.  This is somewhat of a gut call here, but seeing as how Denver destroyed the Patriots on the ground last week, I think there could be plenty of rushing yards to go around in this one. WRs 1.Brandon Marshall 2.AJ Green 3.Josh Gordon 4.Demaryius Thomas  5.Larry Fitzgerald 6.Wes Welker 7.DeSean Jackson  8.Keenan Allen 9.Alshon Jeffery  10.Harry Douglas 11.Andre Johnson  12.Victor Cruz  13.Pierre Garcon 14.Vincent Jackson 15.Riley Cooper  16.Michael Floyd 17.Kendall Wright  18.Percy Harvin 19.Dwayne Bowe 20.Anquan Boldin 21.Eric Decker 22.Mike Wallace 23.TY Hilton  24.Marques Colston 25.Steve Smith  26.Stevie Johnson 27.Reuben Randle 28.Cecil Shorts 29.Danny Amendola 30.Golden Tate 31.Julian Edelman 32.Roddy White 33.Cordarrelle Patterson 34.Tavon Austin 35.Brian Hartline 36.Robert Woods 37.Brandon LaFell 38.Kenny Stills 39.Kenbrell Thompkins 40.Greg Jennings I'm high on: Harry Douglas (ESPN #21, ME #14)  Of course I'm also high on Keenan Allen (ESPN #23, ME #10), who I continue to rank higher than ESPN week in and week out.  But you could've guessed that, so let's talk about Harry Douglas instead.  Since Week 7, Douglas is averaging just over 7 receptions/game and has scored the 7th-most fantasy points among WRs.  Seven man, SEVEN!  That's the number.  This week, he goes up against a Buffalo secondary that has given up the 3rd most receiving TDs this year (just behind Minnesota and Atlanta).  I do like the Bills this week as a streaming defense, but I think Douglas will still get his fantasy points.  I'm predicting 8 catches for 95 yards and a touchdown. You'll be running from these guys again on Sunday, TY... I'm down on: TY Hilton (ESPN #18, ME #32)  It's like deja vu all over again.  Just two weeks ago, I was ranking Hilton way down as he was facing this same, tough Titan secondary.  No change here, as Hilton faces them again after posting back-to-back games with under 50 yards receiving.  Tennessee is allowing the fewest fantasy points to WRs this season, and they haven't given up a TD to a wideout since Week 2.  I feel like Hilton's ceiling this week is around 10 fantasy points, and I think it's much more likely he'll end up with only 3 or 4 fantasy points again. TEs 1.Rob Gronkowski 2.Jimmy Graham 3.Julius Thomas 4.Jordan Cameron 5.Greg Olsen 6.Vernon Davis 7.Coby Fleener 8.Jordan Reed 9.Martellus Bennett 10.Delanie Walker 11.Tony Gonzalez  12.Charles Clay My tight end rankings are nearly identical to ESPN's, so let's get to the defenses... DEF 1.Panthers   2.49ers 3.Browns 4.Patriots 5.Bills 6.Dolphins 7.Bengals 8.Giants 9.Cardinals 10.Seahawks 11.Rams 12.Jets I actually forgot to capture the team defense rankings from ESPN on Wednesday, but what's personal for me is that I'm high on the Bills and down on the Bengals.  I know that a couple of days ago, ESPN had the Bills ranked outside of their top-12 defenses, and I had them ranked at #6.  Meanwhile, they have the Bengals ranked as a top-5 defense for Week 13, but I had them ranked below Buffalo.  As I'm sitting here typing this, I still don't know who I'll go with on Sunday.  I really don't like Cincy's matchup at San Diego, and I love Buffalo's quasi-home game against the Falcons.  Aside from last year's blowout loss to Seattle at the Rogers Centre, these games in Toronto have been pretty low scoring.  I like the Bills to win this one 20-16, and I think their defense will get to Matty Ice and company early and often. We'll see what happens with the rest of the Week 13 games starting Sunday at 1:00.  Good luck, everyone! Cheers, Bart

Week 13 Rankings

Say bye-bye, bye weeks.

There's still one more week before the fantasy playoffs start, but my money league's top-6 is already finalized.  However, a win this week will get me into one of the top-2 spots, which would give me a 1st round bye.  A loss would mean I'll have to suit up my little fantasy guys in Week 14 and need one more win en route to a championship.  So I'm hoping I can get my best lineup in order for this week, and I'll have some tough decisions to make (I might be benching both of my Ravens: Torrey Smith and Ray Rice).  Let's see how the rankings shake out and see if you can get that win you may need in your own league.  No more bye weeks, boys and girls.  It's a full list from here on out!

QBs 1.Cam Newton 2.Matthew Stafford 3.Peyton Manning 4.Tony Romo 5.Drew Brees 6.Tom Brady 7.Russell Wilson 8.Josh McCown 9.Carson Palmer 10.Nick Foles 11.Andy Dalton 12.Colin Kaepernick 13.Philip Rivers 14.RGIII 15.Alex Smith 16.Matt Flynn 17.Ryan Fitzpatrick 18.Eli Manning 19.Andrew Luck 20.EJ Manuel Last week I was down on Philip Rivers (ESPN #12, ME #20), and he was the #1 fantasy quarterback.  Probably my worst call of the year, but no one else was expecting that out of him at Arrowhead either.  I can't seem to nail him down from week to week, so I'm not going to list Rivers in the Friday spot for the rest of the season.  Sure, I'll rank him.  But I'm not going to be high/low on him because he's too hit or miss for me.  The guy I was high on in Week 12 was Scott Tolzien (ESPN #21, ME #15), who had a great matchup at home against the Vikings.  I felt like he had huge upside, but the one thing I was worried about with him was Mike McCarthy pulling a "Gary Kubiak".  Of course that's exactly what happened.  Tolzien got yanked in favor of Matt Flynn midway through the 3rd quarter with the Packers trailing 20-7, and the promise of a big fantasy day faded away much like JC Chasez (pictured above). Peyton Manning was a disappointment for the second week in a row, as the Broncos stuck with the running game in Foxboro on Sunday night.  On the other side of the ball, Tom Brady finished as a top-5 fantasy QB as he led his team back to victory in those cold conditions.  I hope Peyton can bounce back for me this week and do what Philip Rivers did to the Chiefs last week in KC.  There are three games on Thanksgiving, but I only have QBs ranked from two of them.  With 32 QBs to potentially rank, I had a hard time fitting either Flacco or Big Ben into my top-20.  I think this will be a low scoring affair in what will most likely be windy, freezing conditions tomorrow night. RBs 1.Adrian Peterson 2.Marshawn Lynch 3.Jamaal Charles 4.Matt Forte 5.Andre Brown 6.Rashad Jennings  7.Frank Gore 8.LeSean McCoy 9.Chris Johnson 10.Reggie Bush 11.Eddie Lacy 12.DeMarco Murray 13.Alfred Morris 14.Maurice Jones-Drew  15.Giovani Bernard 16.Shane Vereen 17.CJ Spiller 18.Montee Ball  19.Danny Woodhead 20.Fred Jackson 21.Pierre Thomas  22.Bilal Powell 23.Le'Veon Bell 24.Ray Rice 25.Steven Jackson   26.Ben Tate 27.Donald Brown 28.Chris Ogbonnaya 29.Bobby Rainey 30.Andre Ellington 31.Benny Cunningham 32.Rashard Mendenhall  33.Lamar Miller 34.Darren Sproles 35.Dennis Johnson 36.Benjarvis Green-Ellis 37.Joique Bell 38.Brandon Bolden 39.Trent Richardson 40.Stevan Ridley Moreno had a big night in Week 12, but will he play this week? If you thought I missed on my QB picks last week, wait til I remind you of the running backs I talked about.  First of all, I was high on Chris Ogbonnaya (ESPN #29, ME #25), who ended up outside of the top-40 fantasy RBs altogether in Week 12.  He got most of the early work for Cleveland, but a 2nd quarter fumble had the Browns going to other options.  That combined with a playing-from-behind scenario made for a horrible fantasy day for Ogbonnaya.  I guess that will teach me to talk up a position player for the Browns.  To keep the trend continuing, I was down on Knowshon Moreno (ESPN #8, ME #13).  Like Philip Rivers, he finished at the #1 spot at his position last week.  So take your pick on my worst call of the fantasy season because you have two good ones to choose from.  Knowshon hadn't been putting up top-10 fantasy numbers lately, but he sure did against the Patriots, as Denver gave him a season-high 37 rushing attempts!  He racked up 224 yards on the ground and added a touchdown as well.  He was dealing with a lower leg injury toward the end of the game though, and it sounds like he may be questionable to play against the Chiefs this Sunday.  For now, I'm ranking the Bronco RBs as if he will be out, but keep an eye on him this week. It was a rough week for RBs, as several left games with injuries.  Right now I'm not ranking these guys, but pay attention if you own any of them.  I'll try to get an update out on Friday, but that might not be happening this week with the holiday travel and Black Friday shopping taking priority.  Zac Stacy left last week's game with a concussion, and as of this writing he still hasn't been cleared to practice.  Benny Cunningham could be the starter this week against a tough 49er defense, and he could make for a decent Flex option if he's in line for 20+ touches.  One other back who had been playing pretty well lately but also suffered an injury Sunday is Ryan Mathews.  Mathews re-aggravated a hamstring injury that he suffered in Week 10 against Denver.  He hasn't missed any significant time this year yet, but it was only a matter of time with him.  I think it's possible he misses a game or two in order to get fully healthy from this...and Danny Woodhead owners rejoice!    One guy who might be back  this week is Darren McFadden.  Oakland plays on Thanksgiving at Dallas, so we'll know pretty early as to whether or not he's a go.  For now, I'm ranking Jennings as if he's the starter with no McFadden.  If Run-DMC ends up playing tomorrow, I think he falls somewhere in the low-20s and Jennings falls out of the top-10 for me.  You'll also notice no Chris Ivory, who is dealing with what he's calling both a high and low ankle sprain.  That doesn't sound good and it tells me that Bilal Powell will be the starter Sunday. WRs 1.Calvin Johnson 2.Dez Bryant 3.Brandon Marshall 4.AJ Green 5.Josh Gordon 6.Demaryius Thomas  7.Antonio Brown  8.Larry Fitzgerald 9.Wes Welker  10.Keenan Allen 11.Jordy Nelson 12.Alshon Jeffery 13.DeSean Jackson 14.Harry Douglas 15.Andre Johnson   16.Victor Cruz  17.Pierre Garcon 18.Vincent Jackson 19.Riley Cooper 20.Michael Floyd 21.Kendall Wright  22.Rod Streater 23.Dwayne Bowe 24.James Jones 25.Percy Harvin 26.Eric Decker 27.Jarrett Boykin 28.Torrey Smith 29.Anquan Boldin 30.Nate Burleson 31.Mike Wallace 32.TY Hilton  33.Marques Colston 34.Steve Smith  35.Cecil Shorts 36.Stevie Johnson 37.Golden Tate 38.Reuben Randle 39.Danny Amendola 40.Cordarrelle Patterson Last week I was high on Michael Floyd (ESPN #31, ME #21), who was coming off a career game.  I mentioned that sometimes you just need to roll with the hot hand, and Floyd got over 100 yards receiving for the 2nd week in a row, landing him inside the top-20.  On the other hand, I was down on James Jones (ESPN #29, ME #38).  Now, my logic was based on the fact that Scott Tolzien hadn't been throwing to him.  Of course we know that Tolzien was pulled in favor of Matt Flynn in the second half, so my logic got thrown out the window.  James Jones actually had 80 receiving yards on Sunday, but only 9 of those yards came from Tolzien.  Assuming Flynn is the starter this week, I've actually moved Jones up in my rankings considerably. Both Bear WRs are in my top-12 this week. The #1 fantasy WR in Week 12 was Josh Gordon, who had well over 200 yards and a TD.  This guy appears to be matchup-proof, and he should be a top-10 WR from here on out.  There I go again, talking up a position player for the Browns.  Hopefully that doesn't jinx him.  Some of the other big names like Dez Bryant and Calvin Johnson had more modest fantasy days, but Brandon Marshall continued to roll with McCown throwing to him.  I obviously like him a lot this week against Minnesota's secondary, as well as the other wideout for the Bears, Alshon Jeffery.  I think both have potential to be a WR1 this week.  It's amazing how deep my WR list feels this week with no byes.  Guys like Marques Colston and Steve Smith are near the bottom of my rankings, but I can't say that I don't like either of them this week.  There's a lot of depth here from top to bottom, and I think a lot of people will be looking to the receivers for Flex plays this week. TEs 1.Rob Gronkowski 2.Jimmy Graham 3.Jason Witten 4.Julius Thomas 5.Jordan Cameron 6.Greg Olsen 7.Vernon Davis 8.Coby Fleener 9.Martellus Bennett 10.Jordan Reed 11.Delanie Walker 12.Tony Gonzalez  No, that's not Gates... I would say I was 1 for 2 on my TE calls in Week 12.  On one hand, I was pretty high on Delanie Walker (ESPN #12, ME #7).  He had a very average day against an Oakland defense that had been giving up a ton of points to tight ends this season.  On the other hand, I was way down on Antonio Gates (ESPN #5, ME #11).  Apparently the ESPN experts thought that after catching his 3rd TD in Week 11, he was suddenly a top-5 tight end again?  I'm not really sure what they were thinking because he had a modest 3 catches for 21 yards against the Chiefs.  It was actually the 2nd-year TE Ladarius Green who had the better day for San Diego, as he took one of his 3 catches 60 yards to the endzone.  Gates seems like he's still the TE to own for the Chargers (at least for now), but they are getting Green a little more involved in the offense these days.  In fact, since Week 6, Green has averaged more fantasy points than Gates.  This has me ranking neither in my top-12 this week against the Bengals.  I am  ranking Jordan Reed again this week, as I'm expecting him to return from his concussion.  We'll see if he gets cleared to practice this week, but I might have to replace him in my Friday update. DEF 1.Panthers   2.49ers 3.Browns 4.Patriots 5.Ravens 6.Bills 7.Dolphins 8.Bengals 9.Giants 10.Cowboys 11.Cardinals 12.Seahawks I wish they were playing Geno again, but the Falcons will do. Last week, I gave you a lot of stats to promote the Cowboy defense (ESPN #16, ME #9), and I put my money where my mouth was because I started them with Cincy having a bye.  Sure enough, they got another defensive TD on their way to a top-12 fantasy day.  As long as they're not playing a high-powered offense, they appear to be a lock to get some decent fantasy points on the defensive end.  This week I have a dilemma because the Bengals are back from their bye, but they get a relatively tough matchup at San Diego.  I don't have Dallas ranked too far behind them, but I actually have the Bills ranked ahead of both of them this week, so I picked them up off the waiver wire.  I waived Big D to pick up Buffalo, so the choice now comes down to them versus the Bengals.  Cincinnati has been the #1 fantasy defense in their last 4 games, but that also includes 2 games in which their D scored 2 TDs in each contest.  The Bills have also been a top-10 fantasy defense during that same span, and they have a much friendlier matchup at home against a Falcons team that has gotten more than 13 points just once in their last 5 games.  I'll probably insert Buffalo into my fantasy lineup this week, but this will be a game time decision on Sunday, and the weather might even factor into my final decision.   I should mention I was down on Green Bay last week (ESPN #10, ME not ranked), but they actually finished in the top-15 or so themselves.  They've still only forced 3 turnovers in their last 5 games, but they were able to sack Christian Ponder 6 times (which was the most of any team in Week 12).  I wouldn't trust them at Detroit on Thanksgiving, but they could be a decent play in Week 14 against Atlanta in Lambeau, especially if they get their star QB back that week.  You need to be looking ahead, especially if you're streaming defenses like I am. I hope everyone enjoys their Thanksiving holiday, and I'll try to get an update done as usual. Cheers, Bart