Week 16 Rankings

Well it's the last week of most people's fantasy football seasons, but mine is officially over.  I'm not even playing for 7th place anymore, which is fine.  It was a frustrating end to a frustrating season.  This clearly wasn't my year to win fantasy football, but at least I have some tools in my keeper league to start off on the right foot in 2013 (namely Cam Newton, but maybe another diamond in the rough...still TBD).  I'm going to work on a look ahead to 2013 piece later, but for now let's recap the week that was and get into those Week 16 Rankings!

QBs

1.Cam Newton

2.Tom Brady

3.Drew Brees

4.RGIII

5.Tony Romo

6.Peyton Manning

7.Matt Ryan

8.Aaron Rodgers 9.Andrew Luck 10.Sam Bradford 11.Matthew Stafford 12.Russell Wilson 13.Ben Roethlisberger

14.Colin Kaepernick 15.Matt Schaub 16.Eli Manning  17.Josh Freeman 18.Nick Foles 19.Ryan Tannehill     20.Andy Dalton                     Cam Newton seemed like the guy who deserved the top spot last week, but it was another guy I hyped up who took the top spot: Russell Wilson!  I mentioned that he was a guy available in a lot of leagues who could be a better option than what you might have had in a key playoff week.  I had him ranked at #12, startable in most leagues.  I also mentioned that he was playing Buffalo (who gives up tons of fantasy points to QBs) and that he has easily been among the top-10 QBs over the last 4-6 weeks.  He remained on the waiver wire in my league, so no one took advantage of the juicy matchup with the Bills.  If I was still stuck with a guy like Philip Rivers, I would've been all over it, but I had Cam going and couldn't justify sitting him.  Speaking of Cam, I'm doubling down with him at the top spot this week, as he gets the Raiders at home. Aaron Rodgers finally bounced back, and Drew Brees had a big game in a crucial fantasy week.  I added RGIII in my Thursday updated rankings, but he ended up not going.  Kirk Cousins did extremely well in his absence, and he finished as a top-10 fantasy QB in Week 15.  I think either Redskins quarterback will be a solid play this week as they travel to Philly.  I currently have RGIII at #4, but if it's Cousins who gets the start, I think he still belongs in the top-20 as well. I suggested that Colin Kaepernick's legs should keep him near the top for the remaining weeks of the fantasy season, but all 4 of his TDs against the Patriots came in the air.  Either way, he is getting it done.  But be careful.  He travels to Seattle this week, and that is a tough place to play with the 12th man.  I don't think he'll have nearly as much success against that defense, but keep an eye as to whether or not they'll have some of their starters in the secondary (pending suspensions).  For now I have Colin outside of my top-10, and I have Russell Wilson just outside of the top-10 in the same game. Andy Dalton and Josh Freeman were two guys that moved up my board last week, and while Dalton had an OK game, Freeman flat out sucked.  I thought I liked Freeman a lot in Week 15 against that Saints defense, but apparently the experts liked him even more.  I wrote last week that I realized the type of game he could potentially have, but I would still start guys like Stafford or Ryan ahead of him.  If you had one of those guys and got cute and started Freeman over them, you are probably crying the blues today.  Of course, Ryan had a great game and Stafford didn't do much better than Freeman, but you get the idea. If you're still playing for something, a few guys I like this week more than the experts: Nick Foles - He had a rough week Thursday against the Bengals, but he torched the lowly Buccaneer secondary the week before.  This week he gets the Redskins, who continue to give up big plays down the field.  They've been doing better as of late, but I think Foles will find some holes in their defense in a home game that could be a potential spoiler for my Redskins. Tony Romo - Dallas gets a home game against the Saints, and they're playing for their playoff lives.  Especially (but not only) if Dez is healthy, I think Romo will continue to play at a high level.  I actually have him as a top-5 play this week. Sam Bradford - He has quietly put up some solid numbers this season.  He's not a guy on everyone's fantasy radar, but he's scored double digits in every game since Week 5.  Last week he had a great game against Minnesota, and this week he gets Tampa Bay, who just got lit up by Brees and company (and Foles the week before).  I like Bradford as this week's Russell Wilson shocker special, and I have him as a top-10 play.  Matthew Berry ranks him at 24 this week...TWENTY FOUR!  Wake up and smell the Rams, dude!

RBs

1.Adrian Peterson

2.Arian Foster 3.Doug Martin 4.Knowshown Moreno

5.Jamaal Charles 6.DeMarco Murray 7.Ray Rice 8.Darren McFadden 9.Alfred Morris 10.Trent Richardson  11.Frank Gore 12.CJ Spiller 13.Marshawn Lynch 14.Matt Forte 15.Chris Johnson 16.Stevan Ridley 17.Reggie Bush 18.Steven Jackson 19.LeSean McCoy 20.Darren Sproles 21.Vick Ballard 22.Mikel LeShoure 23.Benjarvis Green-Ellis 24.Michael Turner 25.Ahmad Bradshaw 26.DeAngelo Williams 27.Jonathan Dwyer 28.Beanie Wells 29.Jackie Battle 30.Shonn Greene 31.Mark Ingram 32.Montell Owens 33.Bryce Brown 34.Joique Bell 35.Alex Green 36.Jacquizz Rodgers 37.Mike Goodson 38.Bilal Powell 39.David Wilson 40.Danny Woodhead Last week I stuck with Peterson at the top spot, but I said Doug Martin could easily destroy the Saints defense and be the top RB for the week.  Well, half of that was right.  It's a safe bet to have AP at the top spot every week, but Doug Martin laid an egg (as did the rest of his teammates for the most part).  I don't think anyone really saw that coming, including me.  Ray Rice and Jamaal Charles (and to an extent Bryce Brown) were some of the other top guys who were surprising duds in Week 15.  I noted to keep an eye on Ray Rice's hip pointer injury, and I wonder if that was bothering him at all on Sunday against the Broncos.  Either way, the Ravens pretty much abandoned the run in the second half, which killed Ray's chances of having a decent fantasy day.  I look for him to bounce back this week, if in fact you happen to be a Ray Rice owner and still managed a victory to move forward in your playoffs. A few guys I liked in Week 15 and their results: Matt Forte - With Bush banged up, I had Forte in my top 10.  He got a ton of touches/yards and finished just inside the top-20.  If he didn't get stuffed on the goal line twice in a row from the 1 yard line (in the one series I saw while watching RedZone), this would be a different story to tell here. Moreno - I liked him to have another big game against a thin Ravens defense, and he did. Mathews - I don't even want to talk about it... Ingram - I didn't have him super high, but I noted that he has been getting a lot more touches lately and said that a TD was in order for Week 15...and Bingo was his Name-O! I noted in my Thursday update that the experts ranked Stevan Ridley much higher than I did last week.  With the Niners giving up the fewest points to RBs all season, I thought it was crazy to rank him any higher than a low end RB2/flex.  Danny Woodhead actually finished up with a great game, but Ridley almost got blanked, so I guess there are a couple ways of looking at the call I made there.  Take your pick. Week 16 has most of the usual suspects in the top-10, but a few notable movers up the board include: Knowshon Moreno - He has been crushing it against weak rushing defenses the last couple of weeks, and I look for him to continue doing that against the Browns.  I like him as a top-5 play this week. DeMarco Murray - Also on a tear lately, Murray has averaged about 15 fantasy points per game since returning from injury.  I've already talked about how I like Romo in this game, but I like Murray as well. Darren McFadden - Another new face in the top-10, I think he breaks out this week at Carolina. Vick Ballard - I keep talking about him, but he's been pretty solid since given a chance at the starting gig.  He's a solid RB2 against Kansas City this week, and potentially my other keeper in 2013 alongside Cam. WRs

1.Julio Jones 2.Calvin Johnson 3.Dez Bryant 4.Andre Johnson 5.Demaryius Thomas 6.AJ Green 7.Brandon Marshall 8.Steve Smith 9.Pierre Garcon 10.Victor Cruz 11.Randall Cobb 12.Vincent Jackson 13.Wes Welker 14.Reggie Wayne 15.Cecil Shorts 16.Roddie White  17.Eric Decker 18.Marques Colston 19.Miles Austin 20.Mike Wallace 21.Hakeem Nicks 22.Brandon Lloyd 23.Steve Johnson 24.Danny Amendola 25.T.Y. Hilton 26.Antonio Brown 27.Michael Crabtree 28.Danario Alexander 29.Sidney Rice 30.Torrey Smith 31.Lance Moore 32.Jeremy Maclin 33.Justin Blackmon 34.Golden Tate  35.Kenny Britt 36.James Jones 37.Mike Williams 38.Brian Hartline 39.Greg Jennings 40.Denarius Moore 41.Josh Gordon 42.Donnie Avery Brandon Lloyd is determined to pad his stats to make me look good from my preseason predictions, but it's too little too late.  I mean, who is starting him at this point?!?  Well I wasn't last week, but I'm sure some people did.  Those people reaped the benefits of 190 yards on 10 catches.  Where has that been all season?  Oh well.  I'm moving him up the WR list this week.  I say you have to play the hot hand if you have him and are still in the playoffs. AJ Green had a solid week (but nowhere near the top spot), and Vincent Jackson put up some garbage time yards to keep it respectable.  But Danario Alexander and Josh Gordon were almost nowhere to be found (and in Alexander's case, literally nowhere in fantasyland as he put up a zero!).  I still didn't move Alexander up as high as the experts did, who apparently forgot that Philip Rivers is still the QB in San Diego.  I'm sure he'll bounce back this week, but you have to be careful with these knee-jerk reactions (which is exactly what I'm doing THIS week with Lloyd...).  As far as Gordon, Weeden did look his direction a lot, but he failed to make the most of his 8 targets against the weak Redskins secondary.  This week he'll be going up against Champ Bailey, so I'm moving him back down considerably. Dez Bryant played through his hand injury, and if he continues to do so I think he is a must-start.  He's back in my top-10 this week after a decent Week 15.  Dwayne Bowe didn't play against Oakland, so I put Dexter McCluster on the list.  He was way down there, but he did manage 59 receiving yards in the contest.  I also didn't have Cecil Short ranked, but I said if he played you had to get him back into your lineup as a solid WR2.  He finished with 101 yards and was a top-20 WR. As for Week 16, here are a few of the receivers I'm highlighting: Steve Smith - I had him in my top-12 last week (so a WR1), and I'm mentioning him here because I've moved him up even further as Carolina hosts Oakland this week. Pierre Garcon - This is assuming RGIII is back because Kirk Cousins hooked up a lot more with Hankerson in Week 15.  But Griffin's favorite target is Garcon, and Philly couldn't cover a point spread against St. Mary's School of the Deaf and Blind at this point.  Look for Pierre to run wild this weekend in what hopefully will be another victory for my Skins! T.Y. Hilton - This guy continues to make plays every week, and he shouldn't have too much problem breaking another big catch against the Chiefs in Week 16.  He's looking more and more like my #2 keeper for 2013 because I might just cut ties with Ryan Mathews altogether at this point (Vick Ballard, his teammate, is probably my other decent option as I mentioned already). Cecil Shorts - I already mentioned him from my comment on last week, but keep it rolling if you have Cecil.  He's averaging about 15 fantasy points per game in his last 5, and I don't see why that would change against New England this week.  Jacksonville should be airing it out early and often.  I've moved him up a ton. Note: No, you do not see Larry Fitzgerald in my top-40 WRs for Week 16.  I can't believe it either.  Let's just hope the Cardinals get a QB in the draft or free agency so we can get back to seeing him for what he is: one of the best WRs in the league! TEs

1.Tony Gonzalez

2.Jimmy Graham 3.Aaron Hernandez 4.Jason Witten 5.Heath Miller 6.Greg Olsen 7.Antonio Gates 8.Dennis Pitta 9.Jermaine Gresham 10.GRONK 11.Kyle Rudolph 12.Martellus Bennett  I had Gresham in my top five last week, and while he didn't get near the 100 yards I predicted (and no TD), he led the Bengals in receiving against the Eagles.  Sooooo I guess that's something (but it's not much).  He also ended up as the #14 TE for the week, so not too bad considering some of the random guys who finished ahead of him that no one predicted would do anything.  That Thursday night game didn't go quite as expected in a lot of ways.  I also threw out a flier on Clay Harbor, who missed a long pass and caught another, but who also was having back spasms during the game and is now on the IR.  Sorry I didn't predict that one, folks. Last week I removed Owen Daniels and Vernon Davis because of their inconsistency as of late, and they combined for a total of 5 points.  I also refused to rank (or play) Antonio Gates, and he finally caught another TD.  With Mathews going down, I think it's possible he might get a couple extra looks this week, so I've added him back to the top-12 for Week 16 (but Daniels and Davis remain off).  The experts continue to rank Daniels as a top-10 tight end, but I'd much rather have one of my top-12 above (obviously). I think it's possible Gronkowski comes back this week, so I've added him back to the list as well.  I feel that if he does return, he'll be somewhat limited (even though he is a freak of nature), so I have him ranked behind Hernandez and just barely inside the top-10.  Keep an eye on the injury reports.  Wait, scratch that.  You're going to have to wait until game time on this one.  After all, it is the Patriots.

DEF 1.Bears

2.Broncos 3.Packers 4.Patriots 5.Texans 6.Chargers 7.Jets 8.Cardinals 9.Falcons 10.Seahawks  11.Bengals

12.49ers 13.Colts 14.Rams    Seattle wasn't the top defense again last week, but they still were in the top-10 in a week that saw a lot of teams get 20+ points.  I rolled with the Jets again on Monday night, and it looks like I had the wrong defense in that game because Tennessee was the one playing against Mark Sanchez.  Both were solid plays, but the Titans put up a lot of fantasy points with all of those Jet turnovers. I didn't rank the Bears or Niners in my top-14, but I did have the Texans up there.  The Texans cracked the top-10 in Week 15, but the other two did not.  A lot of the experts were still ranking Chicago pretty high, even though they were playing Green Bay, which I thought was a little crazy.  They finished with a mediocre 10 points.  My big miss was the Rams, who I had at #2, as they finished well toward the bottom of the 32 team defenses.  Detroit was also a miss for both me and most of the experts.  It turns out Arizona can still win a football game, though a good chunk of that had to do with their defense, which was the top ranked for the week. In my Thursday update, I decided to put the Raiders on my list, and they outperformed the likes of the Bears and 49ers (and just about everyone else) as they beat the Chiefs.  The Bengals were also a good top-5 play, as they made the most of a poor performance overall by the Eagles on Thursday night. This week, it's kind of "do or die" for the Bears, and I like them to step it up on defense as they travel to face Arizona.  I like the Cardinals in this one too though (at least defensively), so I have both ranked highly this week.  The Chargers and Jets are two more defenses that I like within the same game, which should be about 13-10 with 50-60 turnovers. Good luck if you're still in it to win it! Cheers, Bart