A lot of the experts will update their rankings as more information comes out over the course of the week, so I thought I'd give that a try for Week 15. I'll do this update today and I'll try to give another update either Saturday or early Sunday. We'll see how long this takes, and maybe it'll be something that I'll continue to do for the remainder of this season and into next year as well. I'll also give some notes on my rankings versus the expert rankings. Since I've been getting my rankings out on Tuesday and the expert rankings typically don't come out until Wednesday, this gives me an opportunity to give a comparison on some of the key guys I've mentioned. Let's get into the first edition of the updated rankings...
QBs
1.Cam Newton
2.Drew Brees
3.Peyton Manning
4.Tom Brady
5.Aaron Rodgers
6.Matt Ryan
7.Matthew Stafford
8.RGIII
9.Eli Manning
10.Josh Freeman
11.Andy Dalton
12.Russell Wilson
13.Ben Roethlisberger
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14.Colin Kaepernick
15.Carson Palmer
16.Andrew Luck
17.Matt Schaub
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18.Tony Romo
19.Philip Rivers
20.Brandon Weeden
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It looks like a lot of the experts agreed with me that Cam Newton deserves the top spot this week. That's good news for my fantasy team, as I try to win the loser's bracket and get those extra ping pong balls for my 2013 lottery draft.
The news out of DC is promising for RGIII, and it sounds like he will give it a go against Cleveland. As I said before, if he goes, I think he's a top-10 QB (but not top-5). I've ranked him appropriately based on that previous statement, but several of the experts continue to rank him as a top-5 QB.
The experts also dropped Andrew Luck considerably, as he goes up against a Texans defense that will be looking to redeem themselves after a tough primetime game in New England. I've decided to drop him a little further as I shuffle guys around a little bit.
I thought I liked Josh Freeman a lot this week against that Saints defense, but apparently the experts like him even more. I realize the type of game he could potentially have, but I'm still starting Stafford or Ryan ahead of him. If I had one of those guys and I'm in the playoffs, I don't think I'm getting cute and starting Freeman over them. If you have that tough choice to make, I feel for you because I know tough that can be.
The experts are giving Andy Dalton some love, but Russell Wilson isn't getting as much as I would expect. Wilson is easily among the top-10 QBs over the last 4-6 weeks, and he's playing Buffalo, who is in the bottom 10 in giving up fantasy points to QBs (or top-10, however you want to look at it...they give up a lot of points to QBs!). On top of that, the game is technically an away game, but it's not in Buffalo. This one is going to be played in America, Jr. (our neighbor to the north), so it's not even a true home game for the Bills. Wilson didn't have great numbers last week in the blowout against Arizona, but that's because they ran the ball a thousand times. I don't expect the same against Buffalo, and I think he'll have a much better game than the experts are expecting from him.
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RBs
1.Adrian Peterson
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2.Doug Martin
3.Arian Foster
4.Marshawn Lynch
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5.Trent Richardson
6.Jamaal Charles
7.Ray Rice
8.Chris Johnson
9.Alfred Morris
10.Matt Forte
11.CJ Spiller
12.Knowshown Moreno
13.Darren McFadden
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14.Frank Gore
15.Bryce Brown
16.Steven Jackson
17.DeMarco Murray
18.Benjarvis Green-Ellis
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19.Darren Sproles
20.Ryan Mathews
21.Stevan Ridley
22.Reggie Bush
23.David Wilson
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24.Mikel LeShoure
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25.Shonn Greene
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26.Michael Turner
27.Jonathan Dwyer
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28.Vick Ballard
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29.Montell Owens
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30.Beanie Wells
31.DeAngelo Williams
32.Bilal Powell
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33.Mark Ingram
34.Joique Bell
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35.Alex Green
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36.Jacquizz Rodgers
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37.Ben Tate
38.Daniel Thomas
39.DuJuan Harris
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40.Marcel Reece
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I mentioned that the top 7 guys I've ranked are tough to put in order, but they have all been super consistent and I can't see having anyone else at the top for now. The experts on various sites agree, as it seems those same guys are in the top-7 across the board, just in different orders.
LeSean McCoy has been ruled out for tonight's game, so I've removed him and moved Bryce Brown up considerably. I still don't like him as much as the experts, but I think he's a top-20 play this week.
I said earlier in the week that Ahmad Bradshaw likely sits out this week and David Wilson gets a start. As of right now, I think that could still happen, but we'll have to wait and see. For now I'm leaving Wilson on the list and Bradshaw off, but keep an eye on that injury as Sunday gets closer.
It turns out I am much higher on Matt Forte than the experts, as he is just inside my top-10.
The experts ranked Moreno and Mathews about the same as I did, so no big difference there.
I did rank Mark Ingram a few spots higher than most, but in the mid 30s you might not be considering him as a play anyway.
The experts have ranked Stevan Ridley much higher than I have this week. I realize he's playing well, but the Niners have given up the fewest points to RBs all season. I think he's a low end RB2/flex, not 15th or 16th where he's getting ranked by the experts.
Keep an eye on Ray Rice's hip pointer injury. He's a tough little guy, and I can't imagine him missing a game like this, but you never know. I have him in my elite top-7, but if he can't go due to injury, Bernard Pierce becomes at least a flex play (even against a tough Broncos defense).
WRs
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1.AJ Green
2.Calvin Johnson
3.Andre Johnson
4.Vincent Jackson
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5.Demaryius Thomas
6.Julio Jones
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7.Brandon Marshall
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8.Victor Cruz
9.Marques Colston
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10.Roddie White
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11.Randall Cobb
12.Steve Smith
13.Wes Welker
14.Reggie Wayne
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15.Dez Bryant
16.Pierre Garcon
17.Hakeem Nicks
18.Eric Decker
19.Danario Alexander
20.Mike Wallace
21.Josh Gordon
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22.Sidney Rice
23.Miles Austin
24.Steve Johnson
25.Greg Jennings
26.Lance Moore
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27.Denarius Moore
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28.Kenny Britt
29.Torrey Smith
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30.Golden Tate
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31.Mike Williams
34.T.Y. Hilton
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36.Justin Blackmon
37.Larry Fitzgerald
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38.Brandon Lloyd
39.Dexter McCluster
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40.Donnie Avery
41.Brian Hartline
42.Darrius Heyward-Bey
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It looks like Dez Bryant is going to try to play through his hand injury, so I've added him to the top-20 and moved Miles Austin down a bit. We'll see how this plays out, but if Dez can be the same guy he has been over the last few weeks, he'll deserve to be back in the top-10 next week.
I moved Danario Alexander up a ton, but I still didn't move him up as high as the experts did. I guess they suddenly have faith in Philip Rivers, but as someone who started him for the first half of my fantasy season, I guess I just have a bitter taste in my mouth and can't do it.
I have Josh Gordon as a top-25 WR this week against the Redskins, and on some sites the experts ranked him as highly as I did, and others not so much. I don't see this as a tough call. Weeden will have a solid game, and he will look Gordon's direction a LOT.
Dwayne Bowe sounds like he's not going to play against Oakland, which is too bad considering how many fantasy points the Raiders give up to opposing teams. I'm going to put Dexter McCluster on this list since he's an all-purpose guy who has potential to shred Oakland in one way or another.
Keep an eye on Cecil Shorts this week, as he tries to return after a concussion. Currently I don't have him ranked, but if he plays I think you have to get him back into your lineup as a solid WR2.
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TEs
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1.Jimmy Graham
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2.Tony Gonzalez
3.Aaron Hernandez
4.Jermaine Gresham
5.Jason Witten
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6.Brandon Myers
7.Greg Olsen
8.Kyle Rudolph
9.Heath Miller
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10.Dallas Clark
11.Martellus Bennett
12.Clay Harbor
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I have Gresham in my top five, but the experts barely put him in their top tens. He's the guy I'll hang my hat on this week, as I think he'll near 100 yards and snag a TD against the Eagles tonight.
I removed Owen Daniels and Vernon Davis because of their inconsistency as of late, and I think if you're trying to win a playoff game, you should try someone like Dallas Clark or even Clay Harbor. I think Harbor is a sneaky play if you're just trying to take a flier on someone who might get a lot of points. Brent Celek is out, and Foles had some good connections with Harbor in last week's game, including a TD. Cincy gives up the 10th most fantasy points to TEs, though they've been stingy to them in the past few games. But I think this kid shows up on a Thursday night game when they're the only game on TV. Sometimes guys play just a little harder when given an opportunity like this to shine. It's a risky play, but I think he could end up with a big night.
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DEF
1.Seahawks
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2.Rams
3.Jets
4.Bengals
5.Packers
6.Lions
7.Broncos
8.Steelers
9.Texans
10.Dolphins
11.Titans
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12.Patriots
13.Jags
14.Panthers
I didn't rank the Bears or Niners in my top-14, and I have the Texans pretty far down the list. A lot of the experts are still ranking Chicago pretty high, even though they're playing Green Bay. You'll find the 49ers and Texans on most lists too, though more around 10-12. I just think there are better matchups available this week, and I'd roll with one of them.
With RGIII slated to play, I've removed the Browns from my list and I've added the Patriots. They continue to get it done on the defensive end as well as the offensive side of the ball.
No one seems to have the Rams ranked as highly as I do, which is surprising due to how their defense has been playing lately. Then again, no one seems to be giving Russell Wilson much credit at the QB position either, so maybe it's an east coast bias or something. I don't know.
I've gone back on Jacksonville as a top-14 defense this week, though I think they'll finish somewhere in the middle of all teams this week. I decided to put the Raiders on here instead. I realize how bad their defense can be, but I also realize they're playing at home to the Chiefs, so I'm going to roll with it. I also have the Panthers ranked higher than most experts have them, but I just have a feeling about them in that matchup. I guess we'll have to wait and see if they outperform the likes of the Bears and 49ers.
I hope the update has been helpful. Good luck to anyone who has players in tonight's game, and I'll do my best to get another update out in the next couple of days!
Cheers,
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