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Wednesday, September 26, 2018

2018 Fantasy Football Week 4 Rankings

It always feels super early when you have to scramble to find a quarterback in Week 4 because Cam Newton is already on his bye week. Or maybe you've been super excited about Adrian Peterson or Christian McCaffrey being a top-10 RB through 3 weeks. Well, you'll have to wait until Week 5 to get either back in your lineup. I'm just happy Jordan Reed isn't hurt yet. To me, that's a big win.

In case you missed it, I posted my first ever Rest of Season Rankings earlier this week. I'll try to update that regularly throughout the season. For now, let's get right to the Week 4 rankings!

QUARTERBACKS
In was 5 spots higher on Matthew Stafford versus the ECR for the second week in a row because I believed in Week 2 more than I believed in Week 1. While he didn't have a huge fantasy day against the Patriots, he did nearly have 20 fantasy points and was a viable top-15 play. I'll continue to rank him in my top-10, and I'll also continue to rank his "big 3" WRs in my top-20 or so. I stayed down on Jimmy Garoppolo because I thought the Kansas City defense would play a little better in their home opener. They did pretty well in the first half, but Jimmy G got his fantasy points in the 3rd quarter before suffering what ending up being a season-ending knee injury. The experts were right to rank Garoppolo as a top-12 play, but it looks like I won't have the dilemma about how to rank him for the rest of this season.

This week, I'm not too high on many quarterbacks, but I'm 3 spots higher than the experts on Big Ben. There have been some amazing fantasy numbers for QBs to start this season, and Roethlisberger is less than 3 fantasy points from being in the top-5 through 3 games (if he hadn't lost two fumbles, he'd be right there). I'm not afraid of this Baltimore defense right now without C.J. Mosley, and Ben threw for over 500 yards and a pair of TDs at Heinz Field in this matchup last year. He's better at home than on the road, and that is especially true with his matchups against the Ravens. I think he'll make the most of this one and finish in the top-5 in Week 4.

Carson Wentz is a guy I'm just not that confident in just yet, and I'm 5 spots lower than the ECR on him. He had a pretty weak first game back in Week 3, throwing for 255 yards, 1 TD & 1 INT. This week he's facing a Titans defense that has been pretty tough against opposing QBs to start the season. Considering he likely won't have Alshon back yet, I think it's possible Wentz finishes outside of the top-15 fantasy QBs again.

RUNNING BACKS
In Week 3, I was really high versus the ECR on Chris Ivory (+17), and I mentioned that was likely because I wasn't even ranking LeSean McCoy. I thought Shady would miss this game, and he did. I also said Ivory could be a FLEX play based on volume alone, and he was. He finished with 126 yards from scrimmage and was a top-20 RB.

I was also pretty high on Rashaad Penny though (+12 versus ECR), and my gut call was way off. I thought after Week 2, maybe Penny would get a chance to play a lot more against Dallas. That did NOT happen, and Chris Carson looked like the clear lead back on his way to a top-10 finish. One gut call that was right was my feeling that Alfred Morris would find the end zone in Kansas City. I was +13 versus the ECR on The Butler, and like Ivory, he finished as a top-20 RB. I was way down on Jamaal Williams (-14) because I thought Aaron Jones would hit the ground running after serving his 2 game suspension. Jones clearly looked like the better RB of the two against Washington, and Jamaal Williams barely finished in the top-50.

This week, I'm high on Peyton Barber (+10) and Buck Allen (+7). I realize Barber is facing a stingy Bears defense this week, but he should have the opportunity to at least get things going in the first half. Peyton has the 14th most carries through 3 games. He just hasn't done a lot with those touches. Well, the Bucs seem committed to him right now, and opportunity means a lot in fantasy football. I think Tampa Bay will keep this game close, and Barber could even find the end zone for the first time this year. If that happens, he'll easily find himself in the RB2 conversation. Speaking of touchdowns, Javorius Allen has 4 of them through three weeks. I think this Steelers/Ravens game will be high scoring, and I think Allen will be a part of that scoring. Fire him up as a FLEX.

Who am I down on this week? That would be Kenyan Drake (-10). I know last week's game flow was weird, but even looking at Weeks 1 &2, I have a hard time putting him in my top-20. He just feels like he belongs in the rankings near Dion Lewis and James White rather than Marshawn Lynch and Alex Collins. I think the Patriots will bounce back this week and dominate the Dolphins, and Drake could find himself running low on touches.

WIDE RECEIVERS

In Week 3, I stayed high on John Brown again (+8), and while he didn't finish in the top-30, he did have a serviceable 86 yards receiving and was the top target for Flacco for the third week in a row. I was also high on Tyler Lockett (+9) who is putting up good numbers with Doug Baldwin sidelined. He scored a touchdown for the third time in as many games and was a top-12 WR. However, I was also high on Jag receivers Keelan Cole (+8) and Dede Westbrook (+9), but that game did not go like I thought it would. This was a defensive stalemate, and not many fantasy points were had in the 9-6 Titans win game. I hated to be down on Larry Fitzgerald (-13) because that had burned me in the past, but he hadn't done much with Sam Bradford at the helm, he was facing a tough Bears defense, and he was dealing with a hamstring injury. This was a good call because Fitz finished with just 2 catches for 9 yards. With Josh Rosen now the starter, I've bumped him up ever so slightly, but he'll be hard to trust until he shows he can put up numbers with the rookie.

This week, I'm high on Chris Hogan (+12) and down on Allen Robinson (-10). Hogan's numbers have been all over the place so far, but so have Tom Brady's. I think both get back on track in this game, and Hogan will end up near 100 yards receiving. With Josh Gordon possibly in the lineup this week and Edelman coming back next week, this might be the last game to feel somewhat confident in Hogan for a while. As for Robinson, the targets have been there but the production has not. If he gets more work in the slot in this game, I could see him doing OK. But if he lines up mostly outside, I think Trubisky will continue to struggle getting him the ball, especially against Brent Grimes.

TIGHT ENDS

I stayed high on Will Dissly in Week 3 (+8), but he came back down to earth and was virtually a non factor against the Cowboys. Since I was down on Jimmy G (incorrectly as I mentioned earlier), I was also down on George Kittle. The experts were ranking him as a top-5 fantasy TE, and I had him 9 spots lower than the ECR. The experts were right on this call, so I whiffed on both of my tight end picks last week.

This week, I'm high on Geoff Swaim (+10) and down on David Njoku (-7). Njoku was on a lot of preseason sleeper lists, and some of that might've been due to the Hard Knocks bump. Some of it was certainly for his hands and athletic ability, but he has done very little early on. He's averaging 3 catches for 23 yards right now, and that ain't good. I'm not ranking him in my top-12 until he shows me something with Baker. As for Swaim, I'm not exactly recommending you start him because he's still outside of my top-20 TEs. But I did rank him way higher than the ECR, so I thought I'd at least mention him. He has nearly the same numbers as Njoku through 3 games, and yet the ECR is nearly 25 spots lower on Swaim. Geoff had his best game last week, catching 5 balls for 47 yards. The Cowboy receivers are hot garbage, and I would be surprised if Swaim wasn't at least a little involved in the passing game for the second week in a row.

DEFENSES

I've been nailing my DST picks so far. Last week I was high on the Rams (+4) and down on the Ravens (-4). The Rams were the #2 fantasy defense through two weeks, and I believed in them against the Chargers. They had a blocked punt for a defensive TD and were a top-5 fantasy defense in Week 3. As for Baltimore, I was worried about them with C.J. Mosley out of the lineup. While they did hold the Broncos to 14 points, they also didn't finish anywhere near the top-10 fantasy defenses. They nearly had a pick-6 which would've gotten them there, but that got called back due to a block in the back penalty on the return. Still, I think this defense could struggle to be in the top-10 until Mosley is healthy, and I'm not ranking them in my top-10 this week in Pittsburgh.

This week, I'm high on the Jets (+8), who have been a top-5 fantasy defense this season. Now they're facing a Jags offense that just scored 6 points against the Titans. Even if Fournette plays, I don't think he'll be at 100%. I think the Jets could sneak into the top-12 this week.

I'm down 10 spots versus the ECR on the Vikings tomorrow night because that Rams offense is scary good. I think this game could end up more of a shootout than a defensive struggle, and I don't see the Vikings holding LA to under 27 points. I wouldn't count on Minnesota as a top-12 fantasy defense this week.

Good luck to everyone in Week 4!

(Except you, Philly Jon...)

Cheers,

Bart

Monday, September 24, 2018

2018 Fantasy Football Rest of Season Rankings

Did I mention I love this FantasyPros rankings tool? Well, I do. Just when I thought I couldn't like it even more, the bye weeks hit and it automatically removes players from the Week 4 rankings. But this post isn't about the weekly rankings. That'll come in a couple of days...

As I was clicking around on the Expert Platform, I also noticed other ranking tools available, so I thought I'd try something new here. I don't know if I'll update this weekly or monthly or what, but the Updated Date will be in the top right corner of my ROS (Rest of Season) Rankings, and maybe I'll repost this or something as I update it. Either way, I'm also using a slightly different format so you can easily see some of the notes I've made next to certain players. I'm not going to take the time to make notes for 200+ guys, but I will jot down some of my thoughts on guys who may be injured, holding out, rookies who have yet to get playing time...stuff like that.

OK. Let's get to my first ever edition of my ROS Rankings!

Wednesday, September 19, 2018

2018 Fantasy Football Week 3 Rankings

When the season kicked off a couple of weeks ago, I think I was extra excited for football and got my rankings done early. Last week, they were a little late due to Hurricane Florence. Now we're in Week 3, and I'm back to my regular Hump Day rankings release. I'm also still rolling with the new format that debuted last week. I'm still tweaking my usage of the FantasyPros Expert Platform, but I'm pretty happy with how easy to use their rankings tool is. In case you missed last week's rankings, you'll notice I'm no longer comparing my rankings to just ESPN's. I'm comparing them to the FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings, which I think is a much better representation of expert rankings anyway.

I also updated my rankings last Sunday morning with inactives, and that updated right here on my blog. Pretty neat. I'll continue to try to do that as much as I can, but you know...life and stuff. You'll know how up-to-date my rankings are by looking at the date on the top right of the rankings window.

And with that, let's get to em!

QUARTERBACKS
In Week 2, I was 4 spots higher on both Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford versus the experts. I just didn't understand dropping Rodgers that much, even with the injury and the tough Vikings defense. Well, in a good week for QBs, Rodgers was barely in the top-20. So I guess the experts were right to be cautious with Rah-jahs in Week 2. As for Stafford, I was right in saying he'd bounce back in San Francisco and be a top-10 play. He threw for over 300 yards and 3 touchdowns, and you can believe in him this week against a Patriots team that got lit up by Blake Bortles in Week 2. As you can see, I have him 5 spots higher than the ECR. I trust last week's results more than Week 1, and I think he'll throw the ball 50 times against the Patriots.

I was down on Jimmy Garoppolo last week, and his numbers on Sunday were pretty mediocre without Marquise Goodwin. He completed 18 of 26 attempts for 206 yards and a pair of TDs. He was still an OK play, but well outside of the top-12. I was also down on Cam Newton, who was without Greg Olsen (which worried me). My pick was looking good until the 4th quarter, when Cam threw 2 more touchdowns to go with the one he threw early in the first half. He finished as a top-10 play (just ahead of Matthew Stafford), so I was wrong with that call.

This week, I'm still down on Jimmy G. Yes, that Chief defense has looked terrible to start the season, but this is their home opener. Arrowhead can still be a tough place to play, and I think Garoppolo could struggle. The experts are ranking him as a top-12 play, and I'm just not buying it yet (I'm currently 9 spots lower on him versus the ECR).

RUNNING BACKS

When I initially posted my rankings last week, I was about 10 spots higher than the experts on Tevin Coleman and James White. I wasn't convinced Devonta Freeman would play, so I was way down on him versus the ECR as well. Turns out I was right on Freeman not playing and also about Coleman easily being a top-20 fantasy RB. I actually moved him into my top-12 when I updated my rankings on Sunday, and he nearly finished there (he finished 13th). As for James White, he was the healthiest running back for the Patriots and got the most fantasy points of the bunch. He finished just outside of the top-25, but he outscored Burkhead and Michel by a long shot.

This week, I'm really high versus the ECR on Chris Ivory (+17), but that's probably because I'm not even ranking LeSean McCoy. I think he sits. And even if Shady does play, are you starting him against the Vikings after what you've seen from them (and HIM) through 2 weeks?!? If McCoy plays, I'll drop Ivory out of my ranking altogether. But if he doesn't, then I think Ivory could be a FLEX play based on volume alone. I'm also really high on Corey Clement (+16) because it sounds like Jay Ajayi might not play this week (in addition to Sproles likely being out as well). That may change in the next couple of days, but for now I have Clement poised to break out this week at home against the Colts.

I'm also high on Rashaad Penny (+12) who I think will get a chance to play a lot more this week against Dallas, and I have a feeling Alfred Morris finds the end zone this week in Kansas City (+13). I'm way down on Jamaal Williams (-14) because I think Aaron Jones will hit the ground running after serving his 2 game suspension. Time will tell on some of these RBs, but something tells me that a lot of the young guys are going to start getting more playing time here in Week 3. I think Sony Michel will start to get a lot more work this week too.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Last week I was 13 spots higher than the experts on John Brown, and he scored a touchdown as I was posting my rankings (my Thursday night picks had already been locked in). However, I was also high on Ryan Grant, and that didn't pan out. He caught 8 of 9 targets in Week 1 for 59 yards, and he clearly looked like Luck's #2 WR option. However, he got fewer targets than Chester Rogers against the Redskins, and Luck tends to favor his tight ends after TY. I'll be backing off from him this week. One guy I was down about 10 spots versus the experts was Marvin Jones. I liked Stafford to bounce back against the Niners (and he did), but Tate and Golladay were more productive in Week 1, and I liked for that trend to continue. It did. Golladay looks like a rising star, as he finished as a top-25 WR for the second week in a row. Tate had the most targets with 13, and he finished just outside of the top-25. Meanwhile, Marvin Jones also had a productive fantasy day, but it was 4 catches for 54 yards and a TD. That landed him outside of the top-30 WRs in Week 2. I'll continue to rank him as the #3 WR for Detroit, and I feel like he'll be more of a DeSean Jackson boom/bust type of player in this offense.

This week, I'm high on John Brown again (+8), but I'm also high on Jag receivers Keelan Cole (+8) and Dede Westbrook (+9). I think both make for good plays at home, especially if Fournette and Yeldon are both banged up. I'm also high on Tyler Lockett (+9) who is putting up good numbers with Doug Baldwin sidelined. I hate to be down on Larry Fitzgerald (-13) because that has burned me in the past, but he hasn't done much with Sam Bradford at the helm. He's also facing a tough Bears defense, and he's dealing with a hamstring injury. Not good.

TIGHT ENDS
I won't gloss over the fact that I was down on Travis Kelce last week because I was right about being down on him in Week 1. I doubled down and was wrong, as Mahomes kept rolling to the tune of 6 TDs (two of which went to his stud tight end). But I said to look at my guys in the 14-17 range to see who I was high/low on versus the ECR. In addition to Kelce, I still wasn't feeling Trey Burton just yet. I wanted to see him do something in this new offense before I trusted him as my fantasy tight end. While he only totaled 22 yards, he did find the endzone on a gadget play and ended up as the #12 TE. I'm still not really a believer in him or Trubisky. I was also down on Evan Engram, who did virtually nothing until a garbage time touchdown. It was pretty much the first time the Cowboy defense broke down all night, and Engram ended up as a top-5 TE because of it.

I was reluctantly high on Antonio Gates, who I just felt like would have a 2 catch game, but one of those catches would be in the end zone. Spoiler alert: that didn't happen. I also liked Will Dissly though, and he had another good week! With Doug Baldwin out, I thought Russell Wilson might look to his rookie tight end again to make some plays, and like Engram, he also found the endzone in garbage time. He finished as the 6th best tight end in Week 2 and probably won some fantasy matchups on Monday Night Football.

This week, I'm still high on Dissly (+8), and if I'm not believing in Jimmy G, then I'm not believing in his tight end. I'm just not ready to believe in Kittle as a top-5 fantasy TE like the ECR has him (I have him 9 spots lower than the experts).

DEFENSES

The biggest differences in my rankings last week were the Saints and Cowboys. I didn't believe in the Saints D after they gave up so many points to the Bucs in Week 1, so I had them outside of my top-10. They finished just outside of the top-10 (about where I ranked them), but they did have a solid day against the Brownies. As for the Cowboys, I liked for them to step up against Eli Manning and company in their home opener. I thought they'd easily be a top-15 unit in Week 2, and they didn't disappoint. They shut down the Giants for nearly the entire game before letting up some garbage time points while playing a soft defense with the bus warmed up. They sacked Eli 6 times and finished as a top-5 defense!

This week, I'm high on the Rams (+4) and down on the Ravens (-4). The Rams are the #2 fantasy defense right now and have 4 INTs and one shutout in just two weeks. The Charger offense has looked good, but I'm betting on the Ram D in this one. As for Baltimore, they looked great in Week 1 against a terrible Buffalo offense. But in Week 2, Andy Dalton lit them up when CJ Mosley left the game with an injury. Mosley is the backbone of that defense, and he's likely out this week against the Broncos. I think this defense could struggle to be in the top-10 until Mosley is healthy.

Image result for cj mosley injured

FLEX

As I mentioned last week, this isn't something I put together on the FantasyPros site. The tool actually did it for me, so I wanted to make sure people knew that in case they were looking at that for their flex spot. Coincidentally, the tool put Michael Crabtree and Matt Breida right next to each other in my FLEX rankings in Week 2, and I barely decided to start Crabtree over Breida in my money league. It wouldn't have made the difference in a win or loss, but Breida did have a nice game. I moved him up my rankings this week, and I've also moved him up my ROS (rest of season) rankings. That's right. The FantasyPros site has a tool for that too. I just found it this week, but I'll probably post those in here at some point too. Stay tuned.

As for my FLEX rankings, I actually did mess with those a little this week after taking the default that was provided with the FantasyPros tool (based on my other position rankings). I'll continue to mess with that too, and we'll see how all of this goes.

Good luck to everyone in Week 3!

(Except you, Billy...)

Cheers,

Bart