Monday, April 30, 2018

2018 Fantasy Football Rankings v3

Image result for lamar jackson draftI watched a little more than half of the first round of the NFL draft, but my wife and I couldn't stay awake to see the Ravens make their pick.  We tried, but Baltimore kept trading back!  We woke up the next morning and realized not only did Baltimore take a tight end with their first pick, but they also traded up to get Philly's first rounder...where they drafted Lamar Jackson.  Woa!  Ozzie Newsome changing it up in what is to be his last draft with the Ravens.  You think of Baltimore usually drafting defense in Round 1, but they went with a couple of picks for their offense.  I thought Jackson might go to a team like Arizona or Miami and potentially start right away, but now I'm thinking he won't be the starter until 2019 at the earliest, so he's off my watch list.  I also removed any Giant RBs not named Saquon from my top-180.  Thanks for the clarity at that position, New York!  It really helps me with my rankings.  :)

As for my Redskins, I guess I was OK with them drafting Payne, but I wanted Derwin James there.  I really did.  I also wanted the Caps to not fall apart in the third period and blow a 2-0 lead in Game 1, but we can't always get what we want.  At least they bounced back and took Game 2 though.  It's shaping up to be a great series, as always.

But back to the NFL draft and how it impacted my rankings....

There are plenty of other guys to talk about, and I'll mostly focus on the RBs and WRs.  I won't waste much time talking about QBs.  I was kind of shocked the Browns took Baker Mayfield at #1, but I guess I shouldn't be shocked by anything that organization does.  Poor Tyrod.  I removed him from my rankings, and I don't even have either QB on my watch list.  No thanks.  As for the rest of my rankings, they've shaken up quite a bit.

Let's get right to them, shall we?


1. Le'Veon Bell
2. Todd Gurley
3. Antonio Brown
4. Ezekiel Elliott
5. Alvin Kamara 
6. DeAndre Hopkins
7. David Johnson
8. Dalvin Cook
9. Leonard Fournette
10. Saquon Barkley: I thought he'd fall to the 5-7 range, but the Giants took him at #2. Up two spots.
11. Kareem Hunt
12. Melvin Gordon
13. Odell Beckham, Jr.
14. Michael Thomas
15. Julio Jones
16. Davante Adams
17. A.J. Green  
18. Keenan Allen 
19. Mike Evans
20. Rob Gronkowski 
21. LeSean McCoy 
22. Mark Ingram
23. Devonta Freeman            
24. Doug Baldwin
25. Alshon Jeffery
26. Christian McCaffery
27. Jordan Howard
28. Jerick McKinnon
29. T.Y. Hilton 
30. Tyreek Hill
31. Adam Thielen
32. Demaryius Thomas
33. Jay Ajayi 
34. Derrick Henry
35. Joe Mixon  
36. Aaron Rodgers
37. Travis Kelce
38. Zach Ertz: Moved him up here with Kelce. Could see him ending up as #1 fantasy TE.
39. Amari Cooper
40. Stefon Diggs
41. Larry Fitzgerald: I think Rosen to Fitzgerald could be magic. Up. 
42. JuJu Smith-Schuster: He's up a WR tier with Martavis getting traded to the Raiders.
43. Marvin Jones: He belongs up here too...
44. Michael Crabtree
45. Brandin Cooks
46. Allen Robinson
47. Kenyan Drake
48. Lamar Miller
49. Alex Collins
50. Marlon Mack
51. Derrius Guice: Once thought to be a 1st rounder, ended up with my Redskins in Rd 2. Down. 
52. Tevin Coleman 
53. Ronald Jones: Will presumably be the workhorse back for Tampa. WAY Up.
54. Dion Lewis
55. Aaron Jones: The Packers didn't draft a RB, so he's up to this tier.
56. Russell Wilson  
57. Deshaun Watson  
58. Carson Wentz 
59. Tom Brady: Moved these three QBs back up to make this one giant QB tier.
60. Cam Newton: And bumped Cam above Brees. He has some receivers to throw to now.
61. Drew Brees   
62. Evan Engram: Down a few spots. Saquon likely to get more TDs in the red zone.
63. Greg Olsen: Moved him and Graham up a few spots ahead of some RBs and WRs.
64. Jimmy Graham
65. Golden Tate
66. Corey Davis
67. Jarvis Landry: He and Gordon down a WR tier with this Baker Mayfield nonsense.  
68. Josh Gordon  
69. Devin Funchess: Down slightly with the Panthers drafting D.J. Moore in the first round.
70. Calvin Ridley: Atlanta is a great spot for him to perform in Year 1. Up.  
71. Rashaad Penny: Seattle took him in the first round for a reason.  Way up from #158.
72. Sony Michel: The Patriots took him in Round 1. Their RB usage drives me nuts. Slightly down.
73. Chris Thompson 
74. C.J. Anderson: Still unsigned. Down even more...
75. Royce Freeman: And with C.J. out of the picture, Denver is a great spot for Royce. Up.
76. Will Fuller
77. Julian Edelman
78. Dez Bryant
79. Jordy Nelson: Down slightly with the arrival of Martavis.
80. Kirk Cousins 
81. Kyle Rudolph 
82. Hunter Henry
83. Robby Anderson
84. Kelvin Benjamin
85. Robert Woods
86. Emmanuel Sanders
87. Sterling Shepard
88. DeVante Parker
89. Isaiah Crowell
90. Marshawn Lynch
91. Carlos Hyde: Had him in my top-40 til the Browns drafted Chubb.  Now WAY down.
92. DeMarco Murray
93. Frank Gore
94. Giovani Bernard
95. Sammy Watkins
96. Pierre Garcon
97. D.J. Moore: Cracks my top-100 after the Panthers selected him in the first round.
98. Randall Cobb
99. Chris Hogan: Needed to be up a couple of WR tiers with Cooks gone.
100. Cooper Kupp
101. Andrew Luck
102. Jared Goff
103. Jimmy Garoppolo
104. Jordan Reed 
105. Nick Chubb: Should battle with Carlos Hyde for reps. Down slightly for now.
106. Tarik Cohen
107. Jamaal Williams
108. Rex Burkhead: I had him all the way up at #62, but way down after the Pats drafted Michel.
109. Corey Clement
110. D'Onta Foreman
111. Allen Hurns
112. Nelson Agholor  
113. Marqise Lee 
114. Josh Doctson
115. Mike Williams
116. Jamison Crowder
117. Bilal Powell
118. Theo Riddick
119. Duke Johnson: What will be his role with Chubb and Hyde presumably ahead of him? Down. 
120. Kerryon Johnson: The Lions took him at #43, but they have so many RBs. Cautiously up.
121. Philip Rivers: I know this feels high, but he's a top-12 fantasy QB like every year. Up.
122. Matthew Stafford  
123. Michael Gallup: The Cowboys drafted him in Round 3. I like the pick. Up.  
124. Marquise Goodwin
125. James Washington: A 2nd round pick by Pittsburgh.  He also belongs up the list.
126. Rishard Matthews 
127. Kenny Stills: Down to this WR tier. Inconsistent. 
128. Jordan Matthews
129. Devontae Booker: I'm just going to assume Royce Freeman is better.  Booker down.
130. LeGarrette Blount
131. Samaje Perine: WAY down with the Redskins drafting Guice in Round 2.
132. Doug Martin
133. Latavius Murray
134. Austin Seferian-Jenkins
135. Delanie Walker 
136. Cameron Meredith: With Snead gone, I felt he needed to be higher.
137. Jaron Brown: Now in Seattle, I have a feeling he's in for another career year. Up.
138. Geronimo Allison: Could be the #2 WR with Rodgers throwing to him. Up.
139. Christian Kirk: Went 2nd round to the Cardinals and into my top-150.
140. Matt Breida
141. Nyheim Hines: I could see this little rookie being the third down back in Indy.
142. Ty Montgomery
143. Chris Carson: Was in my top-100 until the Seahawks took Rashaad Penny in Round 1. Down.
144. Peyton Barber: The Bucs drafted a RB early. Barber back down.
145. Tyrell Williams
146. Mike Wallace 
147. Paul Richardson
148. Martavis Bryant: Who knows what he'll do in Oakland. Down slightly.
149. Dede Westbrook: Down with the Jags drafting a WR so high.
150. Terrelle Pryor
151. Brice Butler
152. Tyler Lockett
153. T.J. Yeldon
154. Ameer Abdullah: Kerryon Johnson, Blount, and Riddick likely all ahead of him. Down.
155. Trey Burton
156. Tyler Eifert
157. Mike Gesicki: Drafted in the 2nd round by the Dolphins. Good spot to be a top-15 TE.
158. Matt Ryan
159. Alex Smith: Not sure he belonged anywhere near top-10 QBs in a new system. Down.
160. Jameis Winston 
161. Derek Carr: Moved into top-180. Got Martavis to add to Amari and Jordy.
162. Dak Prescott: No Dez. No Witten. Way down.
163. Ben Roethlisberger
164. Patrick Mahomes: Added him and Sam Darnold up here too. Why not in a keeper league?
165. Sam Darnold
166. Dante Pettis: Drafted in Round 2 by the 49ers. This one is interesting to me, so he's up here.
167. Willie Snead: Added to top-180. Should fill the Maclin role in Baltimore.
168. Mohamed Sanu: Down slightly with the Falcons taking Ridley in the first round.
169. Chargers DEFENSE: Derwin James was a steal at #17. They remain my #1 fantasy defense.
170. Broncos DEFENSE: I love their schedule, and Bradley Chubb was a great addition. Up! 
171. Jaguars DEFENSE
172. Ravens DEFENSE
173. Rams DEFENSE
174. Eagles DEFENSE
175. Vikings DEFENSE
176. Saints DEFENSE: Traded up in 1st Rd for defense. They're a sleeper top-10 D this year. Up.
177. Seahawks DEFENSE
178. Steelers DEFENSE
179. Chiefs DEFENSE
180. Patriots DEFENSE


...and here's my Watch List:


QBs
Marcus Mariota 
Case Keenum
Eli Manning
Blake Bortles
Mitch Trubisky
Andy Dalton

RBs
Jonathan Stewart: The Giants drafted Saquon, so JStew becomes irrelevant.  Down.
James White: Down to the watch list with the Pats drafting Sony Michel.
Jeremy Hill
Jalen Richard
DeAndre Washington
Joe Williams
Austin Ekeler
C.J. Prosise
Eddie Lacy: Still a free agent...
Charles Sims: Still a free agent...
Orleans Darkwa: Still a free agent. Down to watch list. Maybe he'll sign elsewhere...
Rob Kelley
Adrian Peterson
Spencer Ware
Javorius Allen
Kenneth Dixon
Terrance West: Added to the watch list (also currently a free agent).
Chris Ivory
James Connor
Mike Gillislee
Alfred Morris: Still a free agent...
Damien Williams
Tion Green
Elijah McGuire
Thomas Rawls
John Kelly: Drafted late by the Chargers. Stays here for now, but probably should be removed.
Danny Woodhead (RETIRED but still in watch list in case he changes his mind)

WRs
Malcolm Mitchell: Down to the watch list with the Pats signing Jordan Matthews.
Corey Coleman
Jeremy Maclin: Baltimore released him...still a free agent.
Chris Godwin
DeSean Jackson
J.J. Nelson
Kenny Golladay
John Ross
John Brown
Kevin White
Taylor Gabriel: Added to the watch list because he could be the #2 WR in Chicago.
Ryan Grant
Dontrelle Inman: Still a free agent...
Ted Ginn
Brandon Marshall: Giants released him...still a free agent.
Kenny Britt
Keelan Cole
Eric Decker: Still a free agent...
Quincy Enunwa
Travis Benjamin
Mack Hollins
Kendall Wright
Danny Amendola
Albert Wilson
Donte Moncrief
Jermaine Kearse
Jaleel Scott: Drafted by Baltimore in the 4th round. Kind of interesting.
D.J. Chark: Drafted early by the Jags, but they have a lot of WRs, so he'll stay down here.
Anthony Miller: Drafted by the Bears in Round 2. Doubt he'll have value right away. Down.
Courtland Sutton: Denver doesn't feel like a great landing spot with fantasy for Year 1. Down.
Deon Cain: Drafted by the Colts pretty late. He'll stay in the watch list for now.

TEs
O.J. Howard
Jack Doyle
Eric Ebron
Hayden Hurst: Flacco loves throwing to his TEs, but they also drafted Mark Andrews...
Mark Andrews: So I'm leaving both in the watch list for now.
Charles Clay
Austin Hooper
Cameron Brate
David Njoku
Jake Butt
George Kittle
Benjamin Watson

Thursday, April 19, 2018

2018 Fantasy Football Rankings v2

Image result for jerick mckinnon 49ersFree agency saw a lot of players switching teams, so I thought I'd go ahead and get a rankings update done ahead of the draft (which starts a week from tonight).  If you read my initial rankings back in January, you'll recall I highlighted certain players who I thought might move around during the winter.  Jerick McKinnon was someone I thought could end up with a different team, and he now finds himself in a great situation in San Francisco.  Most people expected Jarvis Landry to find a new team too, but that team is the Browns (womp, womp).  Jordy Nelson and Doug Martin are now Raiders.  Michael Crabtree isn't.  Allen Robinson is a Bear, Sammy Watkins a Chief, and Brandin Cooks a Ram.  Kirk Cousins is a Viking, and Alex Smith is the new QB for my Washington R-Words.

You get the idea...new faces in new places.

But now the focus has shifted to the draft, which means the rookies I have ranked below will certainly move around after the dust settles in Texas.  This is my best guess for now though.  I've made notes next to guys who have moved since my last rankings update, which was over 3 months ago.  By "moved" I mean either actual team change in the NFL and/or more than a spot or two from my last rankings.

Let's get to it!


1. Le'Veon Bell
2. Todd Gurley
3. Antonio Brown
4. Ezekiel Elliott
5. Alvin Kamara 
6. DeAndre Hopkins
7. David Johnson
8. Dalvin Cook: With McKinnon gone and Cousins to Minnesota, I moved Cook a bit higher. 
9. Leonard Fournette
10. Kareem Hunt
11. Melvin Gordon
12. Saquon Barkley (R): Up to the first round. I'm thinking he goes #5, 6, or 7 in the draft.
13. Odell Beckham, Jr.
14. Michael Thomas
15. Julio Jones
16. Davante Adams
17. A.J. Green  
18. Keenan Allen 
19. Mike Evans
20. Rob Gronkowski 
21. LeSean McCoy 
22. Mark Ingram
23. Devonta Freeman            
24. Doug Baldwin: Graham and Richardson gone, so Baldwin up a WR tier.
25. Alshon Jeffery: Alshon too. I like for him to improve in Year 2 with Wentz.
26. Christian McCaffery: Jonathan Stewart is out of the picture, so Christian is up a RB tier.
27. Jordan Howard: New coach Nagy loves him some Tarik Cohen, so Howard down a RB tier.
28. Jerick McKinnon: Signed a big deal with 49ers after they let Hyde go. WAY up!  
29. T.Y. Hilton 
30. Tyreek Hill: Down with Sammy Watkins now in KC and Alex Smith gone.
31. Adam Thielen
32. Demaryius Thomas: Up slightly with Keenum now his QB.  He is an upgrade.
33. Jay Ajayi 
34. Derrick Henry: DeMarco is gone, but Dion Lewis is there now. Up slightly, but not a ton. 
35. Joe Mixon  
36. Carlos Hyde: Down a few spots after signing with the Browns.
37. Aaron Rodgers
38. Travis Kelce: Will he still be a top-3 TE with Alex Smith gone? Maybe. Maybe not. Down.
39. Derrius Guice (R)
40. Amari Cooper: Moved him up with Jordy replacing Crabtree.  Cooper in for a big year.  
41. Stefon Diggs: He's up too with Cousins a Viking. Might even be more valuable than Thielen.
42. Michael Crabtree: Call me crazy, but I actually moved him up with the move to Baltimore.
43. Brandin Cooks: Tom Brady to Jared Goff is a big drop off, so he's down to this WR tier. 
44. Allen Robinson: Now with the Bears and up to this WR tier. I like his potential. 
45. Alex Collins    
46. Lamar Miller: He's down because this feels like it could be more of a RBBC in '18.
47. Zach Ertz
48. Evan Engram
49. Russell Wilson   
50. Deshaun Watson 
51. Carson Wentz  
52. Marvin Jones: He was way too low in my initial rankings, and this still might be too low.
53. Jarvis Landry: Now in Cleveland, so obviously down a little. 
54. Larry Fitzgerald: Bradford is his QB Week 1, but what about Week 2 when Sam's hurt? Down.
55. JuJu Smith-Schuster
56. Josh Gordon
57. Marlon Mack: He's way up with Gore gone, but he'll drop if the Colts draft a RB highly.
58. Kenyan Drake: Speaking of Gore, he'll get touches in Miami, so Drake down slightly.
59. Tevin Coleman 
60. C.J. Anderson: Denver released him, and he's down until further notice...
61. Dion Lewis: Now in Tennessee and slightly up with that great O-line.
62. Rex Burkhead: And with Lewis gone, I have to think Burkhead gets more touches. Up too.
63. Sony Michel (R): Lots of buzz around him. More than Chubb even. Had to be in top-100. 
64. Devin Funchess
65. Jordy Nelson: Packers released him...Now with Oakland, so stock down. 
66. Corey Davis: Remember that TD catch against the Pats in the playoffs? Me too. Up.
67. Tom Brady: I liked him more when he had receivers. Down to the top of this QB tier.
68. Drew Brees
69. Cam Newton   
70. Greg Olsen: Moved him and new Packer Jimmy Graham up a TE tier of their own.
71. Jimmy Graham
72. Chris Carson
73. Aaron Jones: He feels like the most likely to win the starting job in Green Bay. Up.
74. Chris Thompson
75. Duke Johnson: Hyde is a better pass catcher than Crowell was. Duke down to this RB tier.
76. Golden Tate 
77. Julian Edelman: Up a little with Cooks gone, but he needs to get healthy.
78. Dez Bryant: He's down a WR tier until we find out where he lands... 
79. Will Fuller: Remember how many TDs Watson threw to him when healthy?  UP!  
80. Kirk Cousins: Up a few spots now that he's in Minnesota.  Has really good WRs and RBs. 
81. Kyle Rudolph 
82. Hunter Henry: He'll move up if Gates retires, but for now he stays here with Rudolph.   
83. Robby Anderson
84. Kelvin Benjamin: Up to the top of this WR tier. He feels like he could be a #1 WR again.
85. Robert Woods: I liked him with Watkins gone, now not as much with Cooks there. Down.
86. Emmanuel Sanders: Like I said, Keenum is an upgrade, so Sanders up.
87. Sterling Shepard: Brandon Marshall is gone. He's the clear #2 guy. Up.
88. DeVante Parker: Jarvis Landry gone, so he's up a little. Parker should get more looks.
89. Ronald Jones (R): This all depends on the draft, but I wanted to get him into my top-100. 
90. Nick Chubb (R): Him too.
91. Isaiah Crowell: Signed with the Jets, so he's down a bit. I have him ahead of Powell though.
92. Samaje Perine: I'm not convinced he can be a workhorse, and Thompson will be back. Down. 
93. Giovani Bernard
94. Marshawn Lynch: The Raiders signing Doug Martin feels telling. Down.  
95. Frank Gore: Indy released him...signed with the Dolphins. Yawn...and down. 
96. DeMarco Murray: One of the last RBs to sign somewhere, so down 40 spots (for now).
97. Pierre Garcon: Assuming he can stay healthy, I felt I had him too low. 
98. Randall Cobb: With Jordy gone, I felt Cobb belonged in the top-100.
99. Sammy Watkins: His fantasy value is TBD with the Chiefs. He barely stays in top-100 for now.
100. Cooper Kupp: Down. He's tough to justify as WR3 in top-100, but he'll round it out.
101. Andrew Luck
102. Jared Goff: Moved him and Garoppolo up here with Luck.
103. Jimmy Garoppolo
104. Jordan Reed 
105. Tarik Cohen: New coach loves him some Tarik...UP!
106. Corey Clement
107. D'Onta Foreman: Up a few RB tiers, as I expect him to be more in the mix this year.
108. Jamaal Williams
109. James White: Up with Lewis gone. The RBs left in NE are him, Burkhead, and now J. Hill.
110. Calvin Ridley (R)
111. Courtland Sutton (R)
112. James Washington (R)
113. Bilal Powell: WAY down with Crowell in town.
114. Theo Riddick: Down with the Lions signing Blount. Too many RBs in the kitchen. 
115. Jonathan Stewart: Released by the Panthers. Signed with the Giants. Down a RB tier.
116. Allen Hurns: Signed with Dallas and WAY up from the watch list with Dez gone. 
117. Nelson Agholor  
118. Marqise Lee 
119. Josh Doctson: With Richardson there, I'm not sure of Docston's breakout. Down. 
120. Mike Williams: I assumed Tyrell Williams would be gone, but he's not. Down a little.
121. Jamison Crowder: Not sure if he'll be a favorite of Alex Smith or not. Down for now.
122. Kenny Stills 
123. Matthew Stafford  
124. Dak Prescott
125. Peyton Barber: He's way up (for now), but I feel like the Bucs will draft a RB in Round 1.
126. Devontae Booker: Same goes for Booker. Barkley seems like a nice spot here for Denver. 
127. LeGarrette Blount: Signed a one year deal with Detroit. WAY up from the watch list.
128. Marquise Goodwin
129. Chris Hogan: Up a little with Brandin Cooks gone.
130. Dede Westbrook: Up a little with A-Rob gone.
131. Mohamed Sanu: Up a little with Gabriel gone.
132. Jordan Matthews: Signed with the Patriots. Easily in top-150.
133. Rishard Matthews 
134. Philip Rivers 
135. Tyrod Taylor: Moved up to this QB tier. I think he'll do just fine in Cleveland.
136. Alex Smith
137. Austin Seferian-Jenkins: Signed with the Jags (who cut Marcedes Lewis). ASJ above Walker. 
138. Delanie Walker 
139. Ameer Abdullah: Down with the Lions signing Blount. Very little confidence here. 
140. Orleans Darkwa: Same with Giants signing Stewart. Not sure what comes of Darkwa. 
141. Doug Martin: The Bucs cut him. The Raiders signed him. Down a RB tier. 
142. Ty Montgomery: He felt way too high.  Not sure of his role in 2018.
143. Latavius Murray: Assuming Cook fully healthy, Latavius shouldn't be much of a factor. Down.
144. Matt Breida: With Hyde gone, I felt he needed to be in the top-150.
145. Martavis Bryant
146. Tyrell Williams: Will he get traded...? Down a little to the top of this WR tier. 
147. Mike Wallace: Now an Eagle and down slightly. No longer the #1 WR option.
148. Jaron Brown: This was a sneaky free agent signing.  He could be Russell's #2 receiver.
149. Geronimo Allison: He cracked the top-150 with Jordy gone.
150. Brice Butler: Good money is on him being the #2 WR in Arizona, so he's in the top-180.
151. Terrelle Pryor: Now a Jet...DOWN!
152. Paul Richardson: Down a little with the move to DC. Might be the #3 or 4 option there.
153. Cameron Meredith: He signed with New Orleans and belongs in the top-180.
154. Tyler Lockett: And he's back up here with Richardson gone.
155. Trey Burton: The Bears gave him a big contract, and he should get way more looks now. Up.
156. Tyler Eifert
157. T.J. Yeldon: Into the top-180 with Ivory now out of the picture.
158. Rashaad Penny (R): Moved a bunch of these rookie RBs down to this tier.  
159. Royce Freeman (R) 
160. Kerryon Johnson (R): And added him to the group. He's graded ahead of Nick Chubb by many.
161. Damien Harris (R)
162. Ben Roethlisberger: Moved Big Ben down to this QB tier.
163. Matt Ryan
164. Jameis Winston 
165. Malcolm Mitchell
166. Michael Gallup (R)  
167. D.J. Moore (R): Lots of buzz around him. Added to this last tier with the rookie wideouts.
168. Anthony Miller (R)
169. Chargers DEFENSE
170. Ravens DEFENSE
171. Rams DEFENSE
172. Jaguars DEFENSE
173. Broncos DEFENSE: Way up with the schedule release.
174. Eagles DEFENSE: Them too...
175. Vikings DEFENSE: Down after the schedule release.
176. Steelers DEFENSE
177. Seahawks DEFENSE
178. Saints DEFENSE: Crack the top-12 D units, mainly due to their schedule.
179. Chiefs DEFENSE
180. Patriots DEFENSE


...and here's my Watch List:

QBs
Lamar Jackson (R): Down to the watch list. It's yet to be seen if he'll have an instant impact.
Derek Carr
Marcus Mariota 
Case Keenum
Blake Bortles
Eli Manning
Andy Dalton
Ryan Tannehill
Mitch Trubisky
Patrick Mahomes

RBs
Jalen Richard: Doug Martin is now a Raider, and Richard is now to the watch list with DeAndre.
DeAndre Washington
Wayne Gallman: Down to the watch list with the Giants signing Jonathan Stewart.
Elijah McGuire
Jeremy Hill: Patriots signed him to a one year deal. Fantasy value TBD...
Joe Williams
Austin Ekeler
C.J. Prosise
Eddie Lacy
Mike Davis
Charles Sims
Rob Kelley
Adrian Peterson
Spencer Ware
Javorius Allen
Kenneth Dixon
Chris Ivory: Signed a two year deal with the Bills.  Meh.
James Connor
Thomas Rawls
Mike Gillislee
Paul Perkins
Alfred Morris
Damien Williams
Tion Green
Bryce Love (R): Way down to the watch list. Haven't seen him highly in mocks.
John Kelly (R)
Danny Woodhead (RETIRED but still in watch list in case he changes his mind)

WRs
Corey Coleman: Browns got loaded at WR. Coleman down to the watch list.
Curtis Samuel: With the Panthers signing Torrey Smith, Samuel down to the watch list.
Jeremy Maclin: Baltimore released him, and he's down to the watch list.
Chris Godwin: Down to the watch list.
J.J. Nelson
Kenny Golladay
John Ross
John Brown: Signed with the Ravens. Stays in watch list for now.
Ryan Grant: Signed with the Colts after failing a physical with the Ravens...
Willie Snead
Kevin White: Who is the #2 WR in Chicago? Him or Taylor Gabriel?
Dontrelle Inman
Ted Ginn
Brandon Marshall
DeSean Jackson
Kenny Britt
Keelan Cole
Eric Decker
Quincy Enunwa
Travis Benjamin
Mack Hollins
Kendall Wright: Signed with the Vikings and could have an impact. Added to watch list.
Jaleel Scott (R): Down to the watch list with these other rookies.
Christian Kirk (R): Added a few more rookies to the watch list...
D.J. Chark (R)
Deon Cain (R)
Dante Pettis (R)
Antonio Callaway (R)
Danny Amendola: Signed with the Dolphins, who lost Landry to free agency. Added to watch list.
Albert Wilson: Now a Dolphin as well...might have more value than Amendola.
Donte Moncrief: Now in Jacksonville in a crowded receiving corps.  Down to the watch list.
Jermaine Kearse: There's talk of the Jets cutting him, and they got Pryor. Down to watch list.

TEs
Jack Doyle: With Ebron now a Colt, I worry there's value for both.
O.J. Howard
Eric Ebron: Moved to watch list. Like I said, I can't see him and Doyle having a ton of value.
Mark Andrews (R)
Dallas Goedert (R)
Mike Gesicki (R): Added another rookie to the watch list, but I doubt any will have Year 1 value.
Hayden Hurst (R): Same with him, but we'll see who drafts him...
Charles Clay
Austin Hooper
Cameron Brate
Jason Witten
David Njoku
Jake Butt
George Kittle: Added him to the watch list.
Benjamin Watson: Back to New Orleans and on the watch list.

Friday, January 5, 2018

Never Too Early 2018 Fantasy Football Rankings

Image result for sad kirk cousinsThe NFL playoffs start tomorrow, which means it's officially the offseason for a lot of teams.  But even though the Redskins and Ravens won't be playing football this month, I'm sure my wife and I will still watch some of the games.  And even though fantasy football is technically in the offseason, that doesn't mean we can't look toward next year, right?  Sure, there's a ton of time between now and fantasy drafts, but it's never too early to start thinking about next season.  In previous years, I followed the lead of most fantasy experts and called these my "Way Too Early" rankings, but I'm changing it to the "Never Too Early" rankings because that's the way I look at them.  I'm going to stick to the format where I break out each chunk of rankings like a round in a mock draft, and I'll have some comments to help explain my rankings of certain players after each group of 12.

You'll also notice that several of the players I highlighted in bold are rookies.  Most of the experts who put together early rankings don't have rookies on their lists.  I'm not sure why that is, but rookies are becoming more and more a part of the fantasy landscape.  This is especially true for running backs in recent years.  There were 3 rookies in the top-10 this season: Hunt, Kamara, and Fournette.  In 2016, there were also 3 in the top-10: Zeke, Gordon, and Howard.  In 2015, Gurley and David Johnson were both top-10 RBs.  Do you see what I'm getting at?  I have no idea what team will be drafting Saquan Barkley, but it'll probably be someone who needs him to be their starting running back right away, and that should put him in the top-10 to 15 RB discussion.  I also ranked Derrius Guice, Bryce Love, and other rookies a bit later based on where I think their value might be for next season. 

Of course a lot will change in the months to come, but this will be a good jumping off point for when I update my rankings in a couple of months.  You may also notice there are NO KICKERS in my rankings because my Yahoo! league finally voted to remove them.  I couldn't be happier to no longer waste time trying to figure out which kicker is going to make a handful of field goals instead of 5 extra points.  I encourage you to try to do the same for your league.  It's quite liberating. 

Anyway, let's get to the rankings, shall we?

Cheers,
Bart


1. Le'Veon Bell 
2. Todd Gurley
3. Antonio Brown
4. Ezekiel Elliott
5. David Johnson 
6. Alvin Kamara  
7. DeAndre Hopkins 
8. Kareem Hunt
9. Leonard Fournette
10. Melvin Gordon
11. Dalvin Cook   
12. Odell Beckham, Jr.

Image result for kareem huntLast year, everyone had Le'Veon Bell and David Johnson as their top-2.  In 2018, I think the top-2 will clearly be Bell and Gurley, and I just happen to have Bell first.  Most will probably have Todd ahead of Le'Veon, but how likely is it that Gurley will be the #1 fantasy RB two years in a row?  Hint: not very.  After Bell/DJ in 2017 and now Bell/Gurley in 2018, Antonio Brown seems to be the clear choice at the #3 spot.  And as long as Big Ben is still the QB in Pittsburgh, no one is going to bat an eye if you decide to take AB at #1 overall.  As for OBJ at the end of the round, ranking him this highly depends on Eli staying in New York for me.  I'm assuming he will, and I'm also assuming that if the Giants draft a QB in the 1st round, that QB will have a year to learn/develop behind Manning.

On a personal note, Kareem Hunt is one of my keepers for next year, and I'm pretty pumped about it.  Spencer Ware could be back in the mix, but he could just as easily find himself released and with a different team next season.  Either way, I'm not worried about Hunt's workload after he proved he could handle it in his rookie campaign.

13. Julio Jones  
14. Michael Thomas
15. Davante Adams 
16. A.J. Green 
17. Keenan Allen 
18. Mike Evans
19. Rob Gronkowski  
20. LeSean McCoy
21. Mark Ingram
22. Jordan Howard
23. Tyreek Hill 
24. Brandin Cooks

Image result for jordan howard bearsDavante Adams is a player who I think I'll be higher on than a lot of experts in 2018.  Jordy is getting old, and the Packers just signed Davante to a big contract.  He finished as the #7 WR in 2016, and he was still in the top-12 in 2017 even though he missed the last two games due to a concussion.  With Aaron Rodgers throwing the ball his way again next season, he should have double-digit touchdowns for the third year in a row, and I think he'll eclipse the 1000 yard mark for the first time in his young career.

My other keeper in my Yahoo! league is likely to be Jordan Howard for the second year in a row.  He's been a top-10 RB in each of his first two years in the league, and I don't see why that won't continue in 2018.  I'm looking forward to starting my draft with two solid RBs already on my team.

25. Saquon Barkley (R)
26. Carlos Hyde  
27. Devonta Freeman
28. Lamar Miller 
29. Christian McCaffery  
30. Travis Kelce
31. Alshon Jeffery
32. Doug Baldwin
33. Adam Thielen 
34. T.Y. Hilton 
35. Jarvis Landry
36. Demaryius Thomas

Image result for saquon barkleyLast year I had a couple of rookie RBs in this round, but this year I have just the one in Saquan Barkley.  Of course he'll need to land in a decent spot to actually have some fantasy relevance in 2018, but that's the assumption if he's a first round draft pick.  In fact, if he's a top-10 pick, he'll end up somewhere like Cleveland, Tampa, or New York (Jets and Giants are both in the top-7).  He'd immediately start for any of those teams, and he'd likely start for Indy or Oakland if their old RBs retire.  There's also speculation that the 49ers let Hyde walk and trade up to get Barkley.  That might be the most interesting scenario of all, but we'll have to wait to see what happens.

I have a feeling Jarvis Landry will sign a big contract with a different team in 2018, but he should stay in this 3rd round area regardless of his team.  In fact, if he gets an upgrade at the QB position, he might even jump into Round 2 for me.

37. Aaron Rodgers
38. Derrick Henry
39. Kenyan Drake  
40. Joe Mixon
41. Jay Ajayi
42. Derrius Guice (R)
43. C.J. Anderson
44. Alex Collins
45. Jordy Nelson 
46. Larry Fitzgerald   
47. Zach Ertz   
48. Evan Engram

Image result for aaron rodgers jordy nelsonI highlighted several players at different positions in this round, starting with the first QB on my list.  In my preseason rankings last year, I had Aaron Rodgers in Round 2, but QB is getting deeper and deeper every year.  Also Rodgers has just the one top-5 finish now in his last 3 seasons, so I doubt I'll select him much higher than this, and I'll likely continue to wait on QB in my fantasy drafts.

Right after Rodgers is Derrick Henry, who I think will finally be handed the keys to the car in 2018.  Henry averaged a full rushing yard per carry better than DeMarco Murray this year, and the timeshare became closer to 50/50.  Now entering his third season, the Titans have to hand over the lead back duties to Henry, right?!?  If they cut ties with DeMarco altogether, Derrick will need to move up even higher than this...maybe all the way into the first round.

You'll notice I also highlighted "old dudes" Jordy Nelson and Larry Fitzgerald.  Again, neither are sexy picks in the top-50, but both could easily be WR2s in fantasy.  Fitz will be 35 and Jordy 33 at the start of the 2018 season, but we know what both are capable of (even in their old football age).  Keep in mind that Jordy had 6 TDs through 5 games in 2017 before Rodgers got hurt in Week 6.  As much as I like Davante Adams, I also still like Jordy.  And I think it'll be the latter who you'll be able to get at a big discount in fantasy drafts in the upcoming season.

49. Russell Wilson   
50. Carson Wentz   
51. Deshaun Watson
52. Tom Brady
53. DeMarco Murray   
54. Marshawn Lynch
55. Frank Gore 
56. Michael Crabtree  
57. JuJu Smith-Schuster
58. Josh Gordon
59. Allen Robinson
60. Amari Cooper

I know what I said about waiting on QB, but here's the thing: I had Deshaun Watson for a few magical weeks this past season in my Yahoo! league.  I know first hand how the guy can win weeks for you.  If he and Wentz are both back to full health for training camps/preseason games, I doubt I'll wait much past the 4th round to try to grab one of them.  This just feels like the time where there could be a mini run on QBs, and I kind of want one of the young guys here.

Don't forget about the old running backs!  While both Lynch and Gore are highly questionable to even be in the league in 2018, both were top-20 RBs in 2017.  Like most people, I kind of expect both to retire.  If they don't though, it's hard not to rank them near the top-25 RBs.

Image result for allen robinson injuryI included Josh Gordon and Allen Robinson in this WR tier, and I think both have super high upside.  We all know about the amazing 2013 season Gordon had, but that sure feels like an eternity ago.  He came back at the end of the 2017 season and flashed that playmaking ability we know he has, so it'll be interesting to see what he can do with the rest of his playing days.  As for Robinson, he was a top-5 fantasy WR in 2015, fell outside of the top-25 in 2016, then tore his ACL this past season after his first catch of the year.  His rookie contract is up, and he's now a free agent.  He's a former 2nd round draft pick with a great combination of size & speed, and he may even need to be higher than this depending on the quarterback throwing the ball to him next year.

61. Tevin Coleman    
62. Isaiah Crowell 
63. Jerick McKinnon
64. Duke Johnson  
65. Samaje Perine    
66. Bryce Love (R)  
67. Dez Bryant  
68. Stefon Diggs 
69. Devin Funchess
70. Marvin Jones
71. Robert Woods
72. Josh Doctson

Image result for jerick mckinnonI've highlighted a couple of running backs who I think I might be high on versus the experts in 2018.  Isaiah Crowell is a free agent, and I could easily see Cleveland letting him sign elsewhere.  Depending on his landing spot, he could thrive in an offense that actually gets to the red zone with some frequency.  The really interesting name for me here is Jerick McKinnon.  I think the Vikings will likely stick with Dalvin Cook and Latavius Murray, so McKinnon could also find himself on a new team in 2018.  I think he could work his way into a feature role, and this could be too low if he ends up in a better fantasy situation.

Maybe my Washington bias is showing a little with Doctson this high, but I think he could make a big leap next season and be the #1 WR our team needs.  Of course if it's not Kirk Cousins throwing the ball to him, I might have to drop him down a peg or two.

73. Cam Newton
74. Drew Brees
75. Chris Thompson 
76. Dion Lewis 
77. Rex Burkhead
78. Chris Carson
79. Hunter Henry
80. Kyle Rudolph
81. Golden Tate    
82. Robby Anderson    
83. Cooper Kupp
84. Jamison Crowder

Image result for hunter henry chargersI've highlighted two Patriot RBs in this round because both are free agents.  While I expect the Patriots to re-sign Lewis or Burkhead, I don't necessarily expect them to re-sign both.  One of these guys will likely drop in my rankings if/when they end up leaving New England.

Speaking of leaving, I fully expect for Antonio Gates to retire after this season, and Tyrell Williams could end up elsewhere in free agency.  That leaves 6'5" Hunter Henry as the big red zone target for Philip Rivers, and I think Henry could end up with double-digit touchdowns in Year 3.  If Gates is out of the picture, this is probably the lowest you'll see Hunter Henry in my rankings before Week 1 of the 2018 season.

85. Ty Montgomery
86. Bilal Powell 
87. Theo Riddick
88. Latavius Murray
89. Giovani Bernard 
90. Jonathan Stewart   
91. DeVante Parker 
92. Corey Davis  
93. Will Fuller
94. Sammy Watkins 
95. Kelvin Benjamin
96. Julian Edelman 

This round includes a few veteran running backs who I think will still have value in the middle rounds of fantasy drafts.  Ty Montgomery may be the biggest question mark of the bunch because he has shown that he might not have the durability needed for the running back position.  I wouldn't be surprised if the Packers switched him back to receiver and went with a combination of Williams and Jones in 2018.  In fact, I have Jones ranked just a few spots lower in the next round.

Image result for sammy watkins
Keep an eye on Sammy Watkins, who just might end up with his third team in less than a year this offseason.  His first couple of years in Buffalo were quite productive, and he has the talent to be a 1000 yard/10 TD receiver.  The wide receiver free agency market certainly is interesting this year.

97. Aaron Jones
98. Marlon Mack
99. Corey Clement
100. Andrew Luck 
101. Kirk Cousins 
102. Greg Olsen
103. Jordan Reed  
104. Mike Williams  
105. Sterling Shepard 
106. Courtland Sutton (R)
107. James Washington (R)
108. Calvin Ridley (R)

This round starts off with a handful of second year running backs who could have a big role on their teams in 2018.  I've already mentioned how I think Aaron Jones could easily take over lead back duties if Montgomery can't be the guy.  If Frank Gore retires, Marlon Mack will need to move way up my list if the Colts don't draft a running back highly in the 2018 draft.  I also fully expect LeGarrette Blount to be out of Philly, leaving Corey Clement to have a complementary role with Jay Ajayi.  Clement could prove to be more than just a quality handcuff, but rather a RB who has value on his own in a high-powered offense.

Image result for courtland suttonLast year, I actually ranked rookie wideouts Mike Williams and Corey Davis in the 70s.  But seeing as how neither did much in their rookie seasons, it has me a little gun shy.  Now right around the 100 mark, I've ranked who I think will be the top-3 wideouts in this year's draft.  I also have Mike Williams here, who could find himself in a position to catch a lot of balls next year if Tyrell Williams ends up with a new team.
    
109. Orleans Darkwa
110. Jamaal Williams
111. Ronald Jones (R)
112. Damien Harris (R)
113. Pierre Garcon 
114. Emmanuel Sanders
115. Nelson Agholor 
116. Randall Cobb 
117. Kenny Stills 
118. Mike Wallace 
119. Marqise Lee
120. Tyrell Williams

Image result for orleans darkwaI have a couple of RBs with question marks and a couple of rookies at the beginning of this round.  Orleans Darkwa is interesting to me because he had the game of his life in Week 17 in a win over the Redskins, and he's now a free agent.  Will the Giants bring him back?  Will they draft a RB?  Personally, I think New York might do both, and I think Darkwa still could find himself as the early-down RB for the Giants in 2018.

Keep an eye on free-agents-to-be Marqise Lee and Tyrell Williams, both of whom could find themselves in positions to try to be a #1 or #2 WR somewhere else.

121. Jared Goff 
122. Dak Prescott 
123. Matthew Stafford  
124. Jimmy Garoppolo   
125. Philip Rivers
126. Ben Roethlisberger
127. Alex Smith
128. Marquise Goodwin
129. Donte Moncrief  
130. Rishard Matthews 
131. Terrelle Pryor 
132. Paul Richardson

Image result for jimmy garoppolo 49ersIt's weird to think that I might be too LOW on Jimmy G as my #13 QB, but that's the reality of his hype train.  The guy had a strong finish to 2017 with the 49ers, and a full season with Kyle Shanahan could mean a top-10 fantasy season.  I'll probably struggle with ranking him, but for now, he's in this huge chunk of QBs that are all difficult to separate from one another.

I'm not super excited about the WRs in this round, but Terrelle Pyror and Paul Richardson are both free agents who could be with different teams next season.  So there's something to highlight I guess.

On a quasi-interesting side note, I actually had 3 defenses during this round in my early edition of rankings last year.  Those defenses were the Chiefs, Seahawks, and Broncos.  Of the three, only the Seahawks finished as a top-10 fantasy defense in 2017 (and even then, just barely).  I think streaming defenses is the way to go, and I won't make the mistake of ranking a defense this highly again.  Everyone will jump on the Jags early, and I say let 'em.  I'll probably just get a defense with a good Week 1 matchup and go from there.

133. Ameer Abdullah 
134. Doug Martin
135. Nick Chubb (R)
136. Rashaad Penny (R)
137. Royce Freeman (R)
138. Jalen Richard
139. Tarik Cohen  
140. Wayne Gallman
141. Jimmy Graham  
142. Delanie Walker
143. Jack Doyle     
144. Austin Seferian-Jenkins

Nick Chubb has been a beast at the University of Georgia, and his running style very well could translate into a powerful back in the NFL.  I might have him too low here at 135.  I also feel like this could be too low for Rashaad Penny, though I admittedly have never seen him play football.  He had 221 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns on just 14 carries in the Armed Forces Bowl.  The guy had almost 2500 total yards in his senior season, and he found the endzone 25 times!  His former teammate Donnel Pumphrey also thrived in that same offense, got drafted in the 4th round last year, and didn't play a snap this season due to a torn hamstring that landed him on the IR.  So it's hard to make a comparison there.  Either way, I think Chubb and Penny both might move way up my board when I update my rankings after the draft. 

Image result for austin seferian-jenkinsDon't laugh at Austin Seferian-Jenkins rounding out my top-12 tight ends.  Seriously.  Stop laughing!  He got off to a hot start in 2017, but so did the Jets.  Both quickly cooled off, and ASJ ended up with a pretty mediocre season.  He's now a free agent though, and a change of scenery (and a better quarterback) could mean a much better finish in 2018.

145. Corey Coleman
146. Martavis Bryant  
147. Jermaine Kearse 
148. Dede Westbrook 
149. Chris Hogan   
150. Mohamed Sanu
151. Jeremy Maclin 
152. D'Onta Foreman 
153. Peyton Barber
154. Devontae Booker   
155. James White   
156. Danny Woodhead

Image result for d'onta foreman injuryD'Onta Foreman is a guy I like a lot (and who I think the Texans like a lot too).  If he can get/stay healthy next year, he could take a big bite out of Lamar Miller's touches.  This will probably be too low for him if he looks good in training camp, but coming back from a torn Achilles can be tough.  I didn't really want to rank Peyton Barber, but it's hard not to based on the current running back situation in Tampa.  If the Bucs draft a RB in the first couple of rounds and keep Doug Martin though, Barber falls off my big board.  But until that happens, he'll likely continue to have an opportunity to get some carries in a decent offense.

157. Matt Ryan 
158. Jameis Winston 
159. Lamar Jackson (R)
160. Tyrod Taylor  
161. Michael Gallup (R)
162. Anthony Miller (R)
163. Jaleel Scott (R)
164. Curtis Samuel
165. Chris Godwin
166. Malcolm Mitchell 
167. Tyler Eifert
168. Eric Ebron

Yeah I ranked Lamar Jackson in my top-180.  What of it?!?  I think it's very possible he gets drafted in the first couple of rounds and starts right away for a team like the Jets, Cardinals, or even the Bills if they move on from Tyrod.  It's also possible Jackson is a clear backup to start the 2018 season and drops out of my rankings altogether.  But if that second scenario happens, just keep in mind that Deshaun Watson was also a backup to start his rookie year... 

Image result for malcolm mitchell patriots super bowlLast year before free agency started, I assumed Ted Ginn would leave Carolina, and I highlighted Devin Funchess as a potential 3rd year WR breakout candidate.  That turned out to be a good call, and Funchess ended up higher in my rankings by the time the season rolled around.  I've already ranked a bunch of third year WRs before this round, but don't forget about Malcolm Mitchell when the 2018 season kicks off.  He had 400 yards and 4 TDs in his rookie year, and he caught 6 balls for 70 yards in the Super Bowl win over Atlanta.  He missed all of 2017 due to a knee injury, but if he's healthy to start next season and the Patriots decide to let a couple of guys go, Mitchell could find himself as the #3 or 4 option for Mr. Tom Brady.

169. Chargers DEFENSE
170. Jaguars DEFENSE
171. Ravens DEFENSE  
172. Vikings DEFENSE
173. Rams DEFENSE  
174. Steelers DEFENSE
175. Seahawks DEFENSE
176. Panthers DEFENSE  
177. Chiefs DEFENSE 
178. Eagles DEFENSE
179. Broncos DEFENSE
180. Patriots DEFENSE

Image result for chargers bosa ingramIt's now after the 14th round of a 12-team league's draft, so here are the defenses.  My Yahoo! league doesn't even have this many rounds, so I'll need to move defenses up my rankings at some point.  But for now, here they are.  I had the Steelers D in the first half of the 2017 season and the Chargers D for the second half.  I like both a lot heading into next season, and I actually have the Chargers ahead of Jacksonville for my top spot.  When big players move in free agency and the schedules come out, that's when I'll be adjusting my defensive rankings.  You may see teams like the Lions, Cardinals, or even my Redskins sneak into the top-12 before September.  Who knows?

I could add a few more players to give you a top-200 and a nice number, but I won't.  I'll leave it at 180, and I'll give you a few more players below at each position who I'll consider ranking later this year.  There will likely be many more to add to this list, but this is more than plenty for now:

QBs
Derek Carr
Marcus Mariota 
Blake Bortles
Eli Manning
Andy Dalton
DeShone Kizer
Ryan Tannehill
Case Keenum

RBs
DeAndre Washington
Elijah McGuire
Matt Forte
Matt Breida
Joe Williams
Austin Ekeler
C.J. Prosise
Thomas Rawls
Eddie Lacy
Mike Davis
Charles Sims
LeGarrette Blount 
Rob Kelley
Adrian Peterson
Spencer Ware
Javorius Allen
Kenneth Dixon
T.J. Yeldon
Chris Ivory
James Connor
Mike Gillislee
Jeremy Hill
Paul Perkins
Alfred Morris
Damien Williams
Tion Green

WRs
Tyler Lockett 
Jordan Matthews
Kenny Golladay
John Ross
J.J. Nelson
John Brown
Willie Snead
Cameron Meredith
Dontrelle Inman
Zay Jones
Ted Ginn
Brandon Marshall
DeSean Jackson
Kenny Britt
Allen Hurns
Keelan Cole
Eric Decker
Quincy Enunwa
Travis Benjamin
Mack Hollins

TEs
O.J. Howard
Mark Andrews (R)
Dallas Goedert (R)
Charles Clay
Austin Hooper
Cameron Brate
Jason Witten
David Njoku
Adam Shaheen
Jake Butt