Friday, January 5, 2018

Never Too Early 2018 Fantasy Football Rankings

Image result for sad kirk cousinsThe NFL playoffs start tomorrow, which means it's officially the offseason for a lot of teams.  But even though the Redskins and Ravens won't be playing football this month, I'm sure my wife and I will still watch some of the games.  And even though fantasy football is technically in the offseason, that doesn't mean we can't look toward next year, right?  Sure, there's a ton of time between now and fantasy drafts, but it's never too early to start thinking about next season.  In previous years, I followed the lead of most fantasy experts and called these my "Way Too Early" rankings, but I'm changing it to the "Never Too Early" rankings because that's the way I look at them.  I'm going to stick to the format where I break out each chunk of rankings like a round in a mock draft, and I'll have some comments to help explain my rankings of certain players after each group of 12.

You'll also notice that several of the players I highlighted in bold are rookies.  Most of the experts who put together early rankings don't have rookies on their lists.  I'm not sure why that is, but rookies are becoming more and more a part of the fantasy landscape.  This is especially true for running backs in recent years.  There were 3 rookies in the top-10 this season: Hunt, Kamara, and Fournette.  In 2016, there were also 3 in the top-10: Zeke, Gordon, and Howard.  In 2015, Gurley and David Johnson were both top-10 RBs.  Do you see what I'm getting at?  I have no idea what team will be drafting Saquan Barkley, but it'll probably be someone who needs him to be their starting running back right away, and that should put him in the top-10 to 15 RB discussion.  I also ranked Derrius Guice, Bryce Love, and other rookies a bit later based on where I think their value might be for next season. 

Of course a lot will change in the months to come, but this will be a good jumping off point for when I update my rankings in a couple of months.  You may also notice there are NO KICKERS in my rankings because my Yahoo! league finally voted to remove them.  I couldn't be happier to no longer waste time trying to figure out which kicker is going to make a handful of field goals instead of 5 extra points.  I encourage you to try to do the same for your league.  It's quite liberating. 

Anyway, let's get to the rankings, shall we?

Cheers,
Bart


1. Le'Veon Bell 
2. Todd Gurley
3. Antonio Brown
4. Ezekiel Elliott
5. David Johnson 
6. Alvin Kamara  
7. DeAndre Hopkins 
8. Kareem Hunt
9. Leonard Fournette
10. Melvin Gordon
11. Dalvin Cook   
12. Odell Beckham, Jr.

Image result for kareem huntLast year, everyone had Le'Veon Bell and David Johnson as their top-2.  In 2018, I think the top-2 will clearly be Bell and Gurley, and I just happen to have Bell first.  Most will probably have Todd ahead of Le'Veon, but how likely is it that Gurley will be the #1 fantasy RB two years in a row?  Hint: not very.  After Bell/DJ in 2017 and now Bell/Gurley in 2018, Antonio Brown seems to be the clear choice at the #3 spot.  And as long as Big Ben is still the QB in Pittsburgh, no one is going to bat an eye if you decide to take AB at #1 overall.  As for OBJ at the end of the round, ranking him this highly depends on Eli staying in New York for me.  I'm assuming he will, and I'm also assuming that if the Giants draft a QB in the 1st round, that QB will have a year to learn/develop behind Manning.

On a personal note, Kareem Hunt is one of my keepers for next year, and I'm pretty pumped about it.  Spencer Ware could be back in the mix, but he could just as easily find himself released and with a different team next season.  Either way, I'm not worried about Hunt's workload after he proved he could handle it in his rookie campaign.

13. Julio Jones  
14. Michael Thomas
15. Davante Adams 
16. A.J. Green 
17. Keenan Allen 
18. Mike Evans
19. Rob Gronkowski  
20. LeSean McCoy
21. Mark Ingram
22. Jordan Howard
23. Tyreek Hill 
24. Brandin Cooks

Image result for jordan howard bearsDavante Adams is a player who I think I'll be higher on than a lot of experts in 2018.  Jordy is getting old, and the Packers just signed Davante to a big contract.  He finished as the #7 WR in 2016, and he was still in the top-12 in 2017 even though he missed the last two games due to a concussion.  With Aaron Rodgers throwing the ball his way again next season, he should have double-digit touchdowns for the third year in a row, and I think he'll eclipse the 1000 yard mark for the first time in his young career.

My other keeper in my Yahoo! league is likely to be Jordan Howard for the second year in a row.  He's been a top-10 RB in each of his first two years in the league, and I don't see why that won't continue in 2018.  I'm looking forward to starting my draft with two solid RBs already on my team.

25. Saquon Barkley (R)
26. Carlos Hyde  
27. Devonta Freeman
28. Lamar Miller 
29. Christian McCaffery  
30. Travis Kelce
31. Alshon Jeffery
32. Doug Baldwin
33. Adam Thielen 
34. T.Y. Hilton 
35. Jarvis Landry
36. Demaryius Thomas

Image result for saquon barkleyLast year I had a couple of rookie RBs in this round, but this year I have just the one in Saquan Barkley.  Of course he'll need to land in a decent spot to actually have some fantasy relevance in 2018, but that's the assumption if he's a first round draft pick.  In fact, if he's a top-10 pick, he'll end up somewhere like Cleveland, Tampa, or New York (Jets and Giants are both in the top-7).  He'd immediately start for any of those teams, and he'd likely start for Indy or Oakland if their old RBs retire.  There's also speculation that the 49ers let Hyde walk and trade up to get Barkley.  That might be the most interesting scenario of all, but we'll have to wait to see what happens.

I have a feeling Jarvis Landry will sign a big contract with a different team in 2018, but he should stay in this 3rd round area regardless of his team.  In fact, if he gets an upgrade at the QB position, he might even jump into Round 2 for me.

37. Aaron Rodgers
38. Derrick Henry
39. Kenyan Drake  
40. Joe Mixon
41. Jay Ajayi
42. Derrius Guice (R)
43. C.J. Anderson
44. Alex Collins
45. Jordy Nelson 
46. Larry Fitzgerald   
47. Zach Ertz   
48. Evan Engram

Image result for aaron rodgers jordy nelsonI highlighted several players at different positions in this round, starting with the first QB on my list.  In my preseason rankings last year, I had Aaron Rodgers in Round 2, but QB is getting deeper and deeper every year.  Also Rodgers has just the one top-5 finish now in his last 3 seasons, so I doubt I'll select him much higher than this, and I'll likely continue to wait on QB in my fantasy drafts.

Right after Rodgers is Derrick Henry, who I think will finally be handed the keys to the car in 2018.  Henry averaged a full rushing yard per carry better than DeMarco Murray this year, and the timeshare became closer to 50/50.  Now entering his third season, the Titans have to hand over the lead back duties to Henry, right?!?  If they cut ties with DeMarco altogether, Derrick will need to move up even higher than this...maybe all the way into the first round.

You'll notice I also highlighted "old dudes" Jordy Nelson and Larry Fitzgerald.  Again, neither are sexy picks in the top-50, but both could easily be WR2s in fantasy.  Fitz will be 35 and Jordy 33 at the start of the 2018 season, but we know what both are capable of (even in their old football age).  Keep in mind that Jordy had 6 TDs through 5 games in 2017 before Rodgers got hurt in Week 6.  As much as I like Davante Adams, I also still like Jordy.  And I think it'll be the latter who you'll be able to get at a big discount in fantasy drafts in the upcoming season.

49. Russell Wilson   
50. Carson Wentz   
51. Deshaun Watson
52. Tom Brady
53. DeMarco Murray   
54. Marshawn Lynch
55. Frank Gore 
56. Michael Crabtree  
57. JuJu Smith-Schuster
58. Josh Gordon
59. Allen Robinson
60. Amari Cooper

I know what I said about waiting on QB, but here's the thing: I had Deshaun Watson for a few magical weeks this past season in my Yahoo! league.  I know first hand how the guy can win weeks for you.  If he and Wentz are both back to full health for training camps/preseason games, I doubt I'll wait much past the 4th round to try to grab one of them.  This just feels like the time where there could be a mini run on QBs, and I kind of want one of the young guys here.

Don't forget about the old running backs!  While both Lynch and Gore are highly questionable to even be in the league in 2018, both were top-20 RBs in 2017.  Like most people, I kind of expect both to retire.  If they don't though, it's hard not to rank them near the top-25 RBs.

Image result for allen robinson injuryI included Josh Gordon and Allen Robinson in this WR tier, and I think both have super high upside.  We all know about the amazing 2013 season Gordon had, but that sure feels like an eternity ago.  He came back at the end of the 2017 season and flashed that playmaking ability we know he has, so it'll be interesting to see what he can do with the rest of his playing days.  As for Robinson, he was a top-5 fantasy WR in 2015, fell outside of the top-25 in 2016, then tore his ACL this past season after his first catch of the year.  His rookie contract is up, and he's now a free agent.  He's a former 2nd round draft pick with a great combination of size & speed, and he may even need to be higher than this depending on the quarterback throwing the ball to him next year.

61. Tevin Coleman    
62. Isaiah Crowell 
63. Jerick McKinnon
64. Duke Johnson  
65. Samaje Perine    
66. Bryce Love (R)  
67. Dez Bryant  
68. Stefon Diggs 
69. Devin Funchess
70. Marvin Jones
71. Robert Woods
72. Josh Doctson

Image result for jerick mckinnonI've highlighted a couple of running backs who I think I might be high on versus the experts in 2018.  Isaiah Crowell is a free agent, and I could easily see Cleveland letting him sign elsewhere.  Depending on his landing spot, he could thrive in an offense that actually gets to the red zone with some frequency.  The really interesting name for me here is Jerick McKinnon.  I think the Vikings will likely stick with Dalvin Cook and Latavius Murray, so McKinnon could also find himself on a new team in 2018.  I think he could work his way into a feature role, and this could be too low if he ends up in a better fantasy situation.

Maybe my Washington bias is showing a little with Doctson this high, but I think he could make a big leap next season and be the #1 WR our team needs.  Of course if it's not Kirk Cousins throwing the ball to him, I might have to drop him down a peg or two.

73. Cam Newton
74. Drew Brees
75. Chris Thompson 
76. Dion Lewis 
77. Rex Burkhead
78. Chris Carson
79. Hunter Henry
80. Kyle Rudolph
81. Golden Tate    
82. Robby Anderson    
83. Cooper Kupp
84. Jamison Crowder

Image result for hunter henry chargersI've highlighted two Patriot RBs in this round because both are free agents.  While I expect the Patriots to re-sign Lewis or Burkhead, I don't necessarily expect them to re-sign both.  One of these guys will likely drop in my rankings if/when they end up leaving New England.

Speaking of leaving, I fully expect for Antonio Gates to retire after this season, and Tyrell Williams could end up elsewhere in free agency.  That leaves 6'5" Hunter Henry as the big red zone target for Philip Rivers, and I think Henry could end up with double-digit touchdowns in Year 3.  If Gates is out of the picture, this is probably the lowest you'll see Hunter Henry in my rankings before Week 1 of the 2018 season.

85. Ty Montgomery
86. Bilal Powell 
87. Theo Riddick
88. Latavius Murray
89. Giovani Bernard 
90. Jonathan Stewart   
91. DeVante Parker 
92. Corey Davis  
93. Will Fuller
94. Sammy Watkins 
95. Kelvin Benjamin
96. Julian Edelman 

This round includes a few veteran running backs who I think will still have value in the middle rounds of fantasy drafts.  Ty Montgomery may be the biggest question mark of the bunch because he has shown that he might not have the durability needed for the running back position.  I wouldn't be surprised if the Packers switched him back to receiver and went with a combination of Williams and Jones in 2018.  In fact, I have Jones ranked just a few spots lower in the next round.

Image result for sammy watkins
Keep an eye on Sammy Watkins, who just might end up with his third team in less than a year this offseason.  His first couple of years in Buffalo were quite productive, and he has the talent to be a 1000 yard/10 TD receiver.  The wide receiver free agency market certainly is interesting this year.

97. Aaron Jones
98. Marlon Mack
99. Corey Clement
100. Andrew Luck 
101. Kirk Cousins 
102. Greg Olsen
103. Jordan Reed  
104. Mike Williams  
105. Sterling Shepard 
106. Courtland Sutton (R)
107. James Washington (R)
108. Calvin Ridley (R)

This round starts off with a handful of second year running backs who could have a big role on their teams in 2018.  I've already mentioned how I think Aaron Jones could easily take over lead back duties if Montgomery can't be the guy.  If Frank Gore retires, Marlon Mack will need to move way up my list if the Colts don't draft a running back highly in the 2018 draft.  I also fully expect LeGarrette Blount to be out of Philly, leaving Corey Clement to have a complementary role with Jay Ajayi.  Clement could prove to be more than just a quality handcuff, but rather a RB who has value on his own in a high-powered offense.

Image result for courtland suttonLast year, I actually ranked rookie wideouts Mike Williams and Corey Davis in the 70s.  But seeing as how neither did much in their rookie seasons, it has me a little gun shy.  Now right around the 100 mark, I've ranked who I think will be the top-3 wideouts in this year's draft.  I also have Mike Williams here, who could find himself in a position to catch a lot of balls next year if Tyrell Williams ends up with a new team.
    
109. Orleans Darkwa
110. Jamaal Williams
111. Ronald Jones (R)
112. Damien Harris (R)
113. Pierre Garcon 
114. Emmanuel Sanders
115. Nelson Agholor 
116. Randall Cobb 
117. Kenny Stills 
118. Mike Wallace 
119. Marqise Lee
120. Tyrell Williams

Image result for orleans darkwaI have a couple of RBs with question marks and a couple of rookies at the beginning of this round.  Orleans Darkwa is interesting to me because he had the game of his life in Week 17 in a win over the Redskins, and he's now a free agent.  Will the Giants bring him back?  Will they draft a RB?  Personally, I think New York might do both, and I think Darkwa still could find himself as the early-down RB for the Giants in 2018.

Keep an eye on free-agents-to-be Marqise Lee and Tyrell Williams, both of whom could find themselves in positions to try to be a #1 or #2 WR somewhere else.

121. Jared Goff 
122. Dak Prescott 
123. Matthew Stafford  
124. Jimmy Garoppolo   
125. Philip Rivers
126. Ben Roethlisberger
127. Alex Smith
128. Marquise Goodwin
129. Donte Moncrief  
130. Rishard Matthews 
131. Terrelle Pryor 
132. Paul Richardson

Image result for jimmy garoppolo 49ersIt's weird to think that I might be too LOW on Jimmy G as my #13 QB, but that's the reality of his hype train.  The guy had a strong finish to 2017 with the 49ers, and a full season with Kyle Shanahan could mean a top-10 fantasy season.  I'll probably struggle with ranking him, but for now, he's in this huge chunk of QBs that are all difficult to separate from one another.

I'm not super excited about the WRs in this round, but Terrelle Pyror and Paul Richardson are both free agents who could be with different teams next season.  So there's something to highlight I guess.

On a quasi-interesting side note, I actually had 3 defenses during this round in my early edition of rankings last year.  Those defenses were the Chiefs, Seahawks, and Broncos.  Of the three, only the Seahawks finished as a top-10 fantasy defense in 2017 (and even then, just barely).  I think streaming defenses is the way to go, and I won't make the mistake of ranking a defense this highly again.  Everyone will jump on the Jags early, and I say let 'em.  I'll probably just get a defense with a good Week 1 matchup and go from there.

133. Ameer Abdullah 
134. Doug Martin
135. Nick Chubb (R)
136. Rashaad Penny (R)
137. Royce Freeman (R)
138. Jalen Richard
139. Tarik Cohen  
140. Wayne Gallman
141. Jimmy Graham  
142. Delanie Walker
143. Jack Doyle     
144. Austin Seferian-Jenkins

Nick Chubb has been a beast at the University of Georgia, and his running style very well could translate into a powerful back in the NFL.  I might have him too low here at 135.  I also feel like this could be too low for Rashaad Penny, though I admittedly have never seen him play football.  He had 221 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns on just 14 carries in the Armed Forces Bowl.  The guy had almost 2500 total yards in his senior season, and he found the endzone 25 times!  His former teammate Donnel Pumphrey also thrived in that same offense, got drafted in the 4th round last year, and didn't play a snap this season due to a torn hamstring that landed him on the IR.  So it's hard to make a comparison there.  Either way, I think Chubb and Penny both might move way up my board when I update my rankings after the draft. 

Image result for austin seferian-jenkinsDon't laugh at Austin Seferian-Jenkins rounding out my top-12 tight ends.  Seriously.  Stop laughing!  He got off to a hot start in 2017, but so did the Jets.  Both quickly cooled off, and ASJ ended up with a pretty mediocre season.  He's now a free agent though, and a change of scenery (and a better quarterback) could mean a much better finish in 2018.

145. Corey Coleman
146. Martavis Bryant  
147. Jermaine Kearse 
148. Dede Westbrook 
149. Chris Hogan   
150. Mohamed Sanu
151. Jeremy Maclin 
152. D'Onta Foreman 
153. Peyton Barber
154. Devontae Booker   
155. James White   
156. Danny Woodhead

Image result for d'onta foreman injuryD'Onta Foreman is a guy I like a lot (and who I think the Texans like a lot too).  If he can get/stay healthy next year, he could take a big bite out of Lamar Miller's touches.  This will probably be too low for him if he looks good in training camp, but coming back from a torn Achilles can be tough.  I didn't really want to rank Peyton Barber, but it's hard not to based on the current running back situation in Tampa.  If the Bucs draft a RB in the first couple of rounds and keep Doug Martin though, Barber falls off my big board.  But until that happens, he'll likely continue to have an opportunity to get some carries in a decent offense.

157. Matt Ryan 
158. Jameis Winston 
159. Lamar Jackson (R)
160. Tyrod Taylor  
161. Michael Gallup (R)
162. Anthony Miller (R)
163. Jaleel Scott (R)
164. Curtis Samuel
165. Chris Godwin
166. Malcolm Mitchell 
167. Tyler Eifert
168. Eric Ebron

Yeah I ranked Lamar Jackson in my top-180.  What of it?!?  I think it's very possible he gets drafted in the first couple of rounds and starts right away for a team like the Jets, Cardinals, or even the Bills if they move on from Tyrod.  It's also possible Jackson is a clear backup to start the 2018 season and drops out of my rankings altogether.  But if that second scenario happens, just keep in mind that Deshaun Watson was also a backup to start his rookie year... 

Image result for malcolm mitchell patriots super bowlLast year before free agency started, I assumed Ted Ginn would leave Carolina, and I highlighted Devin Funchess as a potential 3rd year WR breakout candidate.  That turned out to be a good call, and Funchess ended up higher in my rankings by the time the season rolled around.  I've already ranked a bunch of third year WRs before this round, but don't forget about Malcolm Mitchell when the 2018 season kicks off.  He had 400 yards and 4 TDs in his rookie year, and he caught 6 balls for 70 yards in the Super Bowl win over Atlanta.  He missed all of 2017 due to a knee injury, but if he's healthy to start next season and the Patriots decide to let a couple of guys go, Mitchell could find himself as the #3 or 4 option for Mr. Tom Brady.

169. Chargers DEFENSE
170. Jaguars DEFENSE
171. Ravens DEFENSE  
172. Vikings DEFENSE
173. Rams DEFENSE  
174. Steelers DEFENSE
175. Seahawks DEFENSE
176. Panthers DEFENSE  
177. Chiefs DEFENSE 
178. Eagles DEFENSE
179. Broncos DEFENSE
180. Patriots DEFENSE

Image result for chargers bosa ingramIt's now after the 14th round of a 12-team league's draft, so here are the defenses.  My Yahoo! league doesn't even have this many rounds, so I'll need to move defenses up my rankings at some point.  But for now, here they are.  I had the Steelers D in the first half of the 2017 season and the Chargers D for the second half.  I like both a lot heading into next season, and I actually have the Chargers ahead of Jacksonville for my top spot.  When big players move in free agency and the schedules come out, that's when I'll be adjusting my defensive rankings.  You may see teams like the Lions, Cardinals, or even my Redskins sneak into the top-12 before September.  Who knows?

I could add a few more players to give you a top-200 and a nice number, but I won't.  I'll leave it at 180, and I'll give you a few more players below at each position who I'll consider ranking later this year.  There will likely be many more to add to this list, but this is more than plenty for now:

QBs
Derek Carr
Marcus Mariota 
Blake Bortles
Eli Manning
Andy Dalton
DeShone Kizer
Ryan Tannehill
Case Keenum

RBs
DeAndre Washington
Elijah McGuire
Matt Forte
Matt Breida
Joe Williams
Austin Ekeler
C.J. Prosise
Thomas Rawls
Eddie Lacy
Mike Davis
Charles Sims
LeGarrette Blount 
Rob Kelley
Adrian Peterson
Spencer Ware
Javorius Allen
Kenneth Dixon
T.J. Yeldon
Chris Ivory
James Connor
Mike Gillislee
Jeremy Hill
Paul Perkins
Alfred Morris
Damien Williams
Tion Green

WRs
Tyler Lockett 
Jordan Matthews
Kenny Golladay
John Ross
J.J. Nelson
John Brown
Willie Snead
Cameron Meredith
Dontrelle Inman
Zay Jones
Ted Ginn
Brandon Marshall
DeSean Jackson
Kenny Britt
Allen Hurns
Keelan Cole
Eric Decker
Quincy Enunwa
Travis Benjamin
Mack Hollins

TEs
O.J. Howard
Mark Andrews (R)
Dallas Goedert (R)
Charles Clay
Austin Hooper
Cameron Brate
Jason Witten
David Njoku
Adam Shaheen
Jake Butt


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