Here are the 13 positions: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, RB/WR, DEF, & 5 Bench Spots
You KNOW I don't do kickers! If you have kickers in your league, just take whoever in the last round. But you knew that already...right?
So I have the #4 pick in the draft. The first three picks (in some order) are Saquon, Zeke, and McCaffrey. My ideal draft in a 12 team league here at the end of July would look something like this...
1.04 Alvin Kamara
I get my #1 overall pick at #4, and it's a beautiful start to what could be a perfect draft!
2.08 JuJu Smith-Schuster
Sure, it's not super likely that JuJu falls to late in the second round, but it's certainly possible. His ADP right now is 18, and this is pick 20. Since we're talking about 10-12 team leagues, this is very much in the realm of possibility. I think JuJu will end up leading the league in targets this year, and he could end up as the #1 fantasy WR in 2019. This is a great value here in the second round.
3.04 Aaron Jones
This is my ideal draft. If I can somehow get Kamara and JuJu in the first two rounds, I'm going RB in Round 3. Right now I have Aaron Jones as a top-20 player, so if I can get him at his current Rd 3 ADP, I'm all over it.
4.08 Tyreek Hill
His current ADP is 48, and this is pick 44. Of course now that he's not expected to get a suspension, his ADP will rise. But when I started writing this article, I fully expected him to only get a 4 game suspension, and this was my "reach" in Round 4 because I saw so much value in Tyreek. But if you did this ideal draft early, then Tyreek Hill was a steal in round 4. And his saga might not be over. If he gets traded, his ADP may well stay in the 40s.
5.04 Tyler Lockett
This is right at his ADP, but I have him as a 4th round pick. So this feels like a great value to me. Lockett is the mostly likely receiver to lead the Seahawks in targets, and he has the super efficient Russell Wilson throwing him the pigskin. Sign me up!
6.08 Hunter Henry
You never know when the tight end run will happen in your fantasy draft, but this is likely the round where you'll be looking at an option like Hunter Henry after O.J. Howard and Evan Engram went off the board in the previous round. That's just fine with me. I think Henry could end up as a top-3 TE this year, and I'd be more than happy with him in the 6th round.
7.04 Lamar Miller
This year's super boring pick who can give you RB2 numbers is Lamar Miller. Deshaun Watson and the Texans are going to score plenty of points, and Miller is in a contract year. It's very possible Houston runs the hell out of this guy and gets the most out of him before he's gone. I like him a lot here in Round 7, which is where I expect him to fall in a lot of drafts.
8.08 Latavius Murray
If I luck out and get Kamara with the fourth overall pick, I'm definitely trying to handcuff him with Latavius. Even if I have to reach for him in the 7th, that's what I'll do. But this is my ideal draft, so he fell to me in the 8th (right near his ADP). Even with Kamara healthy, Latavius could be a decent FLEX option. And if Alvin gets hurt? Murray becomes an instant top-10 RB option. I think he's a great value in the middle rounds.
9.04 Carson WentzHere we are at pick 100 in a 12-team draft, and it's finally time for a quarterback. Sure, Wentz might be gone a few picks ahead of this. If that's the case, I'll take Kyler Murray. I think both guys could end up in the top-5 QBs this season. They both have that kind of upside. This is the round to pull the trigger on one of these signal callers.
10.08 Geronimo Allison
Right now his ADP is 117, and this is pick 116. It seems crazy to get Aaron Rodgers's #2 receiver this late in the draft, but that's a possibility.
11.04 Curtis Samuel
I'm taking another WR here, and this is a guy I feel like could break out. Everyone thinks D.J. Moore will be the #1 WR for the Panthers this season, but it could just as easily be Samuel.
12.08 Damien Harris
There are actually a ton of guys I like here in the later rounds. Dak Prescott is a great value if you haven't drafted a QB yet. Lamar Jackson and Mitchell Trubisky are also typically available around this point in the draft. But if I want another RB, I'm looking at Dion Lewis or Damien Harris. And if Sony Michel's knee isn't fully healthy, Harris definitely has more upside here.
13.04 Broncos Defense
It's time for a defense. In my ideal draft, the Chargers fall to me here at the end of the draft. But I don't think that's realistic if I'm waiting til the last round. But hey, Denver's defense is being drafted as the DST9 and their current ADP is 169. So yeah, I can definitely get the Broncos here in the 13th round.
RB Alvin Kamara
RB Aaron Jones
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster
WR Tyreek Hill
RB/WR Tyler Lockett or Lamar Miller
TE Hunter Henry
DEF Denver Broncos
Bench Latavius Murray
Bench Geronimo Allison
Bench Curtis Samuel
Bench Damien Harris
Bench [Tyler Lockett or Lamar Miller]
So in my mind, that was the ideal draft if everything goes right and I have the #4 pick in the draft. But what could be the worst possible draft? It's hard to say, but here's what I think it could look like. Let's just stick with the #4 pick and change up who we take in each round, shall we?
1.04 Melvin Gordon
His ADP right now is 5th overall, but that'll probably drop if it looks like he'll holdout. If he doesn't report to training camp and if his holdout goes into the preseason, his ADP will fall. But for now, this is shaping up to be a potential Le'Veon Bell situation. This would obviously be a terrible first round pick if Gordon somehow misses the entire season like Bell did last year.
2.08 Patrick MahomesSomeone will absolutely reach in the first couple of rounds for Mahomes. Don't be that guy. It's so unlikely that he throws for 50+ TDs again. Even 40 passing TDs could be a stretch if Tyreek misses a few games. Now that Tyreek is expected to not miss games, I still don't think he'll be worth a second round pick, especially with so much value at the position in the later rounds.
3.04 Leonard Fournette
With an ADP of 24, Fournette might feel like a value here in the 3rd round. But with his injury history on a team that could find it difficult to find the endzone, I'd argue that Fournette could struggle to be your RB2.
4.08 Phillip Lindsay
So you're not so sure about your first two RBs, so you take another RB in the fourth round. But in Phillip Lindsay, I'd argue you could have an undrafted second year guy who could easily be replaced by the higher draft pick in Royce Freeman. I expect the new coaching staff in Denver to see what they have in Freeman, and beat writers are already expecting there to be more of a 50/50 split this year. Both RBs could have value, but this could end up being a bit high for Lindsay.
Side Note: Don't pay too much attention to bye weeks, but at this point in the "worst possible draft", you've now selected two guys with Week 10 byes and two guys with Week 12 byes. Not the best idea with your first 4 picks.
5.04 Cooper Kupp
He was great last year until he tore his ACL. But we've seen plenty of guys struggle to get back to what they were before a torn ACL. Don't think that Cooper Kupp will pull an Adrian Peterson and just be ready to go Week 1 and bust out 2000 yards. I think Kupp could end up missing a few weeks to start the season, get eased into action, and potentially even have fewer fantasy points than Josh Reynolds this year. I realize that's a hot take, but I think Kupp might be a little overvalued in Round 5 coming off such a serious injury.
6.08 Jarvis Landry
Since you went RB early and used a high draft pick on Patrick Mahomes, you're now forced to go back to back WR to fill out that lineup. Your best options here in the 6th options are Landry and Alshon. Yuck. I don't particularly like either that much, and I definitely wouldn't feel comfortable with them my WR2 this year. Jarvis didn't have a terrible 2018. He had nearly had 1000 receiving yards and 4 TDs. But Odell Beckham, Jr. wasn't on the team last year. This probably wouldn't be a completely horrible pick in a PPR format, but in a standard league, you're likely looking at a lot of weeks with 35 yards and no scores.
7.04 Darrell Henderson
This guy's ADP feels a little out of hand right now. It's sitting at 80, which is right around Round 7 in a 12 team league. If more information comes out about Todd Gurley and he doesn't play a snap in camp or preseason, then sure, draft Henderson. But even then, I'm not sure Round 7 is appropriate. And for now, I'm assuming Gurley is not done playing football. I'm also not convinced Henderson is definitely the handcuff to Gurley. The Rams signed Malcolm Brown to a 2 year deal this offseason, and he just might be the backup. This feels like a bad pick this early.8.08 Bears Defense
At this point, you're waiting on tight end. But you decide to reach and take the best fantasy defense from 2018. The only problem is, fantasy defenses pretty much never repeat as the #1 fantasy option from year to year. In fact, they often drop out of the top-5 following a great year like the Bears defense had. I'm not saying the Bears won't be a top-5 fantasy defense this season, but I am saying they're a terrible pick in the 8th round.
9.04 Kareem Hunt
It's pick 100 in a 12-team draft, and you haven't taken a tight end yet. But you're going to just wait on the position at this point because the top-10 guys are all gone. You decide to take Kareem Hunt because his ADP is 96 and for some reason you think he's a good value here. No, he's not. He's suspended for 8 games, people! He should be on your "do not draft" list. The Browns have a Week 7 bye, which means Hunt won't be able to play until Week 10 (at the earliest!). That assumes he won't get in some bar fight between now and then and get flat out cut by the Browns. There's no reason to draft this guy and hold onto him this long during all of those bye weeks. You'll want to add/drop all kinds of players looking for upside elsewhere. Don't let Hunt take up a bench spot for at least 9 weeks.
10.08 Emmanuel Sanders
Speaking of not trusting old guys coming off injuries (OK, Sanders is "only" 32)...but I still don't trust him. Steve Smith is the only guy I can remember who recovered well at a late age from an Achilles injury, and I'm just not that confident in Sanders to be ready Week 1. He's not starting training camp on the PUP list, so that's a good sign. He's posted videos running routes and whatnot. Whatever. I won't be drafting him here in Round 10. He doesn't feel like has much upside with Flacco as his QB and coming off such a serious injury. Also, you already drafted Phillip Lindsay! Don't take another Bronco!
11.04 Delanie Walker
There are actually a ton of guys I like here in the later rounds, so it's tough to find a guy I don't like this late. But you decided to wait on tight end, so you should probably draft one, right? But Delanie Walker will be 35 next month, and he's coming off an injury that could cause him to miss Week 1. You're much better off taking a shot on someone else. Especially someone who will definitely be ready for the start of the season.
12.08 DeSean Jackson
Your WRs are terrible, so you decide you should take another one. Except instead of taking a high upside guy like Curtis Samuel or Keke Coutee, you decide to take DeSean Jackson. He's back in Philly and ready to run those go routes, right? I mean, sure, I guess. He'll have like three good games this year. And those game will probably be REALLY good. But will he be in your lineup those weeks? Probably not. He will have had 3 terrible weeks right before that big game, so he'll be on your bench. I'm not drafting DeSean in Round 11, especially if I just took Sanders a couple rounds earlier.
13.04 Greg OlsenYou took Delanie Walker and realized he might not be healthy enough to play football this season. So you decided to take another 34 year old tight end who hasn't had a good season since 2016. Maybe one of these guys will bounce back this year, but I'm not counting on either. I'm looking for tight end options elsewhere.
QB Patrick Mahomes
RB Melvin Gordon
RB Leonard Fournette
WR Cooper Kupp
WR Jarvis Landry
RB/WR Phillip Lindsay
TE Delanie Walker
DEF Bears Defense
Bench Darrell Henderson
Bench Kareem Hunt
Bench Emmanuel Sanders
Bench DeSean Jackson
Bench Greg Olsen
It'll be interesting to see if my Ideal or Worst team will actually be better in 2019. Either way, this was a fun exercise here in late July. And if you look at my grades on FantasyPros for these drafts, it's an A- versus a D+. So I feel like it's pretty accurate, at least for now. I'll keep tabs on these guys and provide a mid to late year update on whether I was right or wrong on these fake drafts.
Cheers,
Bart
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