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| Thanks a lot, Brandon! |
What I do want to recap in this article is how I did in my big preseason article way back in August. I didn't have the time to write a bunch of smaller articles this year, so I wrote a condensed version of a few of them. Let's see how I did on all of those predictions, shall we?
WRs for the Rams
I had Brian Quick in some of my early top-168 rankings, but I even dropped him off toward the end. There just was no clear-cut #1 WR in St. Louis when the season started. Nick Foles began the year at QB, but Case Keenum finished at the position. Tavon Austin actually ended up being a top-20 fantasy WR, but no one was ranking him before Week 1. And let's face it, three weeks into the season he had 42 receiving yards and a rushing TD. Not many people were starting him when he went off in Week 4, and he was up and down all year since that big game. I stand by not drafting a Rams WR, and I doubt I will in 2016 either.
Jay Ajayi
He wasn't even projected to be Miami's #2 RB behind Lamar Miller, but a lot of experts had him in their top-100. Ajayi had been dealing with a hamstring injury in camp and was listed 4th on the first release of the Dolphin's depth chart, so I wasn't ranking him. He ended up not playing a snap until Week 9, and he had one double digit performance (when he scored a TD against the Chargers in Week 15). He'll likely be in my top-168 for 2016, but he had virtually no value this season.
Any Patriot RB not named LeGarrette Blount
Here are some names that I said wouldn't crack my preseason top-168: James White, Jonas Gray, Brandon Bolden, and Travaris Cadet. At the time, I said who knows which one of the four could break through? Turns out the answer was "none of them" because it was Dion Lewis until he got injured in Week 9 against my Redskins. As for Blount, he was decent Weeks 3-10, but he had a couple of stinkers mixed in there and did very little Weeks 11-14 before being lost to a season-ending injury himself. Either way, unless you are some sort of sorcerer and knew Dion Lewis would be a running back to own for a few weeks this year, you shouldn't have drafted a Patriot RB other than Blount.
Jordan Cameron
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| I hope you didn't waste a pick on Cameron this year. |
There were a lot of question marks at the tight end position entering the 2015 fantasy season, and it started right at the top. Would Gronk be without Brady for 4 games? As it turned out, no. And also as it turned out, he was the #1 fantasy TE again this year. Would Jimmy Graham and Julius Thomas still catch TDs in their new digs? Graham only caught 2 TDs through 3 weeks and then not another one the rest of the season, which got cut short for him due to injury in Week 12. As for Julius Thomas, sort of...but not until his 4-game scoring streak Weeks 11-14. The bottom line is, neither was a top-10 fantasy TE in 2015.
Honestly, after Gronk, I said the TE position got really iffy when it came to fantasy drafts. I was hoping to draft a TE late, and that meant I almost certainly wouldn't end up with Cameron, who was in the top-100 for most experts (and definitely not for me). I just thought that was too high for a guy in his 5th NFL season who had ONE good year and hadn't played a full 16-game season (until this year actually). But despite finally playing in all 16 games, Jordan only managed 386 yards and 3 TDs (one of which was in Week 17). Horrible.
Honestly, after Gronk, I said the TE position got really iffy when it came to fantasy drafts. I was hoping to draft a TE late, and that meant I almost certainly wouldn't end up with Cameron, who was in the top-100 for most experts (and definitely not for me). I just thought that was too high for a guy in his 5th NFL season who had ONE good year and hadn't played a full 16-game season (until this year actually). But despite finally playing in all 16 games, Jordan only managed 386 yards and 3 TDs (one of which was in Week 17). Horrible.
Jets D
Every expert was ranking this squad well into their top-10 defenses, but I couldn't figure out why. They were a bottom-5 fantasy D in 2014 and a bottom-10 team the year before that. They did a good job in the offseason through the draft and free agency, but I didn't see that combined with Todd Bowles completely turning them into a dominant fantasy defense like they were years ago. As it turned out, they finished outside of the top-12 fantasy defenses in 2015.
If you were able to draft and somehow keep Gostkowski through his Week 4 bye, then good for you because he was once again the #1 fantasy kicker. I wasn't arguing that point, as I said I was sure he'd be a top-5 fantasy kicker this year. I just didn't want to draft a guy who I might waive early on, and that includes any and every kicker. Maybe next year I'll change my mind because in the second week of my ESPN fantasy championship, I picked up Jacksonville's kicker (who got ONE point) and waived Matt Prater (who could have won it for me in Week 16).
Enough talk about kickers though. How about some of the guys I said were ready for the next level? In previous years, I gave you a full offensive team of players primed to make that jump from fantasy irrelevance straight to a top-10 or top-20 at their position (depending on where they were in the previous season). For 2015, I gave you a shortened list of those dudes. As a reminder, I wasn't talking about players who were already top-10 or top-15 in the preseason rankings. Everyone expected C.J. Anderson and Travis Kelce to be one of the best at their positions this season (turns out neither happened). The players below were a little more off the radar at the time of the article. Now? Not so much...
QB: Derek Carr
Carr threw for over 3000 yards and 20 TDs in his rookie year, and he finished as a top-20 fantasy QB. He also did all of that with WRs like James Jones, Andre Holmes, and Denarius Moore. Fast forward to 2015 and Carr was now throwing to Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper. With better weapons and a year under his belt, I said Derek Carr would finish as a top-15 fantasy QB. He finished as the 13th-best fantasy QB, so I nailed this one.
RB: Charles Sims
I wasn't sold on Lovie Smith committing to Doug Martin, but The Muscle Hamster actually had a great season. With respect to Sims, I did say that "if anything, the 2nd-year RB out of West Virginia should be in there on third downs and catch a lot of passes out of the backfield. I think he'll have really good value in PPR leagues." With 51 catches for 561 yards and 4 receiving TDs, I was spot on there. Add to those totals over 500 rushing yards, and Sims quietly finished in the top-25 fantasy RBs in 2015!
WR: Martavis Bryant
Big Ben was talking up Markus Wheaton in the preseason, but we heard that in 2014 too. I held strong and had Martavis ranked higher than most of the experts. This was a guy who could do just as much as the #2 option as other guys could do as #1s (ahem, Jordan Matthews...until he decided to finally produce consistently Weeks 15-17, when you likely weren't playing him anyway). As for Bryant, he totaled over 600 yards and 9 TDs in only 11 games his rookie year, and I thought he'd go for 800 yards and double-digit TDs this season. He ended up missing the first FIVE games of 2015, so he managed just 765 yards and 6 TDs. He finished just outside of the top-25 at his position, but he was top-15 based on his fantasy points/game average. No one will be sleeping on him in 2016.
TE: Tyler Eifert
The obvious preseason pick at this position was Travis Kelce, but everyone had him ranked as a top-5 TE. But somehow Tyler Eifert was still flying relatively under the radar leading up to fantasy drafts, even after Jermaine Gresham left Cincy for Arizona. I predicted 700 yards and 7 TDs from Eifert this season, which would easily have put him in the top-10 fantasy TEs. Well he didn't hit that yardage total, mostly because he missed 3 games during Weeks 13-16 due to injury. But he did catch 13 TDs this season (most among TEs) and still finished as the #6 TE ( and #3 based on fantasy points/game average).
So far, so good...right? Well, this next part is one of my favorite exercises, but it's definitely not intended to be super accurate. I started doing this article in 2014 and called it "Who is this year's Zac Stacy?" Basically I just went through and did a quick Q&A to try to predict some long shots...I repeat: LONG SHOTS. Let's see who made this list in 2015, and let's see what I actually got right.
Q: Who is this year's Zac Stacy (2013) or Tre Mason (2014)?
[Description: A rookie (later-round draft pick) who is in a clouded backfield situation, UNDRAFTED in virtually all fantasy leagues, but could get a shot sooner rather than later to be the "bellcow" running back.]
My answer in August: David Cobb
I took a stab at the Titan backfield, which was about as muddled as any in the NFL. Bishop Sankey was the first RB selected in the 2014 draft, but he didn't do much in his rookie campaign. Then Tennessee went and drafted Cobb this year, which told me they had little faith in Sankey. As it turned out, Cobb never really got a chance this season and it was Antonio Andrews who was the feature back for the Titans most of the year. It still doesn't make sense to me how Cobb never really got an opportunity, seeing as how Tennessee ended up as the worst team in the NFL. But he actually had a decent game in Week 17 when finally given a chance, and maybe I was just a year off on him. We'll see in 2016.
Actual Answer: David Johnson
He had double-digit fantasy points in 4 of his first 5 games. Then he cooled off for a bit while Chris Johnson got most of the playing time for Arizona. But when CJOK went down (and Andre Ellington too), the rookie went off down the stretch. He had double-digit fantasy points in every game Weeks 13-16 and actually finished as a top-10 fantasy RB this year!
Q: Who is this year's Knowshon Moreno (2013) or Mark Ingram (2014)?
[Description: Former early round NFL draft pick, career plagued by injuries, but finally finds himself in a nice spot to be a feature running back.]
My answer in August (which is also the actual answer!): Darren McFadden
Did I think this would actually happen? No, I didn't. But he sure fit the description, and in the end he was the closest thing to it. I said if McFadden could stay healthy, the former 4th overall pick in the 2008 draft could rejuvenate his career in Big D. He ended up as a top-15 fantasy RB overall and top-10 since taking over the starting job in Week 7.
Q: Who is this year's Danny Woodhead (2013) or Darren Sproles (2014)?
[Description: Shifty veteran who sneakily finishes in the top-20 overall fantasy RBs.]
My answer in August : Reggie Bush
I said the answer actually would probably be Danny Woodhead again, but I wanted to give you another guy who fit the description in 2015. Reggie did virtually nothing for the 49ers before suffering a season-ending injury in Week 8. This was no where near the right call.
Actual Answer: Danny Woodhead
He finished as a top-12 fantasy RB this year. Should have stuck with the little guy as my prediction...
Q: Who is this year's Keenan Allen (2013) or Odell Beckham, Jr. (2014)?
[Description: Rookie WR who finds himself on a team with a solid QB in need of a #1 WR, so he becomes that guy. Must be late-round fantasy pick or even undrafted in most leagues.]
My answer in August: DeVante Parker (Actual Answer: NONE)
I said that DeVante could find himself becoming Tannehill's #1 target once he got healthy and onto the field. I wasn't totally wrong there, as he pretty much was the top WR for the Dolphins since he returned from injury in Week 12. The thing is, there was no Keenan Allen or OBJ this season, but Parker started to fit the description down the stretch. In the final 6 games of the season, he totaled 445 yards and 3 TDs. Who knows what he'll do with a full season, but time will tell.
That's it for my season recap. I hope everyone had another fun (if not monetarily beneficial) fantasy season. I'll post my Way-Too-Early 2016 rankings in the next week or two, so keep an eye out for that!
Cheers,
Bart
Enough talk about kickers though. How about some of the guys I said were ready for the next level? In previous years, I gave you a full offensive team of players primed to make that jump from fantasy irrelevance straight to a top-10 or top-20 at their position (depending on where they were in the previous season). For 2015, I gave you a shortened list of those dudes. As a reminder, I wasn't talking about players who were already top-10 or top-15 in the preseason rankings. Everyone expected C.J. Anderson and Travis Kelce to be one of the best at their positions this season (turns out neither happened). The players below were a little more off the radar at the time of the article. Now? Not so much...
Carr threw for over 3000 yards and 20 TDs in his rookie year, and he finished as a top-20 fantasy QB. He also did all of that with WRs like James Jones, Andre Holmes, and Denarius Moore. Fast forward to 2015 and Carr was now throwing to Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper. With better weapons and a year under his belt, I said Derek Carr would finish as a top-15 fantasy QB. He finished as the 13th-best fantasy QB, so I nailed this one.
RB: Charles Sims
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| Next level? I'd say a top-25 fantasy RB in his 2nd NFL season isn't bad. |
WR: Martavis Bryant
Big Ben was talking up Markus Wheaton in the preseason, but we heard that in 2014 too. I held strong and had Martavis ranked higher than most of the experts. This was a guy who could do just as much as the #2 option as other guys could do as #1s (ahem, Jordan Matthews...until he decided to finally produce consistently Weeks 15-17, when you likely weren't playing him anyway). As for Bryant, he totaled over 600 yards and 9 TDs in only 11 games his rookie year, and I thought he'd go for 800 yards and double-digit TDs this season. He ended up missing the first FIVE games of 2015, so he managed just 765 yards and 6 TDs. He finished just outside of the top-25 at his position, but he was top-15 based on his fantasy points/game average. No one will be sleeping on him in 2016.
TE: Tyler Eifert
The obvious preseason pick at this position was Travis Kelce, but everyone had him ranked as a top-5 TE. But somehow Tyler Eifert was still flying relatively under the radar leading up to fantasy drafts, even after Jermaine Gresham left Cincy for Arizona. I predicted 700 yards and 7 TDs from Eifert this season, which would easily have put him in the top-10 fantasy TEs. Well he didn't hit that yardage total, mostly because he missed 3 games during Weeks 13-16 due to injury. But he did catch 13 TDs this season (most among TEs) and still finished as the #6 TE ( and #3 based on fantasy points/game average).
So far, so good...right? Well, this next part is one of my favorite exercises, but it's definitely not intended to be super accurate. I started doing this article in 2014 and called it "Who is this year's Zac Stacy?" Basically I just went through and did a quick Q&A to try to predict some long shots...I repeat: LONG SHOTS. Let's see who made this list in 2015, and let's see what I actually got right.
Q: Who is this year's Zac Stacy (2013) or Tre Mason (2014)?
[Description: A rookie (later-round draft pick) who is in a clouded backfield situation, UNDRAFTED in virtually all fantasy leagues, but could get a shot sooner rather than later to be the "bellcow" running back.]
My answer in August: David Cobb
I took a stab at the Titan backfield, which was about as muddled as any in the NFL. Bishop Sankey was the first RB selected in the 2014 draft, but he didn't do much in his rookie campaign. Then Tennessee went and drafted Cobb this year, which told me they had little faith in Sankey. As it turned out, Cobb never really got a chance this season and it was Antonio Andrews who was the feature back for the Titans most of the year. It still doesn't make sense to me how Cobb never really got an opportunity, seeing as how Tennessee ended up as the worst team in the NFL. But he actually had a decent game in Week 17 when finally given a chance, and maybe I was just a year off on him. We'll see in 2016.
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| Who saw this coming?!? |
He had double-digit fantasy points in 4 of his first 5 games. Then he cooled off for a bit while Chris Johnson got most of the playing time for Arizona. But when CJOK went down (and Andre Ellington too), the rookie went off down the stretch. He had double-digit fantasy points in every game Weeks 13-16 and actually finished as a top-10 fantasy RB this year!
Q: Who is this year's Knowshon Moreno (2013) or Mark Ingram (2014)?
[Description: Former early round NFL draft pick, career plagued by injuries, but finally finds himself in a nice spot to be a feature running back.]
My answer in August (which is also the actual answer!): Darren McFadden
Did I think this would actually happen? No, I didn't. But he sure fit the description, and in the end he was the closest thing to it. I said if McFadden could stay healthy, the former 4th overall pick in the 2008 draft could rejuvenate his career in Big D. He ended up as a top-15 fantasy RB overall and top-10 since taking over the starting job in Week 7.
Q: Who is this year's Danny Woodhead (2013) or Darren Sproles (2014)?
[Description: Shifty veteran who sneakily finishes in the top-20 overall fantasy RBs.]
My answer in August : Reggie Bush
I said the answer actually would probably be Danny Woodhead again, but I wanted to give you another guy who fit the description in 2015. Reggie did virtually nothing for the 49ers before suffering a season-ending injury in Week 8. This was no where near the right call.
Actual Answer: Danny Woodhead
He finished as a top-12 fantasy RB this year. Should have stuck with the little guy as my prediction...
[Description: Rookie WR who finds himself on a team with a solid QB in need of a #1 WR, so he becomes that guy. Must be late-round fantasy pick or even undrafted in most leagues.]
My answer in August: DeVante Parker (Actual Answer: NONE)
I said that DeVante could find himself becoming Tannehill's #1 target once he got healthy and onto the field. I wasn't totally wrong there, as he pretty much was the top WR for the Dolphins since he returned from injury in Week 12. The thing is, there was no Keenan Allen or OBJ this season, but Parker started to fit the description down the stretch. In the final 6 games of the season, he totaled 445 yards and 3 TDs. Who knows what he'll do with a full season, but time will tell.
That's it for my season recap. I hope everyone had another fun (if not monetarily beneficial) fantasy season. I'll post my Way-Too-Early 2016 rankings in the next week or two, so keep an eye out for that!
Cheers,
Bart
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