QBs
1.Aaron Rodgers
2.Andrew Luck
3.Peyton Manning
4.Philip Rivers
5.Jay Cutler
6.Russell Wilson
7.Colin Kaepernick
8.Cam Newton
9.Drew Brees
10.Tom Brady
11.Joe Flacco
12.Matthew Stafford
13.Ben Roethlisberger
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14.Tony Romo
15.Matt Ryan
16.Carson Palmer
17.Kirk Cousins
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18.Alex Smith
19.Eli Manning
20.Andy Dalton
21.Brian Hoyer
22.Ryan Tannehill
23.Derek Carr
24.Kyle Orton
25.Blake Bortles
Several of the usual suspects were in the top-10 in Week 6 including Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, and Aaron Rodgers. And a couple of 2013's usual suspects found their way into the top-3, and it was the two guys I talked about last week. I was high on Tom Brady (ESPN #18, ME #14), pointing out that he had owned the Bills in his career, and he continued to do so throwing for 4 TDs in Buffalo. But I was down on Cam Newton (ESPN #19, ME #24) who just hadn't been let loose in the running game this year....that is, until last week. I picked the wrong time to talk trash about Cam because his rushing attempts and yards were more than his four previous games COMBINED. I guess he's either getting healthier or the Panther coaching staff has just decided to let him do his thing. Either way, both former fantasy QB studs are back on the radar and actually in my top-10 this week.
As for Joe Flacco and his 5 TDs (which took him all of about 16 minutes in that game...faster than anyone else ever), I think he's just a blip on the radar screen. I do like him in a home matchup this week against the Falcons, but I don't expect big things from him in Weeks 8-10 (@CIN, @PIT, TEN). He does have some plus matchups after the Week 11 bye, but I still think he'll be a backup fantasy QB for the rest of 2014. You'll notice I didn't rank a Tennessee QB this week, even though they have an amazing matchup in Washington. The problem is, I don't really know who the starter will be. Locker hasn't played a full, productive game since Week 1 really, and Clipboard Jesus hasn't been very good as his replacement. It's a great matchup against a bad secondary, but I just can't bring myself to rank either this week.
 I'm high on: Ben Roethlisberger (ESPN #17, ME #13)
Speaking of hard to trust, it might be pretty tough for a Roethlisberger owner to start him this week after back-to-back poor fantasy performances in Jacksonville and Cleveland. But a closer look at Pittsburgh's schedule shows that they've only had two home games and four on the road to start the season. In each of those home games though, Big Ben has thrown for over 300 yards, and he had 3 TD passes against the Bucs in Week 4. Meanwhile, Houston's pass defense is ranked 28th in the NFL, and in the last two weeks Andrew Luck and Tony Romo really had their way with them. In fact, the Texans haven't held an opposing QB to fewer than 2 TD passes since Week 2 when they played Oakland. Yes, even E.J. Manuel had a pair of TD passes against this defense! I think Roethlisberger will shine on Monday Night Football, and he'll throw for over 300 yards and a couple of touchdowns.
I'm down on: Carson Palmer (ESPN #12, ME #16)
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Palmer's arm strength still may not be at 100%, but he did have a solid first game back against the Redskins last week. Of course, it was the Redskins. I'm not saying the Raiders have a great defense, but they're nearly top-10 against the pass. Some of that could be due to playing against QBs like Ryan Fitzpatrick and Geno Smith early on, but they also held Tom Brady to very pedestrian numbers in their Week 3 loss in Foxboro. In general, Oakland looked improved last week against the Chargers. Sure, they lost. Sure, Philip Rivers torched them (but he's been torching everyone through 6 games). Maybe this is a gut call more than anything, but I think Palmer is a risky start as he plays his first road game of the 2014 season.
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RBs |
1.DeMarco Murray
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2.Matt Forte
3.Arian Foster
4.Marshawn Lynch
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5.Jamaal Charles
6.Ben Tate
7.Giovani Bernard
8.Le'Veon Bell
9.Andre Ellington
10.Lamar Miller
11.Branden Oliver
12.Justin Forsett
13.Eddie Lacy
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14.Alfred Morris
15.Fred Jackson
16.Joique Bell
17.Shane Vereen
18.Andre Williams
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19.Ahmad Bradshaw
20.Frank Gore
21.Ronnie Hillman
22.Chris Ivory
23.Reggie Bush
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24.CJ Spiller
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25.Darren McFadden
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26.Trent Richardson
27.Jonathan Stewart
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28.Pierre Thomas
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29.Bishop Sankey
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30.Mark Ingram
31.Jeremy Hill
32.Bernard Pierce
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33.Jerick McKinnon
34.Steven Jackson
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35.Storm Johnson
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36.Zac Stacy
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37.Isaiah Crowell
38.James Starks
39.Antone Smith
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40.Matt Asiata
41.Brandon Bolden
42.Khiry Robinson
43.Chris Johnson
44.Roy Helu
45.LeGarrette Blount
46.Carlos Hyde
47.Knile Davis
48.Juwan Thompson
49.Peyton Hillis
50.Benny Cuningham
I may have been split on the QBs I was high/down on in Week 6, but I finally broke my streak and hit on my RBs. I liked Shady and Ben Tate more than the experts, as I had both as top-10 plays (and the experts didn't). Well, both did end up as top-10 fantasy RBs in Week 6, and the ESPN experts all looked silly with a top-10 consensus ranking of guys like Andre Williams instead. The guy I was down on was Matt Asiata, who has finally been overtaken by Jerrick McKinnon. It's time to swap these two in the rankings, and Asiata may even become a fantasy afterthought if the Vikings are smart and give the rookie most of the work moving forward. I don't know what they have to lose, but this week's workload should be very telling of this situation for the rest of the season.
I'm high on: Darren McFadden (ESPN #34, ME #25)
I know, right? I'm surprised too. Believe me, I don't want to be high on McFadden this week. I don't want to be high on Oakland at all, but this is now the second time I've talked up the Raiders in some capacity. I guess I think they'll do OK against Arizona and maybe even get their first win in nearly a year. As for McFadden, sure it's a tough matchup against the Cardinals. But he's the clear lead back in this offense, as he out-touched MJD 15-4 and 16-5 in their last two games. It could be hard to run against this defense, but Tony Sparano will try. And if that doesn't work, I think they'll still try to get Run DMC the ball in the passing game. He did have 4 targets in Week 6, and while Arizona boasts a great run defense, they're dead last in pass defense. I like for McFadden to continue to get 15-20 touches, and I think he'll make enough happen with them this week to crack the top-25.
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| I'm not ready to insert Bolden into my lineup just yet... |
I'm down on: Brandon Bolden (ESPN #32, ME #41)
Really? We're just ready to assume Belichick inserts Bolden into Ridley's role, making him an instant Flex consideration...against a top-10 run defense? I'm being a little more conservative with my prediction this week, as I think it's possible James White gets more touches than Bolden. I could be totally wrong here, but I wouldn't risk getting off to a bad start on a Thursday night with such a risky start.
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WRs
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1.Demaryius Thomas
2.Jordy Nelson
3.Antonio Brown
4.Brandon Marshall
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5.Julio Jones
6.Alshon Jeffery
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7.Randall Cobb
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8.Dez Bryant
9.T.Y. Hilton
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10.Steve Smith, Sr.
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11.Emmanuel Sanders
12.Mike Wallace
13.Mohamed Sanu
14.Golden Tate
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15.Kelvin Benjamin
16.Julian Edelman
17.DeSean Jackson
18.Andre Johnson
19.Michael Floyd
20.Rueben Randle
21.Reggie Wayne
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22.Torrey Smith
23.Pierre Garcon
24.Roddy White
25.Terrance Williams
26.Andre Holmes
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27.Larry Fitzgerald
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28.Sammy Watkins
29.Brandin Cooks
31.Keenan Allen
34.Michael Crabtree
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36.James Jones
37.Cecil Shorts III
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38.Odell Beckham, Jr.
39.Brian Quick
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40.Kendall Wright
41.Malcom Floyd
42.Davante Adams
43.Justin Hunter
44.Brandon LaFell
45.Anquan Boldin
46.Eddie Royal
47.Dwayne Bowe
48.Wes Welker
49.Andrew Hawkins
50.Cordarrelle Patterson
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I had been ranking T.Y. Hilton higher than the ESPN experts for about 3 weeks running, but I guess I didn't have him high enough. He blew up last Thursday in Houston and was easily the #1 fantasy WR in Week 6. The guy I was really down on, Pierre Garcon (ESPN #15, ME #24), did manage to find the endzone against the Cardinals, but he only had 4 catches for 31 yards and finished well outside of the top-25. DeSean Jackson continues to get better fantasy production with Kirk Cousins, and now Jordan Reed is back in that offense. Like I said last week, I think Garcon is becoming a matchup-based decision and not an every week start. I wasn't so good with my other pick though, as I was high on Brian Quick, who really struggled Monday night against the 49ers. I've lowered him back down a bit after that performance and considering it doesn't get easier for him this week as the Seahawks come to town.
I'm high on: Davante Adams (ESPN #56, ME #42)
Three of the ESPN experts didn't even rank Adams in their top-50 WRs this week, but one of them ranked him 50th. Somehow that gets him a consensus #56 ranking, but whatever. I want to talk about him here because I think he should strongly be considered for a WR3 position this week. I mean, Aaron Rodgers is viewed as a unanimous top-3 fantasy QB most of the time (including this week), so why are people not realizing what's going on with him and Adams? Early last week, Rodgers was praising the rookie's route running and saying the more he watched film the more he saw No. 17 open. So what happened against the Dolphins in Week 6? Adams saw a season-high 6 targets which he turned into 77 yards. Jarrett Boykin will likely still be sidelined with a groin injury, but even when he returns I think Adams maintains the #3 WR position on this squad (as I predicted in the preseason...look it up!). This could be the last week you're able to scoop up Davante off the waiver wire, and I think he has extremely high upside for the rest of this season (and perhaps beyond for keeper leagues like mine).
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| If Adams had scored on this play late in the 4th quarter, I bet he wouldn't be ranked so low by the ESPN experts... |
I'm down on: DeAndre Hopkins (ESPN #24, ME #30)
This week was hard to rank WRs after the top-20. Maybe it's the matchups or just that time of year that makes it tough to figure out who is who, but you'll notice ESPN's rankings are all over the place between the experts too. For instance, Torrey Smith is ranked anywhere from 16th to 39th this week by their 4 experts. As for Hopkins though, they all have him in the mid-20s. With Ryan Fitzpatrick barely averaging 200 passing yards per game this season, I'm just having a hard time trusting these Houston WRs. And with Pittsburgh quietly giving up the 7th-fewest fantasy points to receivers this year, I have Hopkins a bit lower than the experts this week.
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TEs
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1.Rob Gronkowski
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2.Julius Thomas
3.Greg Olsen
4.Jordan Cameron
5.Antonio Gates
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6.Martellus Bennett
7.Travis Kelce
8.Jordan Reed
9.Delanie Walker
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10.Larry Donnell
11.Dwayne Allen
12.Jason Witten
13.Jared Cook
14.Josh Hill
15.Vernon Davis
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Last week my list actually had a couple of guys quite different from the ESPN experts, as they ranked Jason Witten in their top-10 and Jordan Cameron out of it. While Witten finally found the endzone for the first time this season, he only had 24 receiving yards and finished outside of the top-10. Meanwhile, Jordan Cameron did what I said he'd do: remind fantasy owners why they used a high pick on him this year. He scored his first TD of the year too, but he also went for over 100 yards against the Steelers and finished second among TEs (just behind Julius Thomas, who added 2 more TDs bringing his season total to NINE!!!).
 This week my rankings are pretty similar to the ESPN experts, but I will point out one guy I really like, and that's Josh Hill. Only two of the experts even ranked Hill in their top-25s this week, and even then it was well below where I have him. With Jimmy Graham sidelined for a couple more weeks, Brees will definitely be looking for a tight end to run some seam routes and be a red zone target. I don't think that tight end is Ben Watson, as the veteran is more of a run blocker. Josh Hill is averaging 7 fantasy points in his last 3 games, and he's the more athletic guy who will try to do his best impression of Jimmy Graham and also has real top-10 upside over the next week or two. |
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DEF
1.Seahawks
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2.Patriots
3.Bills
4.Cardinals
5.Browns
6.Lions
7.Ravens
8.Packers
9.Broncos
10.Bears
11.Texans
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12.Chargers
13.Cowboys
14.Colts
15.Titans
None of the ESPN experts had Indy ranked higher than 14th against the Texans last Thursday night, and on average they were their #17 projected fantasy defense. So I decided to talk them up because I had them ranked 12th. I predicted a 34-13 victory for the Colts, and I was feeling pretty good about that guess after the first quarter when it was 24-0 Colts. And while the Texans did make a game of it, Indy still recorded 5 sacks and forced a couple of fumbles on their way to finishing as exactly the 12th ranked fantasy defense in Week 6.
As for the team I was down on, I wasn't even considering the Rams on Monday night against the 49ers. They failed to record a sack to keep their yearly total at ONE, and they finished outside of the top-20 as they let go of an early lead and the Niners dominated the second half. I only rank 15 defenses each week, but I said if I did rank the Rams (like the ESPN experts, who ranked them 14th), I said they'd probably be around 23rd or 24th. Again, pretty close. And the Rams fantasy D would have done even worse if San Fran had converted a couple of late 4th downs and scored some more points, but it didn't matter for the outcome of the game and the Rams were still a poor choice as a fantasy defense last week. I won't be considering them any time soon, and I won't be ranking the Panthers either. You need to reconsider your preseason expectations. It's Week 7, people!!!
I'm high on: Packers (ESPN #14, ME #8)
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| This Packer secondary is no....joke. Get it? Get it?!?!? |
They haven't had the toughest schedule so far this season, but Green Bay has been a top-10 fantasy defense. And if you only look at the last 4 weeks, they're top-5. They've been making the plays in the secondary too, as they have the second-most interceptions in the league with 9. And while Cam Newton has been pretty good in his young career at not throwing too many picks, he does have one in each of his last two games. Also, Kelvin Benjamin actually suffered a concussion against the Bengals last week and so far hasn't been cleared to practice this week. If he can't go, Cam will be without his biggest playmaker and he can't throw every ball to Greg Olsen. And if that happens, I'd even move the Packers up two or three more spots in my rankings.
I'm down on: 49ers (ESPN #13, ME not ranked)
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It looks like ESPN is going back to the well that is Mile High Stadium. You know, where the Broncos have a hard time scoring. Wait, that's not right. Why oh why do they continue to rank these defenses so highly against Peyton Manning? Get with it, guys! Denver is averaging 32 points per game at home this season, and I think they'll keep it rolling (even against the Niners). I realize that San Fran has a good looking pass defense, but Peyton Manning doesn't care about that. He'll get rid of the ball quickly, have a quiet environment in which he can operate, and he'll put plenty of points on the board. There are a lot of other matchups I'd rather try over this one.
That's it for Week 7. Good luck everyone (except you, Bird).
Cheers,
Bart
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