Don't Swallow the (Salary) Cap, 2015 Edition

In my "Way Too Early" rankings article in February, I gave you some key dates to keep an eye on in the coming months.  The first of these was March 10th (the start of free agency).

This is what I said then:

Both of these guys will be in different uniforms in 2015...

"While I don't think DeMarco Murray and Adrian Peterson will end up with anyone other than the Cowboys and Vikings (respectively), it could happen.  And there are other RBs like Mark Ingram and CJ Spiller who I think WILL be elsewhere....It sure seems like Randall Cobb or Jeremy Maclin could end up donning different uniforms in 2015.  And just think what that would do for the value of Davante Adams/Jordan Mathews..."

After a mere 48 hours into the free agency period, teams were making deals left and right.  It was unlike any start to free agency I could remember.  Adrian Peterson may still end up in Minnesota, but he might not.  As for DeMarco Murray, he landed in Philly within like 24 hours of the Eagles signing Ryan Mathews I believe.  And while Randall Cobb re-signed with the Packers, Jeremy Maclin is heading home to Missouri to play for the Chiefs.  Things have settled down a bit now, but there are still a few players out there who will likely land with new squads.  The draft is still over a month away (April 30th), but teams will continue to put some pieces together between now and then.

Anyway, let's talk about the guys who are moving around in free agency and what that could mean for their fantasy value.  Not only that, but with someone leaving a team or joining a new one, we need to consider the impact to other players on both of those teams.  Last year in this article, I gave you names like Golden Tate (STOCK UP with his move to Detroit) and Eric Decker (STOCK DOWN leaving Peyton Manning for the Jets).  This isn't a 100% complete list of free agent signings, but it should give you a pretty complete list of fantasy-relevant guys in 2015.  And it doesn't include defenses, but the Patriots lost some key pieces and the Dolphins gained some big ones (literally, as in the case of Suh).

First, let me list the guys who I feel remain relatively unchanged (whether they switched teams or not).

UNCHANGED (with new teams) DeMarco Murray, LeSean McCoy, Brandon Marshall, Mike Wallace, Jordan Cameron, Charles Clay, Trent Richardson, DeAngelo Williams, Roy Helu, Bernard Pierce, Percy Harvin, Cecil Shorts, Kenny Stills, Dwayne Bowe, Stevie Johnson, Harry Douglas, Brian Hartline, Eddie Royal, Brian Hoyer

UNCHANGED (stayed with current teams) Randall Cobb, Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, Justin Forsett, Greg Olsen, Kenny Britt, Marques Colston, Mark Sanchez

Sure, you could argue that the value of McCoy or Marshall is slightly down.  But I'd only consider lowering either maybe a spot or two at their positions.  That's negligible to me.  And before you trash the Jets, just remember that Marshall has produced wherever he has played.  As for Murray, he was already the best RB in the league in 2014.  Maybe he'll be even better in that offense.  Maybe Chip Kelly will actually spread the ball around a little more.  There is just too much unknown there for now.  But again, I'm not moving DeMarco around drastically in my rankings either.

STOCK UP Darren McFadden to Dallas
With that being said, let's start with someone who will try to fill some pretty big shoes in Dallas with DeMarco Murray gone.  I'm not sure McFadden can still fill them, but he'll have a shot and will be behind one of the best offensive lines in the league if he can make the squad and stay healthy.  Either way, I think his stock is definitely up from being behind Latavius Murray on the depth chart in Oakland to having a legitimate opportunity to win the starting role for the Cowboys.  Of course we'll see what happens next month, as I have a feeling Dallas might try to make a splash in the draft with someone like Melvin Gordon...


STOCK DOWN Jimmy Graham to Seattle and Julius Thomas to Jacksonville
There's no denying what Russell Wilson and the Seahawks have done in the win column, but they haven't exactly been doing it with their aerial attack.  Graham goes from being the #1 target in a high octane Drew Brees offense to probably the #3 or 4 option in a run-first scheme.  I'm sure he'll still get some redzone touchdowns, but I don't expect elite numbers from him with the move.  As for Julius Thomas, he's leaving an elite QB/offense for a ton of cash and to play with 2nd-year QB Blake Bortles in one of the league's most stagnant offenses.  I think he'll fade out of the top-10 fantasy TEs in 2015.

STOCK UP Sam Bradford to Philadelphia
I'm not sure how I feel about Nick Foles in St. Louis (stock up/stock down), but I DO know how I feel about Bradford now in Philly.  No one runs more offensive plays than the Eagles, and they've ranked near the top in most offensive categories since Chip Kelly's arrival.  I'd like to see Philly add another WR either in the draft or free agency, but I don't think it matters much in that scheme.  Bradford definitely gets a fantasy upgrade with the move to the city of brotherly love.

STOCK DOWN Ryan Mathews to Philadelphia
Let's stay in Philly and talk about Ryan Mathews.  This was looking more like "STOCK UP" until the Eagles signed DeMarco, what with the whole high-powered offense and all.  And while I think Mathews still has some value because of that offense, let's be real here.  Mathews was "the guy" in San Diego.  Now he's more of a complementary piece.  If you draft DeMarco Murray, you're probably going to want to also draft Mathews if the price tag isn't too high.  I can't think of a better handcuff in the league right now, and he's actually a little more than that if both are healthy.  As for Sproles, I doubt he'll be drafted in many leagues now.  There aren't THAT many touches to go around, even in Philly.  As for the RB situation that remains in San Diego?  If it stays more or less as it is now, it's tough to rank their RBs...but I'd probably go with the following: Donald Brown, Danny Woodhead, Branden Oliver.  If the Chargers decide to get rid of Donald Brown though, I could easily see Branden Oliver being the #1 fantasy running back in San Diego.

STOCK UP Owen Daniels to Denver
I think I read that Daniels hasn't played a snap in the NFL that wasn't under Gary Kubiak in some capacity.  Now he's following him from Baltimore to Denver, and he'll have Peyton Manning throwing to him for at least 2015.  I don't see Owen putting up numbers like Orange Julius, but I think he could still have a career year.  If nothing else, he's likely to set a career high in TDs (his current best was 6 in 2012).  I think a healthy Daniels in Denver could produce 700+ receiving yards and 8 TDs.

STOCK DOWN Torrey Smith to San Francisco
Speaking of former Ravens, there seem to be a lot of them again this offseason (and my wife is NOT happy).  Torrey is a guy I like a lot both on and off the field, but I think his fantasy stock goes down with the move out west.  He had a bit of a down year in 2014, but his touchdown total actually ended up being a career high (11).  He'll be reunited with Boldin, but I'm guessing Crabtree will end up elsewhere.  Either way, I think he'll struggle a bit while being in a new environment with a new offense.  And if the 49ers actually DO re-sign Crabtree, then his stock falls even more.  As for the WRs still in Baltimore, I guess Steve Smith's stock stays pretty high...and should actually even go up.  We'll see if Marlon Brown's stock goes up or if Baltimore will actually draft a WR somewhere in round 3 or 4 (as I'm sure the first two rounds will be reserved for defense).

STOCK UP Frank Gore to Indianapolis
The writing was on the walls for the Carlos Hyde era to begin in San Fran, so I feel like this move keeps Gore's stock higher than it would have been in the bay area.  He'll have every opportunity to be the main running back in one of the best offenses in the league.  This obviously hurts Ahmad Bradshaw and Dan Herron in Indy, but Carlos Hyde gets a huge boost in fantasy value with the departure of Gore.  I also think new 49er addition Reggie Bush (who was signed to just a one year contract) has his stock falling.  I don't think he'll have much impact, as Hyde should be the bell cow for San Francisco and Bush will continue to see a decreased workload.

Maclin's happy, but fantasy owners won't be.

STOCK DOWN Jeremy Maclin to Kansas City
I mean, going from Chip Kelly's offense to the place where fantasy WRs go to die.  It couldn't be much worse for Maclin fantasy owners, but at least in reality it's a homecoming for Jeremy.  The real winners are those still in Philly...Jordan Matthews and Zach Ertz!  I think Matthews gets an instant boost in fantasy value, and Ertz continues to get that speculative boost.  Many people though Ertz would break out in 2014, but now it's even more likely he does so in 2015...


STOCK UP Mark Ingram re-signing with New Orleans and CJ Spiller to New Orleans
The Saints let Pierre Thomas and Travaris Cadet go, and they re-signed Ingram to a 4-year $16 million deal.  They also signed Spiller to a 4-year deal worth $18 million.  I have no doubt that Sean Payton will utilize Spiller better Marrone did in Buffalo.  Of course health is always an issue with CJ, so Khiry Robinson remains a decent handcuff.  I just feel like his value is only there in the event of an injury to Ingram or Spiller.  As for Cadet, don't forget about this move.  He landed in New England and could be Shane Vereen's replacement...

STOCK DOWN Shane Vereen to the Giants
I'm all about the segues in this article, and I'll also be all about lowering ALL running backs for the G-Men now.  It's getting crowded back there with Jennings, Williams, and now Vereen.  I'm sure they'll all get used in some capacity, but it's hard to say how the split will be at this point in time.  I might be staying away from this 3-headed monster when it comes to my fantasy draft.

STOCK UP Andre Johnson to the Colts
In terms of yards/catch, touchdowns/game, or pretty much any other category...Andre Johnson had his worst season in ten years in 2014.  It was clear that DeAndre Hopkins had emerged as the #1 WR in Houston, and his stock probably only goes up now that Johnson is no longer there.  That being said, I think the old guy still has a little left in the tank.  He'll be turning 34 in July, but he'll also have Andrew Luck now throwing the ball his way for the next three years.  TY Hilton will likely still be the #1 WR for the Colts, but I think Johnson could get back to 1000+ yards receiving and could haul in 7 or 8 TDs as well.  As for Donte Moncrief, you can likely forget about him for your 2015 fantasy draft.  And seeing as how the Colts have forgotten about Reggie Wayne and Hakeem Nicks, I'm guessing the same will be said for them as well.

STOCK UP Antone Smith re-signing with the Falcons

Pardon the pun, but don't let this one fly under your radar.  As of right now, Smith is the only other running back Atlanta has on their roster other than Devonta Freeman (who will be entering just his second year in the league).  OK, I think technically they signed Jerome Smith off their practice squad at the end of last year, but I'm not counting him...at least for now.  If you paid attention in 2014, you may recall Antone Smith having several weeks of fantasy relevancy.  You may also recall he was impossible to play because he only touched the ball like 3 times a game.  But when he did, he made BIG plays and found the endzone.  If the Falcons don't re-sign Jacquizz Rodgers, bring in a free agent RB, or get one in the draft...?  Keep an eye on Antone Smith!

Here are a few more guys who may end up on different rosters in the coming weeks:

RBs
Stevan Ridley
Pierre Thomas
Chris Johnson
Steven Jackson
Ahmad Bradshaw
Jacquizz Rodgers
Knowshon Moreno
Ben Tate
Adrian Peterson (not a free agent, but still belongs on the watch list)

WRs
Michael Crabtree
Denarius Moore
Greg Jennings
Reggie Wayne
Wes Welker
Nate Washington
Hakeem Nicks

QBs/TEs
None to speak of, unless you count guys like Michael Vick or Jermaine Gresham


Stay tuned for an updated top-168 rankings in the weeks to come...

Cheers,
Bart

Way Too Early 2015 Fantasy Football Rankings

Last year I actually did this in January, so I kind of feel like a slacker.  Then again, I also feel a little more sane for not rushing to do these rankings before the actual NFL season was even over.  There is a lot of uncertainty around rankings done in February.  But one thing is for sure: it's never too early to get a jump on next season.  For reference, I'll also list some key dates to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.

Now: Draft Combine.  I'm not going to waste too much time talking about this.  I'll definitely do a rankings update when the draft rolls around, but it's too early to put much stock in this pageant show.

March 10: Free agency begins.  Last year I said to look for guys like Ben Tate and Rashad Jennings to potentially find themselves in position for feature roles.  That's exactly what happened in the start of 2014, although neither finished that way.  Still, free agency is definitely something worth paying attention to.  Personally, I'm very interested to see what happens with RGIII in Washington.  But there are much bigger story lines from a fantasy perspective.  While I don't think DeMarco Murray and Adrian Peterson will end up with anyone other than the Cowboys and Vikings (respectively), it could happen.  And there are other RBs like Mark Ingram and CJ Spiller who I think WILL be elsewhere.  In fact, I'd put money on Spiller landing with the Jags some time next month.  It's hard to imagine a team letting talent like Dez Bryant or Demaryius Thomas just walk out the door.  But it sure seems like Randall Cobb or Jeremy Maclin could end up donning different uniforms in 2015.  And just think what that would do for the value of Davante Adams and Jordan Mathews...

It might not matter where Amari lands in order to produce.

April 30: NFL Draft starts in Chicago.  You probably won't hear anything else from me until this point in time.  But like I said, I'll do another post-draft article once we see where all of the collegiate position players land.  I have a handful of rookies in my rankings right now, but that's also assuming they end up in decent fantasy situations (and not buried in the depth chart).  For some guys that might not matter, but for most it will...

So here's my initial list for the 2015 fantasy football season.  A lot will change between now and August (or whenever you do your fantasy draft).  A lot might even change in the next 2 or 3 months.  But this is a start.  I have several names that didn't quite make the top-168.  They might make the cut when things start really taking shape.  But that's a long time from now.  As usual, you'll find defenses and kickers at the very bottom of the list, but I'll end up moving the defenses around slightly (the kickers will stay at the tail end though).  I just didn't want to get that detailed yet.

But enough talk.  Here's my first edition of the 2015 rankings!

Cheers,
Bart

1. Eddie Lacy 2. Jamaal Charles 3. DeMarco Murray 4. Le'Veon Bell 5. Marshawn Lynch 6. LeSean McCoy 7. Adrian Peterson 8. Rob Gronkowski 9. Jimmy Graham 10. Aaron Rodgers 11. Andrew Luck 12. Matt Forte 13. Arian Foster 14. Jeremy Hill 15. CJ Anderson 16. Antonio Brown 17. Demaryius Thomas 18. Calvin Johnson 19. Jordy Nelson 20. Dez Bryant 21. Odell Beckham, Jr. 22. Julio Jones 23. AJ Green 24. Randall Cobb 25. Emmanuel Sanders 26. TY Hilton 27. Peyton Manning 28. Drew Brees 29. Julius Thomas 30. Lamar Miller 31. Joique Bell 32. Mark Ingram 33. Alfred Morris 34. Justin Forsett 35. Russell Wilson 36. Alshon Jeffery 37. Kelvin Benjamin 38. Mike Evans  39. DeAndre Hopkins 40. Jeremy Maclin 41. Brandon Marshall 42. Sammy Watkins 43. Carlos Hyde 44. Latavius Murray 45. Isaiah Crowell 46. Tre Mason 47. Melvin Gordon (R) 48. Jonathan Stewart 49. Andre Ellington 50. Ryan Mathews 51. Andre Williams 52. Chris Ivory 53. Bishop Sankey 54. Tom Brady 55. Matt Ryan 56. Cam Newton 57. Greg Olsen 58. Travis Kelce 59. Julian Edelman 60. DeSean Jackson 61. Amari Cooper (R) 62. Golden Tate 63. Torrey Smith 64. Jordan Matthews 65. Roddy White 66. Keenan Allen 67. Mike Wallace 68. Brandin Cooks 69. Doug Martin 70. Frank Gore 71. Fred Jackson 72. Devonta Freeman 73. Giovani Bernard 74. CJ Spiller  75. Ahmad Bradshaw 76. Rashad Jennings 77. Denard Robinson 78. Dwayne Allen 79. Martellus Bennett 80. Antonio Gates 81. Eric Decker 82. Vincent Jackson 83. Michael Floyd 84. Allen Robinson 85. Jarvis Landry 86. Martavis Bryant 87. Matthew Stafford 88. Ben Roethlisberger 89. Philip Rivers 90. Tony Romo 91. Ryan Tannehill  92. Dan Herron 93. Todd Gurley (R) 94. Shane Vereen 95. Darren Sproles 96. LeGarrette Blount 97. Terrance West 98. Charles Sims 99. Branden Oliver 100. Knile Davis 101. Brandon LaFell 102. Donte Moncrief 103. Kenny Stills 104. Charles Johnson 105. DaVante Parker (R) 106. Terrance Williams 107. Larry Fitzgerald  108. Andre Johnson 109. Victor Cruz  110. Stevan Ridley 111. Steven Jackson  112. Lorenzo Taliaferro 113. Christine Michael 114. Montee Ball 115. Reggie Bush 116. Jordan Cameron 117. Jordan Reed 118. Delanie Walker 119. Zach Ertz  120. Nick Foles 121. Jay Cutler 122. Eli Manning 123. Davante Adams 124. Doug Baldwin 125. John Brown 126. Cody Latimer 127. Percy Harvin 128. Pierre Garcon 129. Kendall Wright 130. Michael Crabtree 131. Anquan Boldin 132. Steve Smith 133. Colin Kaepernick 134. Teddy Bridgewater 135. Joe Flacco 136. Marcus Mariota 137. Charles Clay 138. Kyle Rudolph 139. Jason Witten 140. Pierre Thomas 141. Danny Woodhead 142. Darren McFadden 143. Chris Johnson 144. DeAngelo Williams 145. Seahawks DEFENSE 146. Patriots DEFENSE      147. Cardinals DEFENSE    148. Bills DEFENSE      149. Ravens DEFENSE   150. Texans DEFENSE 151. 49ers DEFENSE 152. Rams DEFENSE 153. Broncos DEFENSE 154. Panthers DEFENSE 155. Bengals DEFENSE 156. Dolphins DEFENSE 157. Stephen Gostkowski 158. Justin Tucker 159. Steven Hauschka 160. Cody Parkey 161. Adam Vinatieri 162. Mason Crosby 163. Dan Bailey  164. Matt Bryant 165. Shaun Suisham  166. Blair Walsh 167. Dan Carpenter 168. Connor Barth

2014 Fantasy End of Year Review

Well the fantasy football season is over, and I thought I'd take some time to take a look back at some of my calls in the 2014 fantasy season.  I did this last year and enjoyed it, so I'm giving it another go.  This won't be a recap of everything, but I'm also not going to just cherry pick the good calls.  I'll tell you what I got wrong too.  But if you really want to see all of my preseason predictions, just go back and read it all (ha!).  This will be a long one, but you're just sitting around watching bowl games anyway right now, right???

First off, here's the list of guys I said I'd let someone else draft.  This is the ENTIRE list, and I must say that I'm pretty glad I didn't end up with any of these dudes...

Dude, look around...cheer up!

Ryan Mathews

I had been a Ryan Mathews owner for what seemed like every year he's been in the league, but I wasn't about to draft him this season.  Between the injury history and the inconsistency, I suggested drafting someone like Rashad Jennings instead of Mathews.  That's exactly what I did actually, and it worked out pretty well.  Jennings was a stud for me in the first half of the season (until he got himself hurt coincidentally), but then I used him in a deal to get Megatron.  Can't complain there.  As for Mathews, he was nearly a top-20 fantasy RB when healthy (right behind Jennings in fantasy points/game as a matter of fact).  But since he only played in 6 games, Ryan Mathews found himself well outside of the top-50 RBs in 2014.

Fred Jackson

Maybe Father Time finally has caught up with Fred.  The injury bug got him for a couple of games this season, and his production in the running game wasn't nearly as good as in year's past.  In fact, he had his lowest average yards/carry this season (3.7), and it was his involvement in the passing game that kept him as a top-25 fantasy RB.  We'll see what happens with C.J. Spiller in the offseason, but I don't think Fred Jackson will be the RB to own in Buffalo moving forward.

Jay Cutler

OK, so Jay actually was a top-10 fantasy QB before getting benched for Jimmy Clausen in Week 16 (yikes!), and he finished as the #14 ranked QB in my league.  He was pretty consistent in the first 6 weeks of the season, but then he went back and forth between big games and sigle digit fantasy points the rest of the year.  I'll continue to be down on Cutler every year he stays employed in the NFL.

David Wilson or Jermichael Finley

If you recall back to the preseason, ESPN had David Wilson ranked as a top-40 RB and Finley as a top-25 TE (even though the latter wasn't even on a roster at the time).  I didn't rank either, and neither played a snap in 2014.  I'm not sure what Finley is doing these days, but I hope for Wilson's sake, we'll see him in the 2016 Olympics!

Percy Harvin

For a guy who had never eclipsed the 1000-yard receiving mark, I thought the experts were way too high on Harvin before the season started.  I ranked him in the mid-20s among WRs, and most experts had him well inside their top-20.  We all know what happened next: the Seahawks traded him to the Jets and he was barely heard of the entire season.  I'll let someone else continue to believe the hype on Percy.

Reggie Wayne

I ranked this old timer as my #45 WR in my last preseason update before my fantasy draft, and most experts had him WAY higher than that.  Not only was Wayne coming off a torn ACL, but I just didn't think he was worth the high price tag anymore.  At the time I said "I'd much rather reach for Hilton a couple of rounds earlier", and I sure wish I had done that!  Either way, I'm glad I didn't end up drafting Reggie Wayne.  He had a decent start to the 2014 campaign, but he was very inconsistent after Week 5 and was likely on the waiver wire in most leagues as he finished outside of the top-50 WRs.

Ladarius Green OR Antonio Gates
I guess this is the first name that I could honestly say I would have been OK with on my roster.  But there was so much preseason hype around Ladarius Green, there was no way I was touching Gates.  Well done if you had the guts to draft Gates (or the smarts to pick him up off the waiver wire before he blew up for 3 TDs in Week 2).

What a waste of a pick this guy was, even in the last round!

A kicker with a Week 4 bye

During my fantasy drafts, the only thing I pay less attention to than bye weeks is probably the kicker position.  But my point here was that Week 4 is way too early to be forced to make a decision on waiving a kicker or a rookie receiver with potential.  If you drafted a guy like Prater or Hauschka, that's exactly what you could have been faced with.  And in the case of Prater, he actually started the year with a 4-game suspension and then got cut anyway!  The first rule with kickers is to always take them in the last round.  But I think a second rule should be to try to draft one with a bye week of 8 or later.

So mostly good calls with those guys, but what about that list of players ready for the next level I wrote about in the preseason?  I thought these guys were primed to make that jump into the next tier of their respective fantasy football positions, but not all of them worked out.  Again, this is the entire list...

QB: Josh McCown

McCown didn't have a terrible start to the season, but when he injured his thumb in Week 3 in a blowout loss in Atlanta, he didn't gain the starting gig back until Week 10 (coincidentally, against Atlanta).  The Bucs only won 2 games all year, and one of those was with McCown against my Redskins.  But this wasn't so much a bad call as a really bad team compounded with an early-season injury.  We'll see what happens with McCown in 2015 because with the #1 overall pick in the 2015 draft, I wouldn't be surpised to see Tampa Bay use it on Mariota.

I won't hide behind my bad calls.  This one was rough.

RB: Toby Gerhart

I wasn't the only one who liked the Gerhart move to Jacksonville, but this was probably the worst pick in the first couple rounds of anyone's fantasy draft this year.  I will pat myself on the back here though because I actually picked up Gerhart and started him in my Week 16 third place game.  He had his best game of the year in that matchup against the Titans and helped me get my money back!

RB: Joique Bell

Finally, a good call!  He had a bit of a slow start this year, but after sitting out Week 5 with a concussion, Joique got things going and was a top-15 fantasy RB this year.  Move over, Reggie...

WR: Terrance Williams

I actually ended up drafting this guy, and his stock was sky high through the first half of the season.  In his first 8 games he had 6 TD catches, but then Romo just stopped looking his way in the redzone.  At least I was able to deal him when his stock was still high, but his jump to the "next level" was definitely short-lived.

WR: Rueben Randle

Another bad call here, and it definitely wasn't for a lack of opportunity.  We all know about Odell Beckham Jr. now, but he didn't hit the scene until Week 5 due to injury.  And it was Week 6 when Victor Cruz was lost for the year.  All the while, Rueben Randle was a target monster!  But what did he do with those targets?  Not much, really.  Through Week 15, he had one week of double-digit fantasy production all year.  Of course he finished very strong in his last two games of the season, helping no one in the process since there's no way anyone had him in their fantasy lineup at that point.  In the end, it was the rookie Beckham who made the quick next level jump and not Randle.

TE: Kyle Rudolph
There was a lot of talk of Rudolph having a big year with new OC Norv Turner.  But after Week 3, the young tight end missed 8 weeks due to a sports hernia.  It's the second year in a row that Rudolph has had a lost season due to injury, but I'm sure he'll be a sleeper candidate yet again in 2015...

Another article I did in the preseason started by asking the question "Who is this year's Zac Stacy?"  Of course at the time no one knew the answer to that question, but I thought it'd be kind of cool to throw a guess out there.  I prefaced this little exercise by saying that "I might even get a couple of these right...but I'll probably get most of them wrong."  So let's see these questions, my original answers, and who the answer really ended up being when it was all said and done.
(NOTE: I removed the ones that didn't end up with an actual "answer".  For instance, no one fit the "Josh Gordon" category this season.)

Quesiton: Who is this year's Zac Stacy?
[Description: A rookie (later-round NFL draft pick) who is in a clouded backfield situation, UNDRAFTED in virtually all fantasy leagues, but could get a shot sooner rather than later to be the "bellcow" running back.]

This year's Zac Stacy?  Aghh!  So obvious!!!

My Original Answer: Lorenzo Taliaferro
Actual Answer: Tre Mason
How's that for irony?  The answer to this question was right there in the very same backfield!  Not only that, but it was pretty much the same time frame as in 2013 with Stacy.  To be fair, Taliaferro wasn't a terrible guess.  At the time, Ray Rice was set to just miss the first two games of the season, and it was thought that Bernard Pierce would be the starter.  After some ineffective play from Pierce, Taliaferro and Forsett got their chances as well.  Of course now we all know that it was Forsett who came out on top when the dust settled.  As for Tre Mason, we'll see if he can keep the job in 2015 or if the Rams continue their backfield shenanigans.


Quesiton: Who is this year's Knowshon Moreno?
[Description: Former early round NFL draft pick, career plagued by injuries, but finally finds himself in a nice spot to be a feature running back.]

My Original Answer: Ben Tate
Actual Answer: Mark Ingram
No one really fits this category quite like Knowshon in 2013, but Ingram is the closest thing to it.  A former Heisman Trophy winner and 2011 1st round pick by the Saints, Mark Ingram found himself in somewhat of a make-or-break year.  Well, he was making things happen in the first couple of weeks of the 2014 season until he broke his hand and missed 3 games (see what I did there...?).  Anyway, he picked up where he left off and finished as a top-15 fantasy RB.

Q: Who is this year's Danny Woodhead?
[Description: Shifty veteran who sneakily finishes in the top-20 overall fantasy RBs.]

My Original Answer: Dexter McCluster
Actual Answer: Darren Sproles
The easy answer here is Justin Forsett, but he didn't exactly sneak into the top-20.  The guy was a top-10 fantasy running back this year!  The obvious answer here is Sproles.  I mean, how many comparisons do you think Danny Woodhead has gotten to Darren Sproles during his football career?  It's only fitting that we throw it back to Sproles and recognize his shiftiness and how he was able to nearly sneak into the top-25 RBs this season.

Q: Who is this year's Keenan Allen?
[Description: Rookie WR who finds himself on a team with a solid QB in need of a #1 WR, so he becomes that guy.  Must be late-round fantasy pick or even undrafted in most leagues.]

My Original Answer: Jordan Matthews
Actual Answer: Odell Beckham Jr...also Jordan Matthews (sort of)
In what ended up being the year of the rookie WR, it's not surprising that a couple of guys fit this category.  And will you look at that?  One of them is the guy I picked in the preseason!  The fact is, I almost talked up up Kelvin Benjamin in this spot, but a lot of people were expecting him to fill that void in Carolina.  As a result, he rose to the level of Watkins and Evans in a lot of fantasy drafts.  But Mathews and Beckham were flying under the radar in the preseason, and both ended up as top-25 WRs this season.  However, it's Odell Beckham Jr. who really fits this category.  With the injury to Victor Cruz, New York needed someone to step up and be the guy.  It's clear that Beckham, Jr. is that guy and may continue to be in the future for the Giants.  And like Keenan Allen in 2013, he finished as a top-20 WR even though he wasn't a big part of the offense until the second half of the season.  Unlike Allen, Odell finished as a top-5 fantasy WR and actually was #1 among all WRs in fantasy poins per game!



Q: Who is this year's Carolina Panthers?
[Description: Average fantasy defense the previous year (Carolina was around #15 in 2012) but a consistent top-3 fantasy defense this season (Carolina ended up as #2 fantasy defense in 2013).  Has to be undrafted in many leagues, which has me excluding the Broncos.]

My Original Answer: New Orleans Saints
Actual Answer: Buffalo Bills
Not. Even. Close.
Talk about a tough one to predict though.  This one is nearly impossible.  Earlier in the year, I would have said this category would go to the Detroit Lions.  But they had 4 or 5 weeks where they didn't really show up...and we're talking about games against the NFC South!  As for the Bills, they finished as the #2 fantasy defense (just behind the Texans).  They were selected outside of the top-12 in nearly all fantasy drafts, so they were likely a waiver wire add.  Good for you if you were able to ride them all year.  Even better if you had the guts to start them against the Broncos and Packers late in the season because they did just fine in those tough matchups.

Q: Who is this year's Andy Dalton?
[Description: Somewhat of a boring mid-round fantasy pick, a guy in his 3rd or 4th year in the league, goes from a #12 or so fantasy QB one year to top-5 the next.]

My Original Answer: Colin Kaepernick
Actual Answer: Ryan Tannehill (sort of)
I almost picked Tannehill instead of Josh McCown for my "QB Ready for the Next Level" too.  Oh well.  Another missed opportunity.  Anyway, Tannehill doesn't quite fit this category because he wasn't a top-5 fantasy QB this year.  But he was in the top-10.  Close enough, right?  Also, he's been underrated all year...pretty much until Week 13 when people decided to jump on the Tannehill bandwagon.  He had a nice matchup against the Jets, and most people were ranking him in the top-5.  What did he do?  He had his only game all year without a TD.  Ha!  But seriously, Tannehill was solid this year and really made a leap to that next level of QBs.  As long as he still has weapons like Lamar Miller, Mike Wallace, and Jarvis Landry in 2015, I don't think many people will be sleeping on him.

So what about REAL football?  Before the season started, I looked at every single matchup in the 2014 NFL season and did my own personal simulation.  I was left with what I thought might be the storylines of each division, but let's see what I got right and what I got wrong...

AFC East
What I said: The Patriots will continue to dominate a weak division, but I think they'll dominate the rest of the league along the way too.  Not only will Tom Brady play like an MVP at age 37, but the defense is going to play their part too.

What happened: New England locked up the division in Week 15 with a 41-13 win over the Dolphins.  Many people were worried about the Pats after the first 4 weeks of the season, but they only lost one game after that...on the road in Lambeau 26-21 (no, I'm not counting the Week 17 loss to Buffalo because that was a meaningless game and the Pats didn't even play their starters the whole game).  Oh and New England was easily a top-10 fantasy defense this year too.

AFC North

I always look forward to this matchup...

What I said: I think this division will get back to producing two playoff teams this season.  I'm hoping the other is Baltimore, but I could realistically see it being any of them.  Like last year, I think Cincinnati will make the playoffs and the Ravens might be on the outside looking in.  Unlike last year, I think the Steelers will improve on defense and somehow win this division for the first time since 2010, when they made it all the way to the Super Bowl.

What happened: Pretty damn close with this one.  I nailed it with picking the Steelers to win the division, but three teams actually got in instead of the two I predicted.  Well it's January, so I guess I can temporarily forget about the Redskins and root for my wife's Ravens now!

AFC South
What I said: I'm going out on a limb and not sticking with Indy, even though I think the rest of the division is likely to still be weak (especially the Jags).  I won't be surprised if Ken Whisenhunt brings some magic to Tennessee.  If Locker can stay healthy, maybe it'll be the Titans (and not the Texans) who become this year's surprise division winner.

What happened:  Next year I'm sticking with Indy.  I did make the caveat that Locker needed to stay healthy (which he didn't), but the Titans were just awful this year.  I have no excuse for this pick, but it really is my only bad pick of the "Real Football Predictions".  

AFC West
What I said:  As long as Peyton Manning is healthy, this will be Denver (and it's not even close).  I also think the Chiefs will make the playoffs in back-to-back seasons since...probably before I even played fantasy football.  If Manning misses time due to injury, it'll probably crush my fantasy team.  It also would open the door wide open for KC to take the division.

What happened: Like New England, Denver locked up their division in Week 15 (so it wasn't close).  As for the Chiefs?  They finished 9-7 and I believe were the last team in the playoff picture on the outside looking in.

Philly missed Foles down the stretch

NFC East
What I said: I'm probably being conservative with 9 wins for the Eagles, but I think they'll take the division again no matter how many wins they end up with.  But their first Super Bowl?  I don't think so...

What happened: Philly actually got their 9th win in Dallas on Thanksgiving (Week 13), but then they lost their next three, including one in Washington!  That being said...how 'bout them Cowboys?!?  Dallas won the division and Philly missed the playoffs, even with a 10-6 record.  Like the Chiefs in the AFC, the Eagles were the best team in the NFC not to make the playoffs.

NFC North 
What I said: I don't doubt Green Bay will win this division for the 4th year in a row, but Detroit could be really close.

What happened: The Lions and Packers played for the division in Week 17, and Green Bay came out on top while Detroit got a Wild Card spot.

NFC South
What I said: I'm rolling with the Saints in 2014.  I think this will be one of the toughest divisions in the league this season, and I actually think the Panthers will end up 9-7 somehow...

What happened: One of the toughest divisions in the league?  Ha!  OK, so I guess that's two bad calls in this section...and I didn't get the division winner right with New Orleans.  Carolina became the first team to win the NFC South in back-to-back seasons, albeit with a record of 7-8-1.

NFC West
What I said: San Fran and Seattle will continue to steamroll the league with their defenses.  Both will make the playoffs, but I'll take the Niners to win the division.  I don't think Arizona will be that second NFC Wild Card.

What happened: Seattle and San Fran both had top-5 defenses, but the 49ers had a horrible offense, specifically their passing game.  They missed the playoffs with an 8-8 record and Seattle won the division.  The Cardinals started the year 9-1, lost Carson Palmer and also 4 of their last 6 games, but hung on to finish 11-5 and get the other NFC Wild Card spot.

For reference, here was my full list of predictions:

AFC East: New England Patriots

AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers

AFC South: Tennessee Titans

AFC West: Denver Broncos

AFC Wild Card1: Kansas City Chiefs

AFC Wild Card2: Cincinnati Bengals

[New England over Denver in AFC Championship Game]

NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles

NFC North: Green Bay Packers

NFC South: New Orleans Saints

NFC West: San Francisco 49ers

NFC Wild Card1: Seattle Seahawks

NFC Wild Card2: Detroit Lions

[New Orleans over Seattle in NFC Championship Game]

Super Bowl Prediction: New England over New Orleans

I'm sticking with the half that is still alive for my Super Bowl pick.  I'll take the Pats to win the whole thing...

Once again, I want to thank my readers out there.  I know there aren't a lot of you, but it's good to hear that people are actually reading it (and some even enjoying and using the information).  Hopefully I'll still be able to make the time in 2015 to do all of the preseason articles, rankings, re-rankings, weekly rankings, and everything else that makes this blog what it is.  Thanks again, enjoy the playoffs, and Happy New Year to everyone!

Cheers,

Bart

Last Fantasy Football Post of 2014

I'm not doing rankings this week because I mean, come on.  Who is still playing fantasy football in Week 17?  Hopefully not you.  If so, feel free to send a question my way and I'll answer it for you.  This week, I'm just going to do a quick recap of my Week 16 picks versus the ESPN experts, and I'll give a little preview of next week's article.  Yes, I'll be blogging next week.  I'm off work until January 5th.  What else am I going to do?  Clean my house?  Ha!

Anyway, it was another good year for me in fantasy, but I didn't win a championship.  I finished in the top-3 in total fantasy points and was actually in 1st place before the fantasy playoffs started.  In fact, I had a very similar season last year in my money league.  At least this year I didn't score the most points in Week 16 (like last year) because then this part of the article would sound even saltier.  But like last year, a different seed in the fantasy playoffs would have won the whole thing for me.  Strange enough, last year I needed one more regular season win and this year needed one more regular season loss.  If things had fallen a little differently in one week or another, I'd have my name on the trophy.  But it wasn't meant to be this year either.  And I know this all sounds bitter, but I also realize that's just how fantasy works out.

So I finished 3rd (again), and my finishes from 2003-2014 are now as follows:
1st, 4th, 3rd, 7th, 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 5th, 4th, 7th, 3rd, 3rd...          I guess I'll take it.

As for next season, I've set myself up with some decent keeper options too.  I still have Jordy Nelson for another year, and in addition to him will have the following options (can only keep one):
Cam Newton, Latavius Murray, Bishop Sankey, and Jordan Matthews.

But enough about my team.  Let's look back to last week and see what I got right and what I got wrong...

It was ANOTHER rough one for fantasy QBs.  Andrew Luck actually had negative points before getting pulled in the second half in a blowout loss to the Cowboys.  Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady each only threw for one TD pass.  And Peyton Manning threw for 2 TDs but also had 4 picks and nearly finished outside of the top-20!  That being said, I was high on Tony Romo for the second week in a row (ESPN #10, ME #6), and he finished as the 3rd-best fantasy QB for the second week in a row.  Nailed that one. I know. I was shocked you played well too. Of course I was also down on was Philip Rivers (ESPN #15, ME not ranked), who had a terrible first half and looked like he'd be outside of the top-20 fantasy QBs...and then the 4th quarter happened.  He turned things around and led a huge comeback win and finished as a top-5 fantasy QB.  I'm sure glad my opponent played Big Ben instead of him last week! Back to nailing it though. I got it right with Matt Asiata (ESPN #26, ME #20), as he ran all over the Dolphins in a high scoring game.  He was a top-3 RB and came close to having another three touchdown performance.  As for Giovani Bernard (ESPN #22, ME #30), I was wrong there.  He actually was very productive with his touches and even found the endzone against Denver on Monday night.  He finished as a top-15 RB. I was also wrong about Golden Tate (ESPN #22, ME #15), but Anquan Boldin (ESPN #33, ME not ranked) also put up mediocre numbers.  Both guys finished outside of the top-40 wide receivers in Week 16.  I was also fortunate that Owen Daniels (ESPN #17, ME #11) had a quiet day, along with all of the other Ravens except for Torrey Smith. As for the defenses, I was high on the Jags (ESPN #17, ME #10) and Titans (ESPN #18, ME #12) versus the ESPN experts because I was predicting a low-scoring Thursday night game with two brutal offenses.  The Jags won the game 21-13 and were actually a top-12 fantasy defense.  The Titans were not.  But you know who else wasn't a top-12 defense?...the Arizona Cardinals (ESPN #6, ME not ranked).  I said they wouldn't come close to winning this game and that Seattle would score 20+ points while not turning the ball over.  Well that's exactly what happened.  Arizona gave up 35 points, had just one sack, and they were the WORST fantasy defense you could have started in Week 16!!!  How's that to an end to my 2014 picks versus the ESPN guys, huh?!? So that's it for 2014.  Like I said, I'm going to do another article next week, but it'll likely be later in the week (and thus in 2015).  I'll be recapping my preseason picks to see what I got right and what I got wrong there.  For instance, I was high on guys like Cordarrelle Patterson and Kyle Rudolph.  Luckily I didn't end up with either in my leagues because they were huge busts this season.  But I also suggested not to reach for WRs like Percy Harvin or Reggie Wayne.  So you win some and you lose some.  I'll also be recapping my REAL football predictions, which are looking pretty good (aside from the Titans...yikes).   Anyway, good luck to anyone who is still playing in Week 17.  And if you are, maybe join a different league in 2015 (or at least talk to your commish about changing the rules!). Cheers, Bart

2014 Fantasy Football Week 16 Rankings

We'll have none of that this week, Jordy!

Well, my championship run came to an end last week as my opponent dropped 150 on me.  I knew I was in trouble when I was down something like 62-8 around halftime of the early games.  I mean, ALL of his players were scoring touchdowns (even Baltimore D!).  I think he ended up with 11 total touchdowns on his squad...very impressive.  Meanwhile, I didn't even crack 100 as Peyton Manning continued to put up poor fantasy numbers.  But that's how it goes.  I'll try to get the 3rd place money this week as I face a guy who barely scored 60 fantasy points in Week 15.  I'm sure that won't be the case again, so I'm hoping to actually get some production out of guys like Jordy Nelson and Megatron.

But enough about my team.  I know you only care about your own, so let's do the rankings!

QBs 1.Drew Brees  2.Aaron Rodgers  3.Andrew Luck  4.Matt Ryan  5.Tom Brady   6.Tony Romo  7.Peyton Manning  8.Matthew Stafford   9.Ben Roethlisberger  10.Mark Sanchez 11.Russell Wilson 12.Ryan Tannehill  13.Joe Flacco   14.Alex Smith  15.RGIII A quick note about my rankings this week before I go any further.  You may notice that my lists have shrunk a bit.  Well, it's Week 16 and lots of people probably aren't even looking at rankings anymore.  But for the people who are, I can't imagine you're deciding between Kyle Orton or Teddy Bridgewater as your QB during Championship Week.  So I'm tightening up all of these lists.  Deal with it! Anyway, if we look back to Week 15, it was a rough one for fantasy QBs.  I already mentioned Peyton Manning, but Aaron Rodgers sure picked a bad time to have literally the worst game of his NFL career.  At least Drew Brees owners were happy as he was the top fantasy QB in Week 15.  As for my QB picks, I nailed them once again.  I was high on Tony Romo (ESPN #13, ME #8), who finished 3rd behind Brees and Eli (who torched my Redskins).  The guy I was down on was Matthew Stafford (ESPN #7, ME #12), and he nearly finished outside of the top-20.   I'm high on: Tony Romo (ESPN #10, ME #6)   I'd like to give you someone different this week, but I'm really high on Romo again, so I'll stick with him.  The ESPN experts moved him up slightly from 13th to 10th this week, but it's not high enough.  If you throw out the Thanksgiving game against Philly, only Drew Brees is putting up more fantasy points than Romo since his return from that back injury in Week 10.  If you consider the fact that DeMarco Murray is dealing with a hand injury, I think it's very possible Romo goes to the air a little more in this contest.  Yes, I realize it's December and this is Tony Romo we're talking about here.  But so far, he's bucking the trend. I'm down on: Philip Rivers (ESPN #15, ME not ranked)  I know, I know.  I was down him 3 weeks ago, and he lit up the Ravens in Baltimore.  But this is different because the 49ers are a top-10 defense against fantasy QBs this season, and Baltimore has been terrible in that department ever since the injury to corner Jimmy Smith (a bad call on my part for sure).  But Rivers hasn't been a top-20 fantasy QB over his last 6 games, and aside from that game against Baltimore, he has 4 TDs and 7 INTs in those other 5 games.  And on top of all of that, it looks like he'll be without Keenan Allen on Saturday night in San Francisco.  There are so many QBs I'd put in my roster this week over Philip Rivers, including the following if I were to expand my list back to 20: Eli Manning, Kyle Orton, Teddy Bridgewater, and probably even Josh McCown and Derek Anderson.  Get the point?  I don't like Rivers this week. RBs 1.Le'Veon Bell 2.Jamaal Charles   3.C.J. Anderson    4.Eddie Lacy 5.Arian Foster 6.DeMarco Murray 7.Joique Bell   8.Justin Forsett 9.Matt Forte  10.Mark Ingram  11.Marshawn Lynch   12.Tre Mason 13.LeSean McCoy 14.Jeremy Hill  15.Fred Jackson     16.Lamar Miller 17.Steven Jackson  18.Alfred Morris   19.Latavius Murray  20.Matt Asiata 21.Dan Herron  22.Jonathan Stewart 23.Andre Williams 24.Toby Gerhart  25.Isaiah Crowell  26.Doug Martin  27.Chris Ivory    28.LeGarrette Blount 29.Alfonso Smith 30.Giovani Bernard  31.Kerwynn Williams   32.Pierre Thomas 33.Shane Vereen  34.Bishop Sankey  35.Branden Oliver 36.Chris Johnson 37.Trent Richardson 38.James Starks  39.Terrance West 40.Shonn Greene Not only was I wrong about Tre Mason last week (ESPN #26, ME #16), but my opponent sat him and his stinker of a game.  Of course it wouldn't have mattered because I got destroyed, but it just added a little insult to injury.  This week I like Mason as a borderline RB1 in his tasty matchup against the G-Men.  As for Chris Ivory (ESPN #16, ME #25), it looked like I was right until his game-winning touchdown late in the 4th quarter.  He only had 26 total yards otherwise, and he finished as the #20 RB in Week 15.  Whatever.  I'm going to chalk that one up in the win column. I really could use DeMarco Murray this week, so I'm hoping he plays with that broken hand.  I'm ranking him like he's playing and will be close to 100% effective.  I mean, he may not be targeted in the passing game much if he has a cast on his left hand, but he doesn't need the catches in order to be a top-5 fantasy running back.  I have Joseph Randle as a backup plan, but I don't want to resort to him... I'm high on: Matt Asiata (ESPN #26, ME #20) Who knows? Maybe he'll have another 3-TD game... He's been limited in practice this week with a foot injury, but assuming he's active against the Dolphins, I like Asiata a lot this week.  Ben Tate has been getting a little more involved in the offense lately, but with McKinnon no longer a threat to his touches, Asiata is essentially the bellcow in that backfield.  You can't say that for many guys outside of the top-20, and any touchdowns should be of the rushing variety this week in Miami. I'm down on: Giovani Bernard (ESPN #22, ME #30)  I'm a little lower than the ESPN experts on Jeremy Hill too, and a lot of that has to do with Denver's tough run defense.  But Gio hasn't seen double-digit fantasy numbers since before his injury (Week 8), and his best game was last week in which he got some garbage time points as they were blowing out Cleveland.  I don't see them doing that to Peyton Manning and company, and I think Hill should get most of the work in Week 16.  I just can't see ranking Bernard as a RB2 at this point. WRs 1.Calvin Johnson  2.Dez Bryant      3.Odell Beckham, Jr.  4.Antonio Brown  5.Demaryius Thomas   6.Jordy Nelson 7.Jeremy Maclin  8.A.J. Green    9.TY Hilton 10.Randall Cobb   11.Mike Evans 12.Emmanuel Sanders  13.Julian Edelman          14.Alshon Jeffery   15.Golden Tate   16.Kelvin Benjamin 17.Harry Douglas 18.DeAndre Hopkins   19.Roddy White  20.Sammy Watkins  21.DeSean Jackson 22.Brandon LaFell   23.Kenny Stills 24.Josh Gordon   25.Jordan Matthews       26.Mike Wallace 27.Marques Colston 28.Steve Smith, Sr.  29.Charles Johnson 30.Jarvis Landry   31.Vincent Jackson   32.Nate Washington 33.Malcom Floyd 34.Martavis Bryant  35.Torrey Smith 36.Pierre Garcon  37.Andre Johnson   38.Donte Moncrief   39.Eric Decker  40.Stedman Bailey I was dead wrong with my WR picks last week.  Marqise Lee (ESPN #42, ME #29) got plenty of targets, but he didn't do much with them.  And of course Mike Wallace (ESPN #28, ME #38) had his best game of the year against a Patriot secondary that had been shutting down some of the best receivers in the league in recent weeks.  But you know what?  I'm fine with those picks.  The pick that really (could have) mattered was the one that I made for my own fantasy lineup.  I actually inserted Harry Douglas in for Kenny Stills (or Jordan Mathews).  That turned out to be my best call of the week, albeit in a matchup I still lost by 50 fantasy points (as I've now mentioned at least 3 times...sorry, I'll stop).  This week I'm ranking the Falcon WRs like Julio will be out again, so Harry Douglas is way up there.  Of course if Julio is able to play, I think he's a top-10 WR and Douglas would fall well into the 30s. I'm high on: Golden Tate (ESPN #22, ME #15)   Several weeks back, I traded Tate to my Week 16 opponent for Cam Newton straight up.  I'm in a keeper league, so I viewed Cam as a much better keeper option.  Anyway, we've all seen what Chicago's defense can (or can't) do this season.  I think Stafford is likely to throw 2 or 3 TDs in this game, and I don't think they all go to Megatron.  I sure hope they do, but I think Tate will snag one himself.  I could easily see him with 80+ yards and a score in this one. I'm down on: Anquan Boldin (ESPN #33, ME not ranked)  I kept my WR list to just 40 this week, but Boldin didn't make the cut.  He has really struggled in his last 3 games, and some of that is due to facing Seattle twice in that span.  But if you look at his last 5 contests, the only bright spot was against my horrible Redskins.  I wouldn't want to trust Boldin as a WR3 in my fantasy championship, and I'd rather take a flier on a guy like Martavis Bryant or even Nate Washington instead. TEs 1.Rob Gronkowski   2.Jimmy Graham  3.Greg Olsen  4.Julius Thomas  5.Martellus Bennett  6.Antonio Gates 7.Travis Kelce 8.Delanie Walker  9.Dwayne Allen 10.Jason Witten  11.Owen Daniels 12.Coby Fleener Take it easy, Owen. I left both Larry Donnell and Jordan Reed off the tight end list this week, and on Tuesday this seemed to be a dangerous move because my opponent had both of them.  But now he has picked up Owen Daniels off waivers and will likely start him against me.  So I might as well discuss Daniels here, since I have him much higher than the experts (ESPN #17, ME #11)  .  He had a big game against Jacksonville in Week 15, and now he goes back to Houston in what is a revenge game for the veteran.  Of course he'll need Flacco to throw his way to have value, but I think he has a decent shot this week.  And if my opponent does use Daniels against me, that's fair.  He owned Delanie Walker most of the season, and I'll be starting the Titan against him tonight! DEF 1.Bills 2.Seahawks  3.Patriots  4.Lions  5.Rams 6.Ravens   7.Eagles   8.Panthers  9.Packers 10.Jags  11.Dolphins  12.Titans I was high on the Colts versus the ESPN experts for the second time this year (ESPN #19, ME #14).  In both cases they were playing the Texans, and in both cases I was right.  They finished in the top-10, and I like the Ravens to take advantage of Thad Lewis or Case Keenum behind center in Houston this week.  As for my other pick, the 49ers (ESPN #13, ME not ranked) finished outside of the top-15.  I'm not excited about them this week either, as they host a Charger squad who is still fighting for a playoff spot. I'm high on: Jags (ESPN #17, ME #10) and Titans (ESPN #18, ME #12) Jacksonville has nearly been a top-10 fantasy defense in their last 4 games, and now they get a primetime matchup against an offense starring Charlie Whitehurst and Shonn Greene.  As for the Titans, well they haven't exactly been a top-10 defense very often at all this year.  But who cares?  This is the Jaguars they're facing this week!  The Jags are giving up the most fantasy points to opposing defenses this year, and it's not even that close.  I don't see how the Titans aren't higher than 15th in ANY of the ESPN expert lists this week, especially considering these Thursday night games are often low-scoring affairs (and these two offenses are brutal). I'm down on: Cardinals (ESPN #6, ME not ranked) Speaking of top-10 defenses, Arizona certainly qualifies.  But with only 12 defenses on my list this week, they're just barely on the outside looking in.  In Week 12, they actually had a season-high 7 sacks against the Seahawks.  Of course they still lost that game 19-3, and I don't see them coming close to winning this game either.  I think Seattle will score 20+ points, not turn the ball over, and the Cardinals will NOT be a top-10 fantasy defense this week. That's it for Week 16.  Good luck everyone (except you, Tommy). Cheers, Bart