We're now two episodes into Hard Knocks, which means it's officially really long fantasy football article season. In this piece, I take a look at every team's depth chart to find that "value" guy you can actually draft from each squad.
For some people, you may just want to find your favorite team and see who you might be able to get there. I mean, fantasy football above all else is supposed to be fun, right? Let's say you're a Chiefs fan, and you're super tempted to draft Mahomes in the first round. And if that's what you want to do, go for it. But maybe you understand the value of drafting a QB later than that. Maybe you're in a league with a bunch of other KC fans and you're never able to draft him unless you have a top pick or have to spend a ton in an auction.
Whatever the case may be, I've highlighted a guy on every NFL team I like based on his current ADP (Average Draft Position - using FantasyPros as my reference for half PPR leagues). I'm excluding defenses and kickers for this exercise, as those positions are typically saved for the last two rounds of drafts regardless. I'm also not going to list every single player for every team. This article is already long enough. I'm trying to keep it somewhat focused.
Also keep in mind, I wouldn't draft all of these guys way higher than their ADP, and it certainly doesn't mean I'd draft Mecole Hardman over Patrick Mahomes! It just means I like Hardman at his value (currently the 12th round). And if you want a piece of that Chiefs offense, he's a cheap option. But for every guy I've mentioned below, I'm considering them at or even a little before the round they're going in. I've put the ADP in parentheses (as of a day or so ago - it'll change over the next few weeks) and put each guy I like in bold/italics. Let's get to it!
AFC East
Buffalo Bills
Stefon Diggs (14)
Josh Allen (33)
Zack Moss (94)
Zack Moss improved as his rookie season went on, but he went down with an ankle injury at the end of Buffalo's opening playoff game against the Colts. The Bills then struggled to run the ball against the Ravens and Chiefs, and it was actually TJ Yeldon carrying the rock in the second half of the AFC Championship game. I don't think this coaching staff trusts Singletary much, and I like Moss to get the bulk of the RB timeshare in Buffalo. I'm hoping after signing a huge contract that Josh Allen takes it easy with the goal line runs, and Moss could be a nice middle round value if that's the case.
Miami Dolphins
Myles Gaskin (44)
Devante Parker (137)
Tua Tagovailoa (159)
There wasn't much to like about Miami's offense for fantasy purposes last year, but that means there's some value here in 2021. And if there's anyone who could be this year's Stefon Diggs, it just might be Will Fuller. He didn't sign a huge contract, but he should have something to prove on such a short term deal. He's missing the first game of the season due to the carryover PED suspension from last year, but that will only suppress his ADP even more. Health is of course the main concern with Fuller, but if Tua can take that next step, Fuller could be a top-10 fantasy WR if he plays 15 or 16 games.
New England Patriots
Damien Harris is the only guy I can see myself realistically drafting on this team, and his ADP is pretty fair. However, if Mac Jones were to be named the Week 1 starter, I'd draft Harris even earlier than this. In that scenario, Harris would no longer have the threat of Cam stealing goal line carries, so he feels like a value behind one of the best offensive lines in the league. If you'd rather have a dart throw for the Patriots at the end of your draft, for what it's worth I think Jakobi Myers is the best receiver on this team. And if Reception Perception likes a receiver with an ADP over 300, he's worth a super late round pick in my book.
New York Jets
Tevin Coleman (172)
Zach Wilson (195)
This value might be gone as Week 1 approaches because this rookie is seriously flashing in training camp. But as long as his ADP stays in the 150 range, I like Elijah Moore's chances of being the #1 or 2 weapon in this offense. Will that offense be explosive with a rookie QB? Time will tell. But you have to think the Jets will be trailing in a lot of games, so Michael Carter's ADP is a bit rich for me. If I had to choose one of these rookies, I'd go with Moore.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
J.K. Dobbins (25)
Mark Andrews (53)
Gus Edwards (110)
I talked up Lamar Jackson a ton in 2019, but there wasn't much value for him last year going in Round 2 of most fantasy drafts. This year he actually could be back to having some value if he slips into the 5th round. He was great down the stretch in 2020 and was the QB1 the last month of the season. I'm not usually into paying up for a QB, so I doubt I'll get Lamar in many leagues. But his rushing provides a floor that you'll be happy with if your first 4 picks are really solid RBs/WRs.
Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Mixon (21)
Ja'Marr Chase (70)
Tyler Boyd (97)
Joe Burrow (102)
Cleveland Browns
Nick Chubb (6)
Kareem Hunt (47)
Jarvis Landry (104)
I know this is a boring pick, but Hooper was a top-100 preseason pick last year. He had a slow start and proceeded to miss a couple of games due to an appendectomy. Yet he still managed 70 targets and 4 TDs in 13 games (his first season as a Brown). If he plays 17 games this year, he'll likely get around 100 targets. I could easily see him with 750 yards and 5 touchdowns, which would mean he'd likely be a top-12 fantasy tight end.
Ben Roethlisberger (150)
Eric Ebron (212)
Anthony McFarland, Jr. (220)
JuJu was a consensus third round pick last year, and now his ADP is in the 80s. I know people are excited about the younger guys, but JuJu is going to try to secure a bag this year. He signed a one-year deal to play in Pittsburgh this season, with $1 million in base salary and a $7 million signing bonus. Like Will Fuller, I feel like the motivation is there on such a short term deal. While JuJu is still pretty young, wide receivers tend to fall off a cliff around age 30. These guys know this could be their last chance at a big, long-term contract.
AFC South
Houston Texans
David Johnson (82)
Brandin Cooks (105)
Sure, Watson might not play a snap this season. But that was the case for Le'Veon Bell a few years ago and people were still taking him in the first couple of rounds! And then Bell (voluntarily) sat out the entire season. At an ADP of 164, the risk is so low, why wouldn't you take Watson here? I mean, if morally you have an issue, fine. I get that. But otherwise, I'd probably draft him 20-30 spots higher than this as long as it seems like there's a 20ish percent chance he plays this year. I mean, who else are you going to draft from the Texans...?
Indianapolis Colts
Jonathan Taylor (8)
Nyheim Hines (125)
T.Y. Hilton's ADP last year was 63, so he's a value to me now that he's going SO much later. Of course I'd like this spot a lot more if he had Wentz throwing the ball in Week 1, but we really don't know when Wentz will be back. If Wentz doesn't start the year on the PUP list, maybe it'll be sooner than later. Either way, Hilton is a solid WR and a decent value in the mid to late rounds.
Jacksonville Jaguars
James Robinson (50)
D.J. Chark (86)
Trevor Lawrence (128)
Few college QBs get hyped up as much as Trevor Lawrence. The only other guy I can even think of is Andrew Luck. Recent top picks like Joe Burrow and Kyler Murray weren't hyped up nearly as much as Lawrence (nor for as long). People have been saying Trevor Lawrence is a "generational talent" for quite some time. Now in his rookie season with Urban Meyer as the new head coach and weapons all around him, you can get him in the double-digit rounds?!? To me, that's great value.
Tennessee Titans
Derrick Henry (3)
A.J. Brown (24)
Ryan Tannehill (92)
Anthony Firkser (203)
Darrynton Evans (241)
This is honestly one of my favorite values of 2021, especially since Evans is basically undrafted in most leagues. With the NFL adding a game to the season, workload management could be more of a thing across the board. As for Tennessee, they have a new OC, and Derrick Henry's workload has been insanely high the last couple of years. Of course he will get the vast majority of touches in this backfield, but if the Titans manage his workload a bit more this year, Evans is a great value at the very end of drafts.
AFC West
Denver Broncos
Javonte Williams (66)
Courtland Sutton (85)
Jerry Jeudy (89)
I personally have Jerry Jeudy ranked well ahead of Courtland Sutton, so I think he's the value in Denver. Jeudy is younger and has more upside at this point in his career, and I really don't think anyone is going to be the best WR on this squad other than him. This feels like a hill I'm going to die on in 2021. Draft Jerry Jeudy!!!
Kansas City Chiefs
Mecole Hardman (140)
I said the same thing last year in this spot, and I'll say it again. It's hard to find value with a team like this because everyone wants a piece of Kansas City's offense. And I wanted to say CEH is a value now that he's going toward the end of the second round, but I'd rather highlight Mecole Hardman because you can get him MUCH later. Reports out of camp say Hardman is the clear #2 WR in this offense with Sammy Watkins now in Baltimore. Of course he's still behind Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce in the pecking order, but if this offense is scoring 30 points/game, there should be plenty of fantasy points to go around.
Darren Waller (26)
Henry Ruggs III (132)
I didn't really want any part of this offense in 2020, and I kind of feel that way again this year. Sure, I'd probably draft Waller in the third round or so. Maybe Josh Jacobs too. But I'm not super excited about either guy, so I'll say the best value might be Bryan Edwards. A couple of weeks ago, he was basically free in drafts with an ADP near 300. Now it's closer to 200, but I still like him. You'll know in the first couple of weeks just how involved he is (or isn't) in this offense, and he just might have the tools to be the #1 WR on this team.
Los Angeles Chargers
Austin Ekeler (13)
Keenan Allen (29)
Mike Williams (121)
Jared Cook (174)
It's kind of crazy to me that the ADP of Mike Williams is actually worse than it was this time last year, and that was before the emergence of Justin Herbert and the departure of Hunter Henry. If anything, Mike Williams should be nearing a top-100 player, right?! I'm drinking the Mike Williams Kool-Aid this offseason and will gladly draft him in the middle rounds as my third or fourth wide receiver. Justin Herbert looks like an emerging star, so getting Williams as a piece of this offense is a way better value than paying up for Keenan Allen.
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys
Ezekiel Elliott (5)
CeeDee Lamb (37)
Dak Prescott (51)
Tony Pollard (116)
Michael Gallup (127)
Here's another team where it's hard to find value versus ADP because, well, there are a lot of Cowboy fans. OK, so maybe some of it is the high powered offense. And if you want a piece of it at a discount, take Michael Gallup. Of course Lamb is the new hotness and Amari Cooper will get his. But Gallup's ADP a year ago was 72 (before anyone knew what Lamb could do in the NFL). That doesn't mean Gallup is done. You're getting him at a nice discount, and reports from camp make it sound like his route tree is expanding. All three of these WRs could have good value this year, but Gallup is by far the cheapest.
New York Giants
Saquon Barkley (7)
Evan Engram (170)
Sterling Shepard (202)
Daniel Jones (268)
This is a tough call with this team because there's actually a lot of value across the board. Evan Engram's ADP a year ago was 77, and he led the team in targets. I don't expect that to be the case again with a healthy Saquon and Golladay in town. Yes, Kyle Rudolph is a Giant now too. But I still think Engram will likely be a top-12 TE. With an ADP now of 163, that's not a bad way to get a piece of this offense (you know, if you want it).
Philadelphia Eagles
Miles Sanders (36)
Jalen Hurts (81)
Dallas Goedert (88)
Jalen Reagor (234)
I'm not sure there's a ton of value in the top guys on this list, but Kenneth Gainwell feels like a pick where he's going in drafts. Ask yourself this...how sure are you that Miles Sanders will get a big workload in this offense? This time last year, Antonio Gibson was being drafted around this same range. He's now being drafted in the second round. This is the area in drafts where you take a shot, and maybe Gainwell can be another Memphis hybrid back to shine in the NFL.
Washington Football Team
Antonio Gibson (16)
Logan Thomas (90)
I actually thought Fitzpatrick's ADP would be closer to 200, but I still like him as a late round QB this year. I'm hoping he can keep the turnovers down and hold onto the starting gig all year. If he does, I really think you're looking at a top-12 fantasy QB with these weapons.
Justin Fields (154)
Damien Williams (178)
Detroit Lions
D'Andre Swift (34)
Tyrell Williams (293)
I don't think Swift or Hockenson are necessarily values at those ADPs, so I'm going way down to Perriman who I think has as good of a shot as anyone on this team to be the WR1. What does that mean with Goff under center? Well, Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp certainly had some good fantasy seasons with him. Things will certainly be different in Detroit, but if the target tree narrows to mostly Hockenson and Perriman, the latter could be a solid fantasy WR on volume alone. This could age poorly, but I'm not buying the rookie St. Brown at an ADP around 200.
Green Bay Packers
Aaron Jones (9)
Aaron Rodgers (62)
A.J. Dillon (95)
Allen Lazard (231)
Last year I highlighted Lazard in this spot because his ADP was over 200. Here we are a year later, and his ADP is still over 200. He was looking really good last year before dealing with a core injury. The addition of Randall Cobb should devalue him some, but not this much. If he's 100% healthy now, I think Lazard with be the clear #2 WR in this offense.
Dalvin Cook (2)
Adam Thielen (46)
Alexander Mattison (131)
Irv Smith, Jr. (138)
Kirk Cousins (143)
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons
Calvin Ridley (19)
Matt Ryan (126)
Could Javian Hawkins be this year's James Robinson? Maybe. While Mike Davis proved last year in Carolina he could carry the load, Hawkins could be an injury away from being the next man up. And even if Davis stays healthy, Hawkins has shown speed early on in training camp that could give the UDFA some touches on a regular basis. It's basically a free pick this late in your draft, so if there's any buzz at all that Hawkins could be the #2 RB in Atlanta, this is a huge value.
Carolina Panthers
Christian McCaffrey (1)
D.J. Moore (57)
Robby Anderson (83)
If you have an IR spot in your league, Michael Thomas becomes a value at some point, but I'm not sure that's at an ADP in the 60s. He'll be out for several weeks to start the season, so someone will need to catch a few passes. Marquez Callaway has a great shot to emerge as the #1 receiver in this offense for at least the first half of the season. To get that near pick 200 feels like a good value to me.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mike Evans (38)
Leonard Fournette (77)
After dealing with RBs who couldn't catch passes in 2020, I think Bernard was brought in to be Tampa's version of James White. I'll be grabbing Gio toward the end of drafts this year because even with Jones and Fournette getting touches, I think Bernard will be the third down back (and maybe the two minute drill back as well). He'll get plenty of work and will be a good FLEX option in a Bruce Arians offense that has been in the top-5 in each of his first two seasons in Tampa.
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals
DeAndre Hopkins (17)
Kyler Murray (39)
Rondale Moore (201)
When Rondale Moore was drafted by the Cardinals, I literally couldn't think of a better landing spot. I would've preferred if A.J. Green didn't move out to the desert, but do we really expect him to be healthy for more than a few games this year? I think Moore could legit be the #2 receiver on this team by midseason and is well worth a late round flier. By the time you do your draft, I'd expect Moore's ADP to be a lower number than A.J. Green's.
Los Angeles Rams
Robert Woods (43)
Cooper Kupp (49)
George Kittle (27)
Raheem Mostert (67)
Jimmy Garoppolo (292)
I'd love to say either Lance or Jimmy G is a value here, but I just don't know what Kyle Shanahan is going to do. While they might let Trey Lance sit on the sidelines for a bit, I don't think they'll do that with the other Trey. The Niners traded up to get Sermon with the #88 pick in this year's draft, and running backs tend to get worked into the offense right away. This feels like a good value for someone who could be the lead back in a good offense that likes to run the football.
Seattle Seahawks
D.K. Metcalf (20)
Tyler Lockett (54)
Russell Wilson (60)