Last year in January, I sat down to write this super long article for the first time. I'm back at it again, but I'm running late! There's a lot of offseason action already happening, so no more dragging my feet or else I'll run out of predictions to make because they all will have happened.
So what is this article all about? Basically it's a look at a couple of offseason moves each team might make (or at least something that is relevant in fantasy). I don't have any inside information here, so these are mostly just guesses based on my knowledge and tidbits I've picked up here and there. In fact, last year I actually predicted a few things in this article that ending up happening:
Dolphins still drafted Tua at #5 (a lot of people didn't think that would happen with his offseason hip issues)
Chargers drafted Herbert (a lot of people did think this would happen...including me!)
Cardinals traded David Johnson (I didn't think they'd get Hopkins for him, but good for them!)
Titans re-signed both Tannehill AND Henry (this seemed unlikely at one point to sign both)
Bears cut Trey Burton and sign a free agent tight end
Broncos, Eagles, and 49ers all drafted stud WRs in the first round
Bills drafted a running back to complement Singletary with Frank Gore gone (I thought Gore would retire, but he did not...it turns out he never will)
Logan Thomas to Washington!
Of course I made plenty of predictions that didn't happen, but this is a good way to dig into free agents, and I'll also pick a few rookies to go to different teams where I think they could be good fits. But I doubt any of those will be right because, again...it's March 1st.
Since I'm talking about every team, like I said this is a long article. So I've highlighted team headlines in different colors and text in BOLD in case you just want to scan and find my key points/players for each team or just certain teams.
Here we go!
AFC East
The Bills are a really good team without a ton of cap space, and they can likely build around Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs without the high cap hit from John Brown. In addition to Diggs, the Bills will probably go into 2021 with Beasley, Gabriel Davis and Dawson Knox (TE). They might draft a WR at the end of the 3rd round, but the Bills have used that round pick on a RB each of the last two seasons with Singletary and Moss. Will they do it again? T.J. Yeldon actually played a ton in the AFC Championship game against the Chiefs, and Sean McDermott was quoted when asked about offseason improvements as saying "we've got to run the football better." I know that sounds pretty generic, but I'm guessing he wasn't happy with the lack of performance or availability of his young guys. I feel like the Bills will use a 3rd round pick or one of their 5th round picks on the position. Maybe Jaret Patterson from the University of Buffalo could stay put and play for the Bills or Trey Sermon out of Ohio State could be a between-the-tackles RB for this Super Bowl contender.
Miami Dolphins make another super team in South Beach
Thanks to the Texans, Miami has the #3 overall pick in the 2021 draft in addition to the #18 pick. In fact, they have four picks in the top-50 (again, thank you Houston for that high second-rounder). So while it's possible they use one of those top-50 picks on a running back, they actually have a ton of cap room and might try to add a big name via free agency to this backfield. I'd love to see Aaron Jones get out of Green Bay and get the full workhorse role in Miami. The big thing I see happening here though is Miami trading that #3 pick back to Houston along with Tua and maybe even a 2nd rounder next year to get Watson to South Beach. I think the Jets are a smokescreen and Miami is where he'll end up. And can you imagine if they were creative enough to also get someone like Allen Robinson to join forces? Watson/A. Jones/ARob would be like LeBron, D Wade, and Bosh all over again!
New England brings back Jacoby Brissett and drafts Mac Jones
With Tom Brady in Tampa, the Patriots tried the Cam Newton experience in 2020. Yeah that didn't work. I think they might try again with a veteran QB in 2021, but this time it'll be someone familiar to Belichick's system in Jacoby Brissett. The Patriots drafted Brissett in the 3rd round of the 2016 draft, but they turned around and traded him in September of 2017 for WR Phillip Dorsett. Hopefully that's all water under the bridge now, and New England could bring him back now that he's a free agent again. I also think they've probably seen enough of 2019 4th round pick Jarrett Stidham to know they might need to draft another QB this year. They'd likely have to use their 1st round pick to get Mac Jones, and I think they just might.
New York Jets trade Sam Darnold, draft Justin Fields AND Travis Etienne
It's certainly possible the Jets roll with Sam Darnold for one more year, but I think they'll use the #2 pick on a QB. And especially after Fields looked great against Clemson in the national semifinal, he seems like a no-brainer as a top-5 pick this year. The Jets have another first round pick from Seattle in the Jamal Adams trade (#23 overall). Would they take a RB there like Travis Etienne? I think they could. Especially if they get a later but not much later draft pick for Darnold in a trade. I also think they're likely to sign a free agent RB like Mark Ingram to pair with Etienne.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens re-sign the Gus Bus and sign Corey Davis
I'm really interested to see what happens with Matt Judon and Yannick Ngakwoue, but that doesn't mean much for fantasy, now does it? With the Ravens moving on from Mark Ingram, that leaves J.K. Dobbins to ball out in 2021 and to a lesser extent Gus Edwards to continue being a rock solid fantasy RB3. Yes, Edwards is also a (restricted) free agent but I think Baltimore will re-sign him. Don't sleep on the Gus Bus if he's back with the Ravens...
The main thing here is it's clear Lamar needs some help out there. Andrews is a solid tight end, but Hollywood Brown is a field stretcher and not a possession receiver. There are going to be some big names in the WR free agent market this year, but I doubt the Ravens will dish out money to sign a guy like Kenny Golladay or Allen Robinson. I think it's more likely they could sign a guy like Corey Davis if the price is right. That would be big for this offense.
Cincinnati Bengals draft another weapon for Burrow at #5 overall
Joe Burrow should be fully recovered and ready for Week 1 of the 2021 season, and he'll have Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd to throw the ball to. I think A.J. Green will finally be gone, and John Ross too. They'll need to add a WR, so why not draft Ja'Marr Chase to join his old college teammate in Cincy? Sure, the #5 overall pick is high for a wide receiver. But it's not like Chase will be there in Round 2 now, will he?
Cleveland Browns sign a veteran WR and maybe draft a running back (yes, seriously)
The Browns actually don't have a ton of holes on offense, but there are certainly some question marks at the wide receiver position. With OBJ coming off a serious injury and Rashard Higgins likely gone in free agency, Jarvis Landry is the mainstay who Baker can count on in this passing offense. I could see the Browns bringing Breshad Perriman back to Cleveland. I also think it's possible that Nick Chubb is the next big name RB to hold out. Would he do that with Kareem Hunt on the roster? Seems like he wouldn't have a ton of leverage there, but these holdouts happen every year! And if the Browns don't want to pay him, what happens then? Maybe the Browns will use a draft pick on someone like Javonte Williams out of UNC who could be that big back for them in the off chance Chubb holds out.
Pittsburgh Steelers sign Andy Dalton and draft Najee Harris
Ben has hinted that he'll return next year, but his arm looks like it might be done. Pittsburgh needs to plan to move on from him, but they're not going to land one of the top QBs in this draft with a late first round pick. I think that means they might try to sign a free agent quarterback, and Dalton makes a lot of sense to me. He stepped in when Dak went down this year and was a serviceable quarterback. He's always been a serviceable quarterback. The Steelers know what he is because they played against him for years when he was in Cincinnati. With the defense back to full health in 2021, I think this team could compete for a Super Bowl with someone competent under center. Dalton could be good insurance for Ben and could be fine in 2022 if they're in a position to draft a QB then. I also don't think Pittsburgh will bring James Conner back. Benny Snell is fine, and they drafted Anthony MacFarland last year...but I think they'll draft another RB. Najee Harris at the end of the first round could be a great fit in Pittsburgh and would instantly be in the RB1 discussion.
AFC South
Houston Texans cut David Johnson too, draft a running back in the later rounds
The Texans don't have a draft pick in the first two rounds this year due to trades made by B.O.B. (who is no longer there of course). There's a new GM and a new coach in town, so big changes could be coming like I mentioned in my prediction that Watson goes to Miami. I think they'll likely re-sign Will Fuller to a reasonable "prove it" type contract, especially considering the market won't be great with Fuller's PEDs/injury history. But I'm more interested in who this new GM drafts with the 6 picks he has between pick #100-200. That's where the new guy could prove his worth, and I could see a running back picked in the middle rounds there making a difference right away in Houston. They've already cut Duke Johnson, and I think David Johnson could be next to free up even more cap space. That would pave the way for a cheap veteran and/or more importantly a 4th or 5th round rookie RB to be useful right away in fantasy. I'm thinking a guy like Kylin Hill could slip due to his off the field issues, but he'd be a steal in the later rounds and could be a 3-down back in the NFL.
Indianapolis Colts add Zach Ertz to go along with Wentz
The $25 million Philip Rivers experiment was fine, but let's be honest: it didn't really work. I originally thought Stafford might go to Indy, and then I pivoted to predict the Colts would take on Wentz's contract to reunite him with Frank Reich. It just made too much sense, right? Of course in the time it has taken me to write this article, that's already happened. So I'll say Zach Ertz comes along for the ride as well. Does that mean he'll be a top-5 fantasy TE again? Probably not. But top-12? Sure.
Jacksonville Jaguars move up from #21 overall to draft Kyle Pitts
The Jags currently have 11 picks in the 2021 draft, and of course that includes the #1 overall pick. What a great position to be in for Urban Meyer, right? You get Trevor Lawrence to pair with a good, young WR corps. With all of these picks, I think it's possible they trade up from #21 to get a generational talent at the tight end position. They'll try to keep Pitts in the state of Florida and give Trevor another big weapon to throw to. And of course the Jags can't leave a draft without a WR, so I'll say they snag a guy in the 4th round like Sage Surratt or Warren Stewart - guys who will likely fall due to opting out of the 2020 season. One last thing about the Jags because I think they'll be making a lot of changes this offseason: I don't expect James Robinson to be the same workhorse RB in a new offense with likely a new coordinator. I think the Jags will bring in a veteran like Marlon Mack or Wayne Gallman to compete.
Tennessee Titans sign a WR in free agency
Corey Davis is an unrestricted free agent, and the Titans didn't pick up his option so I'm fairly certain he's gone. I think they'll sign someone boring like Marvin Jones or maybe even A.J. Green. Whoever they sign could have fantasy value because Corey Davis would leave a lot of targets behind.
AFC West
Denver Broncos trade for Sam Darnold
Drew Lock ain't it. This team has a stable of great young receivers in Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, and Noah Fant. Tim Patrick and at times KJ Hamler also showed they could produce in this offense, and Daesean Hamilton provides good depth. They don't have an immediate need at receiver, but they DO need someone who can get them the ball. The Broncos aren't a QB away from a Super Bowl, so I think they'll try to trade for someone who is young but still has some potential to be good in this league. I'll say the Broncos trade a 2nd or 3rd round pick for Darnold (who is still on a cheap contract). He just might revitalize his career moving to Denver and finally getting away from Adam Gase. Let's just hope Gase doesn't somehow pop up in Denver too...
Kansas City Chiefs draft a WR in the first two rounds
Just like last year, the Chiefs are a Super Bowl team that doesn't really have any holes (except for maybe O line depth, obviously). They had the luxury of drafting Clyde Edwards-Helaire at the end of Round 1 last year, and I think they'll do the same this year but with the WR position. Of course if there's a huge offensive line value they like at the end of the first round, maybe they wait until Round 2 to grab a WR. But I think they'll do it in Rd 1 and get someone like Kadarius Toney in that spot.
Las Vegas Raiders sign JuJu and draft a RB to complement Josh Jacobs
The Raiders have a history of not only drafting WRs but also adding them in free agency. Last year they drafted both Ruggs and Edwards, and they also signed Nelson Agholor. I think Agholor will be gone, and they've already cut ties with Tyrell Williams. That would leave plenty of cap space to sign a guy like JuJu Smith-Schuster who might just want to make his way back toward the west coast. OK, so Vegas isn't on the coast but he's almost there! And maybe it's the Tik Tok dances or the funny commercials, but JuJu just screams Vegas to me. Also with Jalen Richard to be an unrestricted free agent after next season, it would be smart for the Raiders to draft a guy like Michael Carter out of UNC in the middle rounds. He profiles as a smaller, pass catching RB and could be a good addition to this offense.
Los Angeles Chargers sign Hunter Henry long term, draft another WR, sign Chris Carson
For the second year in a row, there will be a lot to figure out with this team in the offseason. Last year it was Philip Rivers and Melvin Gordon gone. This year it could be Hunter Henry. They slapped the franchise tag on him last year, but now it's time to sign him to a long term deal (I think they will). Melvin Ingram and Mike Pouncey are unrestricted free agents too, though not as important to fantasy of course. The Chargers have a new coach and a promising young QB in Justin Herbert with solid veteran receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. While Allen is locked up long term, Williams is only under contract through 2021, and the same can be said for Tyron Johnson and Jalen Guyton. I think they'll use a higher pick on a WR this year, and I could see someone like Terrace Marshall, Jr. going in the middle of the second round to LA (I assume they'll use their 1st round pick on O line). I think it's also possible with the amount of projected cap space the Chargers will have, they might bring in a big free agent RB like Chris Carson to pair with Ekeler.
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys franchise Dak again but get another receiver (or two) in free agency
I thought the Cowboys would make Dak Prescott a rich man last offseason, but they signed Amari Cooper to a huge deal instead. It's very possible Michael Gallup is gone, so they might draft another WR or even TE (Kyle Pitts at the #10 spot could happen). Maybe they sign a guy like Rashard Higgins to add to Lamb & Cooper, but I think it would be interesting if they sign someone like Jonnu Smith to fill in that Jason Witten role.
New York Giants draft a big time receiver for Daniel Jones to throw to
What the Giants really need to do in this draft is get a guy like Jaylen Waddle in the 1st round. They need to see what Daniel Jones can do with Shepard, Slayton, Engram, and someone like Waddle.
Philadelphia Eagles draft Devonta Smith and sign Todd Gurley
The 2020 WR draft class was amazing, but so far it looks like Philly didn't draft one of the good ones in Jalen Reagor. I think they'll go back to the draft for a WR, and this time they have the #6 overall pick. When are they going to be that high again to get the kind of talent like Devonta Smith? I think they'll pull the trigger on him, and I also have a feeling they'll bring in a veteran RB that'll make everyone worry about the value of Miles Sanders in 2021. Todd Gurley certainly feels like the kind of guy who would do just that.
Washington signs another speedy WR in free agency
I feel like it has been a while since Washington made a big splash in free agency at the RB or WR position. They have a lot of cap space, and I think they could reunite Curtis Samuel with Ron Rivera. He's coming off a semi-breakout year in Carolina, and he's a big time playmaker who could provide even more speed opposite Terry McLaurin. I don't know who the starting QB will be, but this offense could be explosive with Terry, Curtis, and Antonio Gibson. Logan Thomas had a breakout season, but they could still use some help at the TE position as well. I'd love to see them sign a guy like Gerald Everett to add depth at that position.
NFC North
Chicago Bears re-sign Trubisky and sign Kenny Golladay
The Bears moved up one spot from 3 to 2 in the 2017 NFL Draft to make sure they got their guy in Mitch Trubisky. As everyone knows, they drafted him ahead of both Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes who went several picks later in that same draft. So what do they do this offseason with Mitch? I think they might actually re-sign him to a deal that would be friendly to get rid of him in a year or two when they actually address the QB position. And regardless of whether that happens or not, I think Allen Robinson will try to sign with a team where he can finally have a chance to win in the playoffs. With that hole at WR, I could see the Bears signing Kenny Golladay. Kenny G was born and grew up in Chicago and went to Northern Illinois, so maybe he'd like to head back to the Windy City (as long as he gets PAID of course).
Detroit Lions draft an impact WR (not in the first round)
The Goff/Stafford trade seemed to come out of nowhere, so what does Detroit do with that top-10 pick? I think they'd be smart to trade back and get more picks because they need a lot. This team is in full rebuild mode, and I think they'll lose Golladay and Marvin Jones in free agency. Whoever they do bring in at WR could potentially walk right into 100+ targets. I could see them drafting a guy like Marquez Stevenson, and Goff could turn him into a top-30 WR right away with enough targets.
Green Bay Packers finally draft a WR for Rodgers
It was obvious to everyone except the front office in Green Bay last year, but the Packers need another reliable wide receiver other than Devante Adams. The same holds true this year, and I'll double down and say they have to use one of their first three picks at the WR position. Allen Lazard is an exclusive restricted free agent, so Green Bay could bring him back. But Davante Adams is entering a contract year, so Green Bay would be smart to lock him up if they can. If they don't, Davante could be a prime holdout candidate this season. This all tells me they're finally drafting a WR or two this year, and I'll go with Rondale Moore to Green Bay. They may even add someone in free agency. I don't see them making a big splash, but maybe someone like Josh Reynolds or Nelson Agholor.
Minnesota Vikings drafts defense to compete in the NFC North
I know this is a boring take, but I actually think the Vikings need to go heavy on the defensive side of the ball in this draft. I'm also not that interested in anyone they might draft at the WR or RB positions, so there's not a lot to talk about with Minnesota. But if they can improve their defense through the draft and free agency, they could compete with Green Bay for the division next year.
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons draft Zach Wilson and sign Kenyan Drake
The Falcons didn't re-sign Austin Hooper or Devonta Freeman last offseason, and this year I think they'll continue that trend. No, I don't think Matt Ryan or Julio will be gone, but there's no way they bring back Gurley on another one year contract. I think it's more likely they sign someone like Kenyan Drake to a 2 or 3 year contract. I also think it's possible Zach Wilson could be sitting there for Atlanta at the #4 overall pick, and they'd be smart to draft Matt Ryan's replacement with that top-5 pick. Just ask Steeler fans if they wish their team had drafted an actual replacement for Big Ben in one of the last couple of drafts.
Carolina Panthers draft Trey Lance to be the next Cam Newton
I'm doubling down on last year because I said the Panthers would be wise to take a QB in that draft. I thought they might draft Jalen Hurts, which probably would've been a good move in hindsight. Now they have the #8 pick, and if Detroit doesn't take him then I think Carolina should draft Trey Lance here.
New Orleans Saints lose Brees to retirement, but bring back Jameis
They have Taysom Hill under contract, but it sounds like the Saints are planning to sign Jameis to some sort of deal for him to be their QB at least in 2021. I don't really know what they're going to do, but I doubt there will be a huge market for Jameis elsewhere. He'd be smart to stay there with Sean Payton if he has every opportunity to be the starter.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers franchise Godwin and bring in some old Patriots to reunite with Brady
Not many people saw Brady going to Tampa last offseason, but here we are. He signed a two year contract, so you have to think he wants to make one more Super Bowl run (at least, right?). After winning the Super Bowl, I think Antonio Brown would be smart to stick around and try to win another. But AB and "smart" don't usually collide in the same sentence, so who knows what that dude will do. I do think the Bucs would be wise to slap the franchise tag on Godwin, and if AB leaves then maybe Brady tries to recruit Edelman and/or James White to Tampa.
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals let Kenyan Drake walk and sign James Conner
Drake will want to get paid, and I think he'll find the money somewhere like Atlanta. Chase Edmonds is a fine running back, but I think the Cardinals try to bring in a guy like James Conner on the cheap. James Saxon was Conner's RB coach his first couple of years in the league as a Steeler, so he's familiar with him. This could be a good fit and actually retain some fantasy value for Conner in a good offense.
Los Angeles Rams draft a receiver in the 3rd round
The Rams already made a big offseason move with the Goff/Stafford swap, and there's not a whole lot to consider for fantasy outside of that. They don't have a 1st round pick this year due to the Jalen Ramsey trade, but they have two 3rd rounders. Josh Reynolds and Gerald Everett could both be gone in free agency, so they'll need another receiver to add to Kupp, Woods, and Van Jefferson. Whoever they draft likely won't have an instant impact in 2021, but keep an eye on him for dynasty purposes (especially if it's a guy like Rashod Bateman).
San Francisco 49ers land Stephon Gilmore for a draft pick
He's coming off a serious injury, will turn 31 around the start of the 2021 season, and he's entering the final year of a contract. I think it's very possible a team like the Niners would offer a fairly high draft pick for Gilmore because he could be a big piece of what can still be one of the best defenses in the league when everyone is healthy. I know this isn't super relevant for fantasy, but if San Francisco can bolster their defense, they could get back to elite status next season. And yes, the big headline for the Niners could be trading Jimmy G to the Patriots for someone like Gilmore. Sure, that's a possibility. But then who is the QB in San Fran. Cam Newton? Trey Lance? It's March, so anything is possible...
Seattle Seahawks sign a former first round WR free agent for the second year in a row
Last year I ended this article with saying the Seahawks would sign Phillip Dorsett, and they did! This year I'll say that trend continues and they sign John Ross to bring him back to the Pacific NW. Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde are both free agents, so I'll say they go and the Seahawks sign someone like Leonard Fournette to revitalize his career. The guy is still young, and you saw what he could do in the playoffs this year. I don't think Rashaad Penny will be "the guy" for Seattle. They love to run the football, and there will be multiple guys there to get it done.
So how many of those predictions will be right? I'm sure a handful. I mean, some aren't even that bold. It'll be interesting to see as the offseason plays out. The draft is right around the corner!
