Q: Who is this year's Alfred Morris (2012), Zac Stacy (2013), Tre Mason (2014), David Johnson (2015), Jordan Howard (2016), or Alvin Kamara (2017)?
[Description: A rookie NOT taken in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft who is
UNDRAFTED in virtually all fantasy leagues. He's not expected to be the Week 1 starter, but he could really help your fantasy squad by mid-year.]
A: Kalen Ballage
There were 7 RBs drafted in the first 2 rounds this year, so that eliminates a lot of guys from this conversation. But as you can see, this has happened every year since I've been writing about it, so I have to throw a guess out there. Someone already beat me to the punch in projecting Ballage as this year's Kamara, and the article can be found
here. Well, I happen to agree with Mr. Mathyk. While most everyone is expecting Kenyan Drake to take over in Miami, I felt like when they brought in Frank Gore this offseason, that spoke volumes to the contrary. Gore is going to take touches away from Drake and likely vulture a lot of touchdowns. And Kalen Ballage might just have the talent to surpass them
both. Outside of a couple of big games last season, Drake just wasn't that good. And if Gore finally breaks down at the age of 35 and/or the Dolphins struggle out of the gate, I think they could give Ballage a shot to become the guy in Miami. He may not have a clear path right now, but neither did Kamara or any of those other guys I listed all the way back to 2012.
Honorable Mention: Jordan Wilkins
Q: Who is this year's Knowshon Moreno (2013), Mark Ingram (2014), Darren McFadden (2015), or Carlos Hyde (2017)?
[Description: Former early round NFL draft pick, career plagued by injuries, but finally finds himself as the feature running back and scores a TON of fantasy points.]
A: Ameer Abdullah
So here's where I'm giving you a
serious long shot, but Abdullah fits the same mold as guys like Knowshon and McFadden (who were longshots too). Abdullah was a Doak Walker Award finalist in 2014 (top college running back), and that award ended up going to Melvin Gordon. Ameer rushed for over 1600 yards in each of his last two seasons at Nebraska, and he had 22 total touchdowns his senior season. He's obviously had a rough start to his NFL career, which included only playing in 2 games his second year due to injury. Now he finds himself playing on the last year of his rookie contract and likely behind others on the depth chart. The Lions brought in LeGarrette Blount and traded up to draft Kerryon Johnson in the 2nd round, hence why Abdullah is such a long shot to fit this category. But Detroit also revamped their coaching staff, and who knows who they'll feature in the run game this year? Ameer could definitely use an injury to someone else or potentially even a preseason trade to another team, but it's certainly possible he could find his mojo again. The talent is there...somewhere.
Honorable Mention: Doug Martin
Q: Who is this year's Danny Woodhead (2013), Darren Sproles (2014), Danny Woodhead (2015), Theo Riddick (2016), or Chris Thompson (2017)?
[Description: Shifty veteran who
sneakily finishes in the top-20 overall fantasy RBs.]
A: Bilal Powell
Every year one of these little guys finds himself around the top-20. The last couple of years, Riddick and Thompson more or less fit the category if not for injuries. They still finished right there despite missing several games, so we're counting both. Standing at 5' 8" and entering is 7th season in the league, Dion Lewis
almost fit this category. But he's being drafted in the 25-30 range among RBs, so it's not a stretch to say he'll
sneak into the top-20. However, Bilal Powell is currently being drafted as the
#55 RB off the board based on combined ADP from the major fantasy sites. You probably didn't notice, but Powell finished as the #21 RB in standard leagues in 2016, and he was the #26 RB last year. His averages in those two seasons are over 1000 total yards and 5 TDs. Not too shabby! The Jets brought in Isaiah Crowell this offseason, and he'll definitely get a lot of work. But there will be plenty of touches for Powell too, and Elijah McGuire's broken foot only helps Bilal's chances of getting more work early on. Assuming the Jets will be losing in many (if not most) of their games this season, Powell will benefit from that negative gameflow. As a guy who has nearly been a top-20 fantasy RB as recent as two seasons ago, I don't think it's unrealistic to think he could sneak into that territory in 2018.
Honorable Mention: Giovani Bernard
Q: Who is this year's Keenan Allen (2013), Odell Beckham, Jr. (2014), Tyreek Hill (2016), or JuJu Smith-Schuster (2017)?
[Description: Rookie WR with playmaking ability and a solid QB, who is a
late-round fantasy pick or even undrafted in most leagues but ends up being a top-20 fantasy WR.]
A: D.J. Moore
Here's another trend that happens nearly every year, so which rookie fits the profile in 2018? I think it's D.J. Moore. This seems like a no-brainer because he was the first WR selected in this year's draft, right? Well, keep in mind that OBJ was taken even higher in the first round and wasn't getting drafted in fantasy leagues his rookie year (mostly due to a severe hamstring injury that kept him out of the first four games of that rookie season). Moore's ADP has risen from 160 to around 130 in the last couple of months, but that still qualifies him as a late-round pick to undrafted status. The Panthers brought in Norv Turner to run the offense this season, and that makes me think of 2013 when a big time playmaker had a pretty good season under Norv (ahem, Josh Gordon). Now I have no idea if D.J. Moore has half the talent as Gordon, but I think it's possible he has more talent than Funchess or any of the other Panther receivers. Moore didn't have consistency at the QB position while at Maryland, but he has a solid veteran in Cam Newton throwing him the ball now. As long as he can pick up the offense quickly and Norv gets the ball in his hands, Moore will make some plays.
Honorable Mention: Michael Gallup
Q: Who is this year's Andrew Luck (2013), Russell Wilson (2014), Derek Carr (2015), Kirk Cousins (2016), or Carson Wentz (2017)?
[Description: A young starting QB ready to jump to the next fantasy QB tier.]
A: Marcus Mariota
I considered a lot of different quarterbacks in this category. First I thought about Jared Goff, but he was a top-10 fantasy QB last season, and I don't think he makes a leap into the top-5. I also considered Deshaun Watson, but he's already being drafted like a top-5 fantasy QB. Then there are the second year guys Trubisky and Mahomes, but both really have no where to go but up.
Instead, I went slightly off the radar with Marcus Mariota. Everyone was talking him up along with Jameis Winston last preseason, but both finished right around the 20th-best fantasy QB. However, both are still only in their fourth years as starters, and both could make a leap into that QB1 territory this year. But with Winston serving a 3 game suspension to start the year, my money is on Mariota. His new offensive coordinator worked under Sean McVay and made Jared Goff and that offense really click last year. In fact, in addition to Goff, other QBs like RGIII and Matt Ryan also had career best seasons under new OC Matt LeFleur. Could he get similar results with Mariota in Tennessee? Well, Marcus was a top-12 fantasy QB in 2016, so what would a career year look like for him? I'd say 3500 passing yards, 350 rushing yards, and 30 total TDs. Those are basically Dak Prescott's numbers last year, and he finished as the #11 fantasy QB (right behind Jared Goff). I think Mariota could find himself in the top-10 this season if LeFleur sparks some life into this offense.
Honorable Mention: Jimmy Garoppolo
Q: Who is this year's Cam Newton & Andy Dalton (2013-2014), Ben Roethlisberger (2014-2015), Carson Palmer & Cam Newton (2015-2016), or Matt Ryan (2016-2017)?
[Description: A top-5 fantasy QB who finishes outside of the top-15 the following year, and not due to a serious injury that season.]
A: Carson Wentz
There's a trend in the list above, and if it holds true, it could mean Cam Newton is due for another fall from grace this year. But I'm not buying that. I warned you last year about Matty Ice, and I'm warning you this year about...Carson Wentz?!? That's right. You thought I would go with the obvious answer in Alex Smith, but I'm not. I actually think Smith has a good chance to finish inside the top-15 again (definitely not top-5), but I have real concerns about Wentz. Keep in mind last year Matt Ryan lost his offensive coordinator, and Wentz lost his this offseason. Carson is also coming back from a serious knee injury, and the Eagles have every reason not to rush him back. They kept Nick Foles for a reason, and I think he'll be the starter Week 1. I don't think we'll have an Andrew Luck situation like last year, but I do think it's possible that Wentz doesn't see game action until Week 4 or 5. And If Wentz misses a handful of games, it'll be that much harder for him to finish as a top-15 fantasy QB this season.
If you look at Big Ben's top-5 finish in 2014, part of the reason he finished well outside of the top-15 the following year was due to missing 4 games. Tom Brady almost fit this category from 2015-2016 because he started 2016 with the 4 game deflategate suspension. He finished right at #15 on the season, so he'll stay off this list, but he was
damn close. All of that being said, it doesn't mean Wentz won't be a top-10 fantasy QB in the games he
does play this season. I'm just a little concerned his season might not start until October.
Honorable Mention: Alex Smith
Q: Who is this year's Joique Bell (2013), Giovani Bernard (2014), Devonta Freeman (2015), Tevin Coleman (2016), or Alex Collins (2017)?
[Description: A second year running back (mid to late-round draft pick) who is likely the #2 in a timeshare situation but will still find himself as a top-20 fantasy RB in 2017.]
A: Tarik Cohen
Hey look - another trend that happens every year! So which second year RB will finish in the top-20? Well, the Green Bay backfield is as clear as mud, so I'm staying away from Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams. D'Onta Foreman would be a good choice if he was 100% healthy, but he looks like he could start the season on the PUP list. Then there're Tarik Cohen, who is drawing comparisons to Tyreek Hill (head slowly turns...). And it makes sense because Cohen's new head coach did wonders for Tyreek in KC. Why couldn't Cohen get more touches this year and break off a bunch of big plays?! I don't see why he couldn't. I'm hoping Jordan Howard still has the main role in this offense because he's one of my keepers in my money league, but all signs point to the possibility of Tarik being the new
Tyreek in 2018.
Honorable Mention: Aaron Jones
Q: Who is this year's Julius Thomas (2013), Antonio Gates (2014), Gary Barnidge (2015), Kyle Rudolph (2016), or Evan Engram (2017)?
[Description: A tight end who is virtually
undrafted in fantasy leagues and ends up being a top-5 TE.]
A: Hayden Hurst
I know it's hard to believe (outside of Barnidge) that all of those tight ends went undrafted in fantasy leagues during their top-5 seasons, but they all did. This year I considered going back to the well and picking Austin Sefarian-Jenkins again (he was my pick last year), but I wanted to pick someone different. I also considered George Kittle in this spot, but he's in most people's top-12 to 15, so he's
not a sleeper. So what's the benchmark for this impossible-to-predict top-5 TE out of nowhere? Depending on the year, I'd say around 800 yards and 8 touchdowns. Who can hit those numbers? Ben Watson nearly did it with New Orleans in 2015, but he's like 100 in NFL years and I don't trust him to stay healthy. Could Charles Clay set a career high for TDs and end up in the top-5? It's possible (considering Buffalo's lack of receiving options), but I'm not going to count on it (considering Buffalo's QB options).
I'm going to say a rookie fits this category for the second year in a row. And while the Mike Gesicki hype train is gaining steam in Miami, I'll say it's Hayden Hurst instead. Sure, Baltimore hasn't produced a top-10 fantasy TE since Dennis Pitta finished 7th in 2012, but Joe Flacco LOVES throwing to his tight ends. Guys like Dallas Clark and Owen Daniels just weren't great options for Joe, but first round pick Hayden Hurst is a nice target. He's actually an old rookie at the age of 25 (his birthday is August 24th, so he's
almost 25...I'm rounding up). I think that maturity only helps his chances of starting immediately. He didn't put up monster stats in college, but that doesn't mean he won't get heavily involved in this offense right away. In fact, he caught a touchdown pass in the Hall of Fame Game, so I'd say he's already off to a good start.
Honorable Mention: Charles Clay
Q: Who are this year's "guys I probably won't be drafting on my fantasy teams"?
[Description: A list of players who for one reason or another likely won't end up on my rosters.]
1. Aaron Rodgers: I'm not going to draft a QB in the first two rounds, and someone else probably will. I absolutely think Rodgers will finish as a top-5 fantasy QB. I'm just not willing to draft him before I get a couple of RBs and a WR on my squad.
2. Allen Robinson: He's being valued as a top-10 to 15 WR right now, and I have him more in the 20-25 range. There's no way he makes it on my fantasy team this season, unless it's via a trade later on.
3. Tyreek Hill: He has a new QB and OC, and he now has Sammy Watkins to share targets with in addition to Kelce and Kareem Hunt. He has great playmaking ability, but I don't think he'll be anywhere near a top-12 WR this season.
4. Evan Engram: If I don't get Gronk, Ertz, or Kelce, I'm probably going to wait a while on TE. Others may do the same, but I think someone else will jump on Engram way earlier than I will based on his rookie season stats. I think that's a mistake. With more of a focus on the running game (Saquon) and OBJ/Shepard both healthy, I expect Engram's targets to go
way down.
5. Jimmy Garoppolo: Why does everyone have him as a top-10 fantasy QB this year?!? I understand he finished strong last year and won every game he started for the 49ers. But take a look at his
stats! While he
did average over 300 passing yards in those 5 games, he also only averaged 1.4 TDs and 1 INT. If you extrapolate those stats over 16 games, he easily finishes outside of the top-12. I understand the upside, but put me down for guys like Stafford or Rivers over Jimmy G all day.
6. DeSean Jackson: The bonehead speedster is way over the hill, but he's still being ranked in the top-100 fantasy players for most experts. Not me though. Mike Evans and Ronald Jones are just about the only Bucs I'd draft right now, and I'd draft Godwin over DeSean in a deep league.
7. Martavis Bryant: He's in the top-150 for most, but I'm having a hard time buying into a guy who is one mistake away from a lifetime ban from the NFL. The same could be said for Josh Gordon I suppose, but he has
way more upside and is likely the #1 option for the Browns. Martavis is the third option at best and more realistically the 5th or so option after Marshawn, Cooper, Jordy, and even Jared Cook! No thanks.
8. Any Jags WR (probably): With Allen Robinson now in Chicago and Allen Hurns in Dallas, the Jaguars have a ton of guys competing for targets. They paid Marqise Lee a lot of money to stick around, so I assume he'll be the #1 guy and I'd consider drafting him in the middle to late rounds. But after that, these other guys are all on rookie or short term contracts: Dede Westbrook, Donte Moncrief, Keelan Cole, and D.J. Chark just to name a few. Oh, and there's Austin Seferian-Jenkins to suck up targets from the tight end position. Good luck figuring out who will score fantasy points in this offense other than Leonard Fournette. After Marqise Lee, the only other guy who is kind of intriguing to me is Keelan Cole, but there are just too many options here. I'm likely not hanging my hat on any of those guys.
9. Seattle Defense: No Richard Sherman. No Kam Chancellor. Earl Thomas wants out. The Legion of Boom is done. This is a defense that is going to give up a lot more points this season, and their schedule isn't very forgiving. I think they'll finish in the bottom-10 rather than top-10 fantasy defenses this year.
10. Any kicker whatsoever: My money league voted to get rid of kickers this season, so I don't have to draft one! I'm so excited!!!
.......
Before the first game of the NFL season, I like to take a few minutes to do my own simulation of every game on the schedule and use that to predict division winners, conference champs, and who's taking home the Lombardi trophy.
Here's what Bart's prediction machine spat out this season...
| AFC East |
|
AFC North |
|
AFC South |
|
AFC West |
|
| NE | 12-4 |
CIN |
4-12 | HOU | 10-6 |
KC |
8-8 |
| BUF |
5-11 |
PIT | 12-4 |
IND |
7-9 |
DEN | 10-6 |
| NYJ |
5-11 |
BAL |
8-8 | JAX | 9-7 |
OAK |
7-9 |
| MIA |
3-13 |
CLE |
5-11 |
TEN |
8-8 | LAC | 9-7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| NFC East |
|
NFC North |
|
NFC South |
|
NFC West |
|
| WAS |
7-9 |
GB | 10-6 |
CAR |
8-8 |
ARI |
8-8 |
| NYG |
8-8 |
MIN | 10-6 |
NO | 9-7 |
SEA |
7-9 |
| DAL |
8-8 | DET | 10-6 | ATL | 9-7 |
LAR | 10-6 |
| PHI | 10-6 |
CHI |
7-9 |
TB |
6-10 |
SF |
8-8 |
Here is some commentary on my predicted standings and one
BOLD prediction for each division.
AFC East
Prediction: The Patriots easily win the division again (BOOOORING!), and the other teams all compete for the #1 pick in next year's draft.
BOLD Prediction: The Dolphins, Bills, and Jets fail to
combine for more wins than the Patriots.
AFC North
Prediction: The Steelers are the only team out of the North to make the playoffs. Sorry, Baltimore.
BOLD Prediction: Last year I said the Bengals would miss the playoffs for the second year in a row (I was right), and Marvin Lewis would lose his job after 15 seasons and zero playoff wins (I was wrong). This year I think the Bengals will finish last in the division (NOT Cleveland). As for whether or not Marvin Lewis keeps his job? Who knows with this team?!?
AFC South
Prediction: The Jags will regress slightly, and part of that will be due to Indy and Houston being better. In fact, I think Watson will lead the Texans to the division title, and Jacksonville will get a wild card. These two teams play each other in Week 17, and I hope that game decides the division.
BOLD Prediction: All 4 QBs in this division will finish the season in the top-15 in fantasy.
AFC West
Prediction: Denver goes from last to first in the division, clinching it with a win over the Chargers in Week 17. However, the Bolts still secure the second wild card spot with 9 wins and a tiebreaker over the Chiefs.
BOLD Prediction: Mahomes is good but not great, and Travis Kelce finishes outside of the top-5 fantasy tight ends.
NFC East
Prediction: I was so wrong about the Giants last year, but I do think they'll be better this season. Most of this division will be pretty average though, and the Eagles will win the NFC East again.
BOLD prediction: Ezekiel Elliot rushes for over 2000 yards.
NFC North
Prediction: I think this is going to be the best division in football this year, and the Vikings will win the North while the Bears continue to improve.
BOLD Prediction: Like the NFC South last year, three teams will make the playoffs in this division.
NFC South
Prediction: This division had three teams with 10 or more wins last year, but I don't see that happening again. In fact, I think just the Falcons make the playoffs out of the NFC South in 2018.
BOLD Prediction: The Saints defense/special teams finishes as a top-5 fantasy unit, but they don't make the playoffs. I know, that seems impossible. That's why it's a BOLD prediction!
NFC West
Prediction: The Rams will continue to do well in this division, and I think the 49ers will finish 2nd but miss the playoffs. This feels like a one bid division...at least for another year.
BOLD Prediction: In what is thought to be one of the best home field advantages in professional sports, the Seahawks will finish with a losing record at CenturyLink Field.
Here's what I predict for 2018:
AFC East: New England Patriots
AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers
AFC South: Houston Texans
AFC West: Denver Broncos
AFC Wild Card1: Jacksonville Jaguars
AFC Wild Card2: LA Chargers
[Patriots over Steelers in AFC Championship Game]
NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles
NFC North: Minnesota Vikings
NFC South: Atlanta Falcons
NFC West: LA Rams
NFC Wild Card1: Green Bay Packers
NFC Wild Card2: Detroit Lions
[Rams over Falcons in NFC Championship Game]
Super Bowl Prediction: Patriots over Rams
And don't let the internet fool you. For every tweet at this young man saying "You suck!" or "You ruined my fantasy team!!", there are 10 more that are positive and wishing him the best. So don't assume everyone is a troll just because a few make the most noise. I tend to believe the vast majority of people who pay attention to football would feel bad for Guice and hope he gets back on the field next year. I even saw plenty of tweets that were apparently from other NFC East fans genuinely feeling bad for the guy. And that's the reaction you should have.
