Way Too Early 2017 Fantasy Football Rankings

If you read my blog last week, you may recall I said that Week 17 can be tricky to pick versus the spread with certain teams resting starters, some playing for nothing, etc.  Well, it turns out that for me, Week 17 was the easiest to pick yet!  I went 11-5 and 3-0 with my LOCKS!  Sadly, one of my locks was the Giants.  I knew they weren't resting any of their starters and would love to play spoiler to my Redskins.  They did exactly that and won outright to keep Washington out of the playoffs. :(

Anyway, here are the rest of my picks from last week, and below that are my results since I started picking games against the spread in Week 12.

Week 17 picks: 11-5

BAL @ CIN (BAL +1)

HOU @ TEN (TEN -3)
CAR @ TB (CAR +6.5)
JAC @ IND (IND -4.5)
NE @ MIA (MIA +10.5)
CHI @ MIN (MIN -5)
BUF @ NYJ (NYJ +5.5)
DAL @ PHI (PHI -3.5)
CLE @ PIT (CLE +6.5)
NO @ ATL (NO +7)
NYG @ WAS (NYG +8) LOCK
ARI @ LA (ARI -6)
OAK @ DEN (OAK +1.5)
KC @ SD (KC -4.5) LOCK
SEA @ SF (SEA -9.5)
GB @ DET (GB -3.5) LOCK

Overall Record: 54-41 (LOCKS: 8-1)
Week 12: 9-7
Week 13: 8-7
Week 14: 9-7
Week 15: 8-8   (LOCKS: 2-1)
Week 16: 9-7   (LOCKS: 3-0)
Week 17: 11-5 (LOCKS: 3-0)

If I keep up with my rankings in 2017, I'll definitely add picking versus the spread to the end of the blog.  I mean, I should at least do the 3 locks each week, right?



Speaking of 2017, it's never too early to start thinking about next year, so I thought I'd get a head start with my "WAY TOO EARLY" rankings below.  Rather than short blurbs next to each player, I broke out each chunk of rankings like a round in a mock draft and have a few comments to help explain my rankings of certain players after each group of 12.

You'll also notice that several of those players I highlighted in bold are rookies.  None of the experts who put together early rankings have rookies on their big boards.  What's up with that?  You know Leonard Fournette and Dalvin Cook are going to be in the top-100 next year.  You know this!  So why not rank them?!?  I don't get it.  Well, I have rookies in my early rankings, dammit!

Of course a lot will change in the months to come, but this will be a good jumping off point for when I update my rankings later in the year.

Feel free to let me know what you think I got right/wrong in the comments section!

Cheers,
Bart

1. Le'Veon Bell

2. David Johnson

3. Ezekiel Elliott

4. Antonio Brown

5. Odell Beckham, Jr.

6. Mike Evans

7. Julio Jones

8. LeSean McCoy

9. Jay Ajayi

10. Jordan Howard

11. DeMarco Murray

12. Devonta Freeman I feel like my top-3 could easily be shuffled in any order, and I'm sure all of the fantasy experts will enjoy debating who the #1 pick should be next year.  Here's the thing.  It's hard to go wrong picking one of these running backs, aside from injury or Le'Veon getting caught smoking weed again.  So don't overthink it if you have a top-3 pick in 2017.  Just go with your gut and grab one of these guys. After the big 3, there's an elite group of WRs that are just as difficult to put in any kind of order.  Again, tough to go wrong picking someone like Antonio Brown or Julio Jones in the first round.  On a personal note, I hope I'm right in ranking Jordan Howard this highly. He's my #1 keeper option for next year, so I'm looking for the good times to keep on rolling with him in 2017. 13. AJ Green

14. Jordy Nelson

15. TY Hilton

16. Dez Bryant

17. Michael Thomas

18. Melvin Gordon

19. Lamar Miller

20. Todd Gurley

21. Carlos Hyde

22. Mark Ingram

23. Aaron Rodgers

24. Rob Gronkowski In case you didn't notice, Michael Thomas put up top-10 fantasy numbers as a rookie.  That also included a goose egg against Denver (not surprising) and another zero when he missed Week 14.  A top-5 sophomore year doesn't seem unrealistic, especially if the Brandin Cooks trade rumors come to fruition.  As for the running backs, I could possibly see Melvin Gordon jump into the 1st round, but a healthy Danny Woodhead will eat into some of his every down back duties he had this year.  Keep in mind that Woodhead was a top-12 fantasy RB himself in 2015 (Gordon's rookie year). After nearly 2 full rounds of RBs and WRs, it finally felt OK to rank Aaron Rodgers and Gronk.  As weird as it is seeing Gronk at the end of this round, his injury concerns make it tough to continue ranking him as a first rounder.  As for Rodgers, the quarterback position has become so deep in fantasy that it's hard to justify taking him with a top pick.  I got burned keeping Russell Wilson this season, and the perennial top-5 fantasy QB finished outside of the top-15 fantasy QBs with other guys like Cam and Big Ben.  I'll have Brees and Brady a couple of rounds later, but more and more I think I'm waiting on QB in 2017.

25. Amari Cooper

26. Brandin Cooks

27. Davante Adams

28. DeAndre Hopkins

29. Alshon Jeffery

30. Allen Robinson

31. Leonard Fournette (R)

32. Rob Kelley

33. Eddie Lacy

34. Latavius Murray

35. Jeremy Hill

36. Dalvin Cook (R) Another top-10 fantasy WR in 2016 who may have been a little under the radar this season was Davante Adams.  Even though many of his big games were dependent on scoring TDs, he seems to belong up here with guys like Cooper and Cooks for me.  Let's just hope he's not the 2017 version of Allen Hurns.  Of course Aaron Rodgers isn't exactly Blake Bortles... As for DeAndre Hopkins and Allen Robinson, they were both fantasy studs in 2015 but didn't do much this season.  However, both were still top-10 in targets and could be solid rebound candidates for 2017.  Alshon Jeffery is someone to keep an eye on because I think he'll end up in a different city in 2017.  I'll probably need to adjust his ranking depending on his landing spot. You'll also notice a couple of rookie RBs in this round.  I'm in a keeper league, and you can't keep anyone drafted in the first 2 rounds.  This being Round 3 (ish, depending on which keepers come off the list), I think Leonard Fournette and Dalvin Cook are both likely to get drafted.  Of course, both will need to land in decent spots to actually have some fantasy relevance in 2017, but I think it could happen for both of them.  With Isaiah Crowell being a free agent, I think the Browns let him go and draft Fournette with the #12 overall pick they got from Philly.  Everyone expects them to take another QB there, but I think they'll copy Dallas and go RB.  And I like Dalvin Cook to land somewhere like Carolina or Indy, where he can complement a Frank Gore or Jonathan Stewart (and ultimately become the lead back in either location).

37. Michael Crabtree

38. Demaryius Thomas

40. Doug Baldwin

41. Drew Brees

42. Tom Brady

43. Spencer Ware

44. LeGarrette Blount

45. CJ Anderson

46. Tevin Coleman

47. Travis Kelce

48. Jordan Reed   If you're surprised to see Spencer Ware this high, just know that I'm ranking him like either Jamaal Charles won't be a Chief next season or Ware is the starter anyway.  You also may be thinking that LeGarrette Blount doesn't belong in the 4th Round, but this is assuming he's back in a Patriot uniform.  If he lands elsewhere, I'll likely drop him several rounds.  But if he's in New England, I don't see why he wouldn't have 10+ rushing TDs again in that offense (probably not 18 though). It also felt about the right time to rank a couple more TEs.  Jordan Reed and Travis Kelce were both on my fantasy team this season, so I'm very familiar with their production.  Kelce is more of a lock to play 16 games, but his usage some weeks can be downright frustrating.  I think Reed has more upside for big games every time he suits up, but that's the catch because he seems to be banged up more often than not.

49. Adrian Peterson

50. Doug Martin

51. Thomas Rawls

52. Jonathan Stewart

53. Frank Gore

54. Matt Forte

55. Sammy Watkins

56. Keenan Allen

57. Emmanuel Sanders

58. Jarvis Landry

59. Kelvin Benjamin

60. Golden Tate Adrian Peterson feels like a BIG question mark for next season.  Will he be healthy?  Will he be a Viking?  His ranking could fluctuate a lot between now and August.  The same goes for Doug Martin, who will have to sit out the first 3 games of 2017 due to suspension.  That lowered him quite a bit for me, and I think it's very possible the Bucs draft a RB who could start 2017 splitting carries with Charles Sims.  If that's the case, Martin will likely free fall down my rankings. Sammy Watkins feels a bit low outside of my top-50, but he can't seem to stay on the field lately with that foot issue.  Depending on his health leading into the 2017 season, he may move up or down from Round 5.  The same goes for Keenan Allen, who has a lot of potential but hasn't been healthy since 2014.  He also has yet to reproduce a season anywhere near his rookie year.  I ranked him above Tyrell Williams for now, but that may change as we get closer to training camps and preseason games.  Tyrell was impressive in the second half of 2016, and it'll be interesting to see how both look in the preseason.

61. Andrew Luck

62. Matt Ryan

63. Ameer Abdullah

64. Kenneth Dixon

65. Paul Perkins

66. C.J. Prosise

67. Julian Edelman

68. Terrelle Pryor, Sr.

69. Larry Fitzgerald

70. Tyreek Hill

71. Mike Williams (R)

72. Corey Davis (R)  This round has a handful of young running backs primed to take over lead back duties next season.  First among them is Abdullah, who started 2016 off with a bang before landing on the IR.  The former 2nd round draft pick could be a nice post-hype sleeper.  Kenneth Dixon got more involved with Baltimore's offense as the season went on, and I could definitely see him getting the majority of the work in 2017.  You may be thinking this is WAY too low for Tyreek Hill, who was a second half stud and won people some fantasy championships.  But teams are going to stop punting to him, and unless Kansas City gets him more involved in the offense, he just doesn't get the touches to have that consistency you want in a WR1 or even WR2.  I just don't see him as a top-12 fantasy WR again next season.  Not even close.  But if you're able to draft him around pick #70, he'll probably look really nice in your FLEX spot. Speaking of young wideouts, two rookie WRs end up in this round for me.  Of course a lot will depend on which team drafts each of them as to whether they move up or down from here, but this seemed like a decent spot to rank them for now.

73. Russell Wilson

74. Derek Carr

75. Dak Prescott

76. Cam Newton

77. Kirk Cousins

78. Derrick Henry

79. Isaiah Crowell

80. Dion Lewis

81. Ryan Mathews

82. Bilal Powell

83. Theo Riddick

84. Jerick McKinnon It may be even sooner, but this feels like where there will be a big run on QBs in fantasy drafts next year.  I think once Andrew Luck comes off the board, you'll start seeing everyone else grabbing a starting QB for their squad.  And the good news is, there's plenty of depth at the position.  All 5 of the QBs I have ranked in this round could easily be top-5 fantasy QBs in 2017.  And the same could be said for the few I have ranked a couple rounds later! If the Patriots let LeGarrette Blount walk, keep an eye on Dion Lewis.  He would climb my rankings if such a scenario played out because it could mean a return to his 2015 form.  It's also possible I have Bilal Powell way too low here, but I don't see him overtaking a healthy Matt Forte.  I just don't.

85. Jamaal Charles

86. Giovani Bernard

87. Danny Woodhead

88. Donte Moncrief

89. Jamison Crowder

90. Rishard Matthews

91. Tyrell Williams

92. DeVante Parker

93. Eric Decker

94. Kenny Britt

95. Brandon Marshall

96. J.J. Nelson   This round includes a few running backs who have had recent injuries that will make them difficult to rank/draft in 2017.  They're followed by a tier of WRs that includes my man Jamison Crowder, who could end up being Kirk's top receiver in 2017.  DeSean and Garcon are both free agents, and I expect Washington to let both of them go (especially if Josh Doctson gets himself healthy).  Of course there are rumors right now that the Redskins have interest in free agent Kenny Britt, which could shake this round up even more.  Britt had the best year of his career, and if he could land somewhere like Washington, he could go from irrelevancy to a WR2 like THAT (*snaps fingers*). Another name that could have serious value as we get into these later rounds is J.J. Nelson.  If the Cardinals don't try to improve their receiving corps in the draft, J.J. could be the clear #2 WR for Arizona next year.  John Brown is dealing with a health issue (sickle cell), and the Cardinals cut Michael Floyd after his DUI arrest.  Nelson had a touchdown in 4 of his last 5 games of the season, and he averaged 10 targets/game in his last 3.  A year 3 breakout doesn't just seems possible but likely for this guy.

97. Marcus Mariota

98. Matthew Stafford

99. Jameis Winston

100. Ben Roethlisberger

101. Greg Olsen

102. Tyler Eifert

103. Jimmy Graham

104. Delanie Walker

105. Christian McCaffery (R)

106. Charles Sims

107. Duke Johnson

108. T.J. Yeldon Let's throw in a few more tight ends, shall we?  After Gronk, Reed, and Kelce, this group is full of guys who could all be top-5 fantasy TEs in 2017.  I think Eifert has the biggest potential to be the #1 fantasy TE if he can stay healthy, so he's a nice value pick if you can get him this late in a draft.  But that's a big "IF" for a guy who has only played about half of his games through 4 seasons in the NFL.  I highlighted Christian McCaffery here because he seems like such a wild card in the draft.  But couldn't you just see the Patriots drafting him and using him as a wide receiver...?

109. Cameron Meredith

110. Stefon Diggs

111. Mike Wallace

112. Sterling Shepard

113. Martavis Bryant

114. John Ross (R)

115. Breshad Perriman

116. Corey Coleman

117. Kevin White

118. Josh Doctson

119. Marqise Lee

120. Tyler Lockett  This round is full of WRs with breakout potential, and I feel like I could have highlighted the entire round! I've already mentioned how I think Alshon is likely to not be a Bear in 2017, and Kevin White can't stay healthy for more than 5 minutes.  That could leave Cameron Meredith as the top WR left in Chicago.  Of course, he'll need someone to get the ball to him, and that's kind of a question mark at the moment... One name you didn't see this season was Martavis Bryant, who served a suspension for smoking weed.  If he's reinstated and can lay off the ganja, we could be looking at a top-10 fantasy WR buried here in the later rounds.  Of course those are big "IFs". John Ross is skipping his senior season to enter the draft, but where will the Huskie land?  This is obviously the theme of all of the rookies I'm ranking, and their fantasy potential won't be fully understood until after the NFL draft concludes at the end of April.

121. Chris Ivory

122. Terrance West

123. Rashad Jennings

124. Darren Sproles

125. Kyle Rudolph

126. Cameron Brate

127. Jeremy Maclin

128. DeSean Jackson

129. Marvin Jones

130. Chiefs DEFENSE

131. Seahawks DEFENSE

132. Broncos DEFENSE I'm not super excited about anyone in this round, but you'll notice I actually ranked 3 defenses slightly ahead of the rest here.  I have no problem streaming defenses, as I find it pretty easy every week to play the matchups and get good production from a defense on the waiver wire.  But if I were to draft a defense before the second to last round, I might reach for one of these three.

133. Philip Rivers

134. Tyrod Taylor

135. Andy Dalton

136. Zach Ertz

137. Eric Ebron

138. Hunter Henry

139. Randall Cobb

140. Malcolm Mitchell

141. Kenny Stills

142. Cole Beasley

143. Taylor Gabriel

144. Adam Thielen Here we are in the 12th round of a 12-team fantasy draft, and you could potentially get Philip Rivers as your starting QB?  We're talking about a top-12 fantasy QB each of the last three seasons (maybe more, but that's as far back as my research goes!).  That's how deep the QB position has become.  It's time to WAIT ON QB! Keep an eye out for where Kenny Stills lands in free agency.  This is a guy who quietly had 9 receiving TDs this year, which included a score in each of his last 4 games.  If he gets a better QB throwing to him in 2017, he may need to move up my rankings.

145. Mike Gillislee

146. Jalen Richard

147. Devontae Booker

148. Joe Mixon (R)

149. Jacquizz Rodgers

150. Ty Montgomery

151. Tim Hightower

152. Chris Thompson

153. Michael Floyd

154. Jordan Matthews

155. Will Fuller

156. Tyler Boyd   This round is full of random RBs and WRs that I just had a hard time ranking any higher than this right now.  Jacquizz Rodgers could potentially start 2017 as Tampa Bay's starting running back.  And who knows?  Maybe Ty Montgomery will too if Eddie Lacy's not healthy enough to return to action.  You just never know... Joe Mixon declared early for the NFL draft, but will a team draft him after his Ray Rice-like video?  My guess is "yes" based on his performance in the Sugar Bowl, but time will tell.  He has a lot of talent and could certainly be worth a late round flier in fantasy drafts, as long as he's on a team fighting for a #2 or 3 RB spot somewhere. Speaking of character issues, Michael Floyd is an interesting guy to watch in the offseason.  He still has the potential to be a good receiver in this league, but he has a lot of question marks surrounding him right now. It may be strange seeing Jordan Matthews ranked this low, but I have a hard time with him any higher than this.  I think the Eagles will address the WR position in the draft and/or free agency to give Wentz someone who can actually catch the football.  As a result, I'm not so sure Matthews is the default #1 WR for the Eagles next season.

157. Blake Bortles

158. Eli Manning

159. Joe Flacco

160. Zach Miller

161. Ladarius Green

162. Martellus Bennett

163. Wendell Smallwood

164. DeAndre Washington

165. Kenyan Drake

166. Devin Funchess

167. Tajae Sharpe

168. Laquon Treadwell  It wasn't always pretty, but after his top-5 fantasy performance in 2015, Blake Bortles actually ended up as a top-12 fantasy QB in 2016.  The Jags will continue to play from behind in games, and Bortles will probably continue to get you those garbage time fantasy points as a result.  Just don't watch the games and you'll be fine. Assuming Ted Ginn leaves Carolina via free agency, Devin Funchess becomes an interesting name for a potential 3rd year WR breakout candidate.  This might be way too low for him if he's the clear #2 for the Panthers entering the 2017 season. 169. Andre Ellington 170. Rex Burkhead 171. Justin Forsett 172. Cardinals DEFENSE 173. Patriots DEFENSE 174. Giants DEFENSE   175. Vikings DEFENSE      176. Panthers DEFENSE  177. Ravens DEFENSE 178. Texans DEFENSE 179. Bengals DEFENSE 180. Packers DEFENSE If you're still reading this, you're probably scratching your head with these 3 RBs I've chosen to rank before the rest of my defenses.  Well, all three of these guys are likely to be with different teams in 2017.  Forsett probably has the least chance at even being a #2 RB somewhere seeing as how he's on the wrong side of 30, but we'll see if any of these guys are worth ranking when training camps start. 181. Justin Tucker  182. Stephen Gostkowski 183. Steven Hauschka  184. Dan Bailey 185. Matt Bryant 186. Cairo Santos 187. Matt Prater 188. Sebastian Janikowski 189. Brandon McManus 190. Adam Vinatieri 191. Mason Crosby 192. Graham Gano

Please wait until the last round to draft a kicker.  Or better yet, eliminate them from your league entirely... But if you have kickers in your league, and you're forced to draft one, draft Justin Tucker.  The Ravens have a hard time scoring touchdowns.  Their defense is solid.  Oh, and Tucker can split the uprights from anywhere on the field.

Here are a few more players I'll likely consider ranking at each position later this year: QBs Deshaun Watson (R) Mitch Trubisky (R) DeShone Kizer (R) Carson Palmer Tony Romo Jay Cutler Colin Kaepernick Jimmy Garoppolo RBs Alex Collins James White Zach Zenner Dwayne Washington Charcandrick West Alfred Morris Darren McFadden DeAngelo Williams Matt Asiata Cameron Artis-Payne Matt Jones James Starks Christine Michael Jeremy Langford Tyler Ervin Robert Turbin Royce Freeman (R) Jeremy McNichols (R) Samaje Perine (R) D'Onta Foreman (R) Wayne Gallman (R) Corey Clement (R) WRs Pierre Garcon Robert Woods Brian Quick Cordarrelle Patterson Ted Ginn Willie Snead John Brown Tavon Austin Allen Hurns Dontrelle Inman Chris Hogan Anquan Boldin Mohamed Sanu Phillip Dorsett Dorial Green-Beckham Travis Benjamin Robby Anderson Quincy Enunwa Josh Gordon Vincent Jackson Torrey Smith JuJu Smith-Schuster (R) Dede Westbrook (R) Amara Darboh (R) Curtis Samuel (R) Isaiah Ford (R) Travis Rudolph (R) Zay Jones (R) Cooper Kupp (R) TEs Gary Barnidge Julius Thomas Coby Fleener Vance McDonald Austin Hooper Dwayne Allen Charles Clay O.J. Howard (R) Jake Butt (R) DEFs Chargers Dolphins Steelers Cowboys Eagles Bills Lions Redskins Raiders Titans Ks Daniel Carlson (R) Zane Gonzalez (R)