Wednesday, October 28, 2015

2015 Fantasy Football Week 8 Rankings

Last week, I talked a lot about not being able to play the right guy between Steve Smith and Jordan Matthews.  I even gave you a breakdown by week of my use of those two.  (You probably skipped it and went straight to the rankings.  It's cool.)

Still trying to figure out what to do with this guy...
Well, I'll tell you what happened anyway!  I benched Matthews against Carolina and rolled with Steve Smith in Arizona.  It turns out the old man was definitely the right pick, and I think he'll continue to be the right one moving forward.  Flacco looooves him some Steve Smith.  Now I just have to figure out who to play between LeGarrette Blount and Little Danny Woodhead!

Last week, I played Blount at my FLEX spot and was very disappointed.  He actually finished with negative points, while Woodhead blew up in garbage time on my bench.  Luckily it didn't matter, as I won my matchup anyway.  But it's a decision I'll be faced with as long as all of my RBs are healthy (knock on wood).  This week, I have them all right there as RB2s, and I'll probably be deciding between Blount tomorrow night or Latavius Murray in the worst possible matchup (facing the Jets run D).

But enough about my team.  I know you don't care about it.  

Let's do the rankings!


BYES: Bills, Eagles, Jags, Redskins


QBs
1.Tom Brady 
2.Philip Rivers
3.Carson Palmer 
4.Andy Dalton 
5.Aaron Rodgers
6.Matt Ryan 
7.Cam Newton   
8.Drew Brees
9.Andrew Luck
10.Ryan Tannehill  
11.Matthew Stafford  
12.Ryan Fitzpatrick 
13.Eli Manning  
14.Russell Wilson
15.Peyton Manning 

I nailed it with my QB picks versus the ESPN experts last week.  I said you should have looked for another option at QB if you were a Tyrod owner (ESPN #12, ME NOT RANKED).  Sure enough, he was ruled out on Thursday.  Good job, ESPN.  Ha!  Also, I was high on Derek Carr (ESPN #20, ME #15), and he finished as a top-5 fantasy quarterback against the Chargers. 

This week, there are some tough matchups for top tier QBs and some easy matchups for some of the next set of signal callers.  So my QB rankings feel a bit all over the place...

I'm high on: Andy Dalton (ESPN #6, ME #4) & Ryan Fitzpatrick (ESPN #16, ME #12)
I don't have too many QBs that I'm high on versus the experts this week, so I thought I'd just highlight both of these guys once again.  I continue to be higher than the ESPN guys on them week in and week out, and all they do is continue to put up big numbers.  I think both will be good plays again this week.

Yeah he looks ready.
I'm down on: Ben Roethlisberger (ESPN #8, ME NOT RANKED) 
Much like my Tyrod call last week, I just don't think Big Ben plays this week.  All signs are pointing to him not being 100% healthy, and I don't think Tomlin would put him out there if he's not ready.  Even if he does play, he'll be facing a Bengals defense that is coming off their bye week and is much better against the pass than the run.  I expect the Steelers to try to run the ball a lot in this game, whether Ben plays or not.  If we find out he's going to start this game, play him at your own risk.  I'd probably rank him around 12th if that does end up being the case, still much lower than the ESPN experts.

RBs
1.Todd Gurley
2.Devonta Freeman
3.Le'Veon Bell   
4.Adrian Peterson 
5.Marshawn Lynch
6.Matt Forte
7.Justin Forsett  
8.Mark Ingram 
9.Chris Johnson
10.Doug Martin 
11.Chris Ivory
12.Lamar Miller 
13.Charcandrick West 
14.Jonathan Stewart 
15.Giovani Bernard
16.Frank Gore 
17.Ronnie Hillman
18.Dion Lewis 
19.Jeremy Hill 
20.Eddie Lacy 
21.Latavius Murray
22.Danny Woodhead 
23.LeGarrette Blount  
24.Darren McFadden 
25.Alfred Blue 
26.Carlos Hyde 
27.Duke Johnson 
28.Antonio Andrews 
29.Ameer Abdullah
30.Charles Sims 
31.CJ Anderson 
32.Shane Vereen 
33.Melvin Gordon 
34.Rashad Jennings 
35.James Starks
I told you that Charcandrick West (ESPN #28, ME #19) was primed for a breakout game, even against a Steeler defense that had only given up 1 rushing TD all year (and less than 100 rushing yards/game).  It turns out I was right, as West finished as a top-10 fantasy RB in Week 7.  Now that I look at my Week 8 matchup in my money league, I'll be facing him as he plays against the Lions in London.  I'm hoping he slows down a little, but I now have him as a top-15 play.  The guy I was down on was Shane Vereen (ESPN #32, ME NOT RANKED).  He actually finished right around 30th for the week, but I'd still much rather play a guy likely to get a lot of touches and potentially even some goal line work.

I'm high on: Ronnie Hillman (ESPN #24, ME #17) 
Hillman has gone for over 100 rushing yards in 2 of his last 3 games.  The Broncos are coming off their bye week, and I have a feeling he'll get the majority of the work against Green Bay.  I think he'll get close to 100 (total) yards and find the end zone.

I'm down on: Carlos Hyde (ESPN #19, ME #26) 
While I'm not sure I'm buying that this guy is playing through a stress fracture in his foot, I think it's clear he's not 100% healthy.  This week he's facing a Rams defense that is really tough, and I don't see the 49ers getting much of anything going against them.  Since his Week 1 explosion, Hyde has only broken double-digit fantasy points once (Week 5 against the Giants).  I think he'll stay well into the single digits this week in St. Louis.
WRs
1.Julio Jones 
2.DeAndre Hopkins  
3.Calvin Johnson
4.Keenan Allen    
5.Odell Beckham, Jr.  
6.AJ Green 
7.Brandon Marshall 
8.Antonio Brown 
9.Demaryius Thomas 
10.Alshon Jeffery
11.Larry Fitzgerald 
12.Mike Evans
13.Julian Edelman 
14.John Brown 
15.Jarvis Landry 
16.Emmanuel Sanders  
17.Jeremy Maclin 
18.Randall Cobb
19.Steve Smith 
20.Martavis Bryant 
21.TY Hilton
22.Eric Decker  
23.Stefon Diggs 
24.Brandin Cooks
25.Amari Cooper  
26.Golden Tate
27.James Jones 
28.Kendall Wright 
29.Donte Moncrief
30.Rishard Matthews
31.Travis Benjamin
32.Tavon Austin 
33.Marvin Jones
34.Willie Snead
35.Michael Floyd

Last week I was high on Allen Hurns (ESPN #21, ME #13) and down on Mike Wallace (ESPN #31, ME NOT RANKED).  I said that Hurns would go for 100 yards and a touchdown, but I was off by about 50 yards (he did score though).  He finished right around where ESPN ranked him, but you were still happy if you started him.  As for Mike Wallace, he once again took a backseat to rookie Stefon Diggs.  Wallace only finished with 36 receiving yards, while Diggs went over 100 and found the endzone.

I hope the Browns can slow down...Brown. But they won't.
I'm high on: John Brown (ESPN #22, ME #14)
This week I'm high on another guy I'm playing against in my money league.  This time it's John Brown, who is averaging 13 fantasy points in his last 4 games.  He has 2 touchdowns in his last 3 games, and I think the Cardinals should put up plenty of points in Cleveland this week.  John Brown should carve out a sizeable piece of what should be a big Carson Palmer fantasy  day.


I'm down on: Michael Crabtree (ESPN #25, ME NOT RANKED) 
You only have to look back to Week 5 to see when I was really down on Crabtree versus the ESPN experts.  That game was against the tough Broncos defense, and I was right then in thinking Crabtree wouldn't do much.  This week the Raiders face the Jets, and I don't see much difference in the outcome.  I'd say pencil him in for 5 catches for 40 or 50 yards, but that's about it.

TEs
1.Rob Gronkowski 
2.Greg Olsen
3.Tyler Eifert
4.Gary Barnidge
5.Martellus Bennett 
6.Travis Kelce
7.Ladarius Green
8.Jimmy Graham
9.Delanie Walker 
10.Jason Witten

I was high on Gary Barnidge again last week (ESPN #7, ME #4), and yet again he put up double-digit fantasy points.  I also got Jordan Reed back into my top-10, but I should have gotten him into my fantasy lineup.  He was the top tight end in Week 7, as the Redskins now go into their bye week still in the hunt in the second worst division in the NFL.

This week I face Gronk in my money league, and I'm not looking forward to that.  I just hope he doesn't have one of his HUGE games (and just like a pretty good one).  The ESPN experts continue to rank Jordan Cameron in their top-10, and I continue not to.  I mean, I guess he's getting a decent amount of targets, but I'd definitely start someone like Eric Ebron or even Benjamin Watson over him, both of whom just barely missed my top-10 this week.  You'll notice Ladarius Green up there instead of Gates, who I think will likely miss another week due to injury (and could even end up sitting out through San Diego's Week 10 bye at this point).

DEF
1.Rams
2.Seahawks
3.Cardinals  
4.Panthers
5.Jets  
6.Vikings
7.Packers
8.Falcons
9.Patriots 
10.Broncos

I was right about the Skins D.  You LIKE THAT?!?
Last week I played against the Seahawks in my money league, and I was high on them versus the ESPN experts (ESPN #4, ME #1).  After watching the first half of that Thursday night game, I was actually surprised the 49ers scored against them at all.  They didn't finish as the top fantasy defense in Week 7, but they were a top-5 squad, and the only other highly ranked defense going into the week who finished ahead of them was the Rams.  I also was down on my Redskins (ESPN #6 ME #NOT RANKED), as I just have a hard time ranking them at all as a fantasy defense no matter WHAT the matchup.  Turns out I was right about this one, as they gave up 24 points in the first half!  Thankfully, Washington had the biggest comeback in franchise history and managed to beat the Bucs, but their D finished in the bottom-10 for the week. 

Two of the top fantasy defenses this season have been the Broncos and the Packers.  This week, they face each other on Sunday Night Football (IN AMERICA!).  Both teams should be well rested coming off their bye weeks, but it was tough ranking both of these units in my top-10.  In the end I did, but they're definitely much lower than they likely will be in the weeks to come.  Speaking of my top-10, it was basically the same as ESPN's (just in a little different order).  I could say I'm down on the Patriots (ESPN #4, ME #9), but I don't want to hate on the fantasy defense I'm likely to start in my money league.  It just seems like a cop out, and obviously I believe in them enough to start them...so, yeah.  And I'm not really down on any defense that the ESPN experts like (other than maybe the Texans, who I will continue to hate on).  So with that, I'll just end this thing.

Good luck to everyone in Week 8!  
(Except you, Mike...)

Cheers,
Bart

Wednesday, October 21, 2015

2015 Fantasy Football Week 7 Rankings

If you looked at my rankings last week, you may recall that I lost in all three leagues in Week 5.  Well, Week 6 was much better for me.  I won by 3 points in one league, lost by 3 points in another, and won by nearly 100 in my ESPN league (not a typo).  But that one loss stings, mainly because it's in my big money league.  It also annoys me because I feel like I just can't seem to play the right guy between Steve Smith and Jordan Matthews.  Here's a quick breakdown by week with those two (feel free to skip this and head on down to the rankings...I won't blame you):

Week 1: I played them both, and Steve Smith had his worst game to start the season.  Matthews did just fine, but I could have played others on my bench (instead of Sr.) and won that week. 
Week 2: I sat Steve Smith and he put up 150 yards in Oakland.  Matthews was in my lineup and had his best game of the year (80 yards and a TD).  I won anyway.
Week 3: I got one right!  Sweet!  Steve Smith is in my lineup as he puts up over 30 fantasy points, while Jordan stinks it up on my bench.  Oh, but I lost 152.50-147.73.  So it didn't matter...
Week 4: I play them both and they COMBINE for just over 7 fantasy points.  Go figure this is a week I actually win but only put up 63.47 fantasy points.  In Smith's defense, he did get injured in this  game against Pittsburgh.
Week 5: Steve Smith doesn't suit up due to the back injury, so it's Jordan Matthews scoring 4.4 in my starting lineup.  Not much of a choice for me, but another one in the L column.
Week 6: I saw that Steve Smith was going to be active against the 49ers, but I was worried about getting him back into my lineup so soon after the injury.  It turns out I was wrong.  Had I played him, he would have easily given me the win.  Instead I played Matthews, who could have helped my cause if it weren't for a fumble, a drop, and some bad throws from Bradford.
Week 7: I'm benching Matthews against Carolina and rolling with Steve Smith in Arizona.  I don't like either matchup, but I have to go with the guy who has been getting it done, right? 

I've had enough, Jordan!
My other WR is Julio Jones, so I'm obviously playing him every week.  At this point, I'll just hope that Jordan will start producing in the second half of the season (after his Week 8 bye).  But until then, he'll ride my bench!

OK.  Enough about Steve Smith versus Jordan Matthews.  At this point in the season, it seems like a no-brainer to play the old man.  But I guess we'll have to wait and see what happens this week. 

And with that, let's do the rankings!


BYES: Bears, Bengals, Broncos, Packers


QBs
1.Andrew Luck
2.Carson Palmer 
3.Tom Brady 
4.Philip Rivers
5.Cam Newton 
6.Drew Brees
7.Russell Wilson
8.Eli Manning  
9.Matt Ryan
10.Blake Bortles
11.Ryan Tannehill
12.Matthew Stafford 
13.Ryan Fitzpatrick  
14.Sam Bradford
15.Derek Carr

Last week I was high on Sam Bradford (ESPN #14, ME #7) and down on Joe Flacco (ESPN #15, ME NOT RANKED).  I was wrong on both counts.  That Monday night game was downright sloppy, and Bradford finished outside of the top-20 QBs in Week 6.  As for Flacco, my pick was looking good after a miserable first half for Joe.  But he actually finished strong (albeit in a loss) and wound up as a top-15 play.  I won't be ranking Flacco again this week, but I hope I'm wrong for the second week in a row.  I'm sure I'll need some points from Steve Smith on Monday Night Football to pull out a much-needed win as I sit in 8th place in my money league (a win last week would have had me in 3rd place right now...dang it!). 

I'm high on: Derek Carr (ESPN #20, ME #15) 
This was a tough one because my rankings were so similar to ESPN's this week.  But here's one guy I ranked inside my top-15 that only one ESPN expert agreed with me on.  Derek Carr struggled in his two starts this season against tough defenses (Denver and Cincy), but he threw at least 2 TDs in his other three starts (Baltimore, Cleveland, and Chicago).  I don't see the Chargers as having a solid pass defense, as they've given up the 11th most TD passes in the league this season.  I like for Derek Carr and Amari Cooper to both have decent fantasy days as they come off their bye week and travel to San Diego.

I don't think you'll see this in Week 7...
I'm down on: Tyrod Taylor (ESPN #12, ME NOT RANKED) 
Let's assume for a minute that Tyrod does play in this game (which I don't think he will).  If he does, I'm sure he'll be somewhat limited as he's coming back from an MCL sprain.  What gives Tyrod value as a fantasy QB?  His legs.  What body part is banged up for him currently?  One of his legs.  If he plays in this game (and that's a BIG "if"), not only do I think his rushing yards will be extremely limited, but his best healthy receiver will be his tight end (Clay).  I'd look for another option this week if I'm a Tyrod owner.

RBs
1.Devonta Freeman
2.Le'Veon Bell   
3.Todd Gurley
4.Adrian Peterson 
5.Arian Foster
6.Chris Ivory 
7.Marshawn Lynch
8.Mark Ingram 
9.LeSean McCoy
10.Frank Gore
11.Lamar Miller
12.Latavius Murray
13.DeMarco Murray
14.Justin Forsett  
15.Dion Lewis   
16.Doug Martin
17.Chris Johnson
18.Carlos Hyde 
19.Charcandrick West 
20.Jonathan Stewart 
21.Alfred Morris 
22.Danny Woodhead  
23.Rashad Jennings 
24.LeGarrette Blount  
25.Duke Johnson
26.Christine Michael
27.Melvin Gordon 
28.Toby Gerhart 
29.Antonio Andrews
30.Charles Sims
31.Theo Riddick 
32.Joseph Randle
33.Matt Jones 
34.Isaiah Crowell  
35.Ameer Abdullah
I was 1 for 2 with my RB picks versus the ESPN experts as I was high on Isaiah Crowell (ESPN #33, ME #24) and down on Matt Jones (ESPN #33, ME NOT RANKED).  None of the Browns had much fantasy value on Sunday against the Broncos (except for the Barnyard Dog...more on that later).  Crowell finished outside of the top-30 RBs in Week 6.  As for Matt Jones, I pointed out on Wednesday that he left the game against Atlanta with a toe injury and was unable to return.  He was limited in practice all week, and I said I wasn't sure he'd even suit up.  Well, he didn't.  The Redskins could have used him, but I'm not sure he would have done much more than Morris against that Jets defense. 

I'm high on: Charcandrick West (ESPN #28, ME #19) 
I realize the Steelers are giving up less than 100 yards on the ground per game.  I also realize they've only conceded 1 rushing touchdown this year.  But Jeremy Maclin is not guaranteed to play in this game, as he's currently in the league's concussion protocol (I'm not ranking him).  Meanwhile, the Steelers are likely to start Landry Jones at quarterback with both Vick and Big Ben still banged up.  I think this game could be a 13-10 slugfest, and I also think the Chiefs could end up running the ball with Charcandrick 20+ times.  If you look at teams who have faced the Steelers this year, I think the lack of running sometimes comes down to style and game plan.  For instance, the last couple of weeks, QBs like Rivers and Palmer have thrown the ball over 45 times each against Pittsburgh.  But other teams like Baltimore had no problem running all over the field against the Steelers.  I don't see Alex Smith throwing all day to Travis Kelce and receivers like Albert Wilson.  They're going to run early and often, and Charcandrick West is primed for a breakout game.

I'm down on: Shane Vereen (ESPN #32, ME NOT RANKED) 
Here's a guy who has had one double-digit fantasy day on the season, and that came against the lowly 49ers defense.  And aside from that game, in his last 4 contests he's had a grand total of 5 fantasy points.  I didn't consider ranking Vereen this week, and I think Jennings should have another solid fantasy day against Dallas (not Shane).

WRs
1.DeAndre Hopkins 
2.Julio Jones    
3.Larry Fitzgerald
4.Odell Beckham, Jr. 
5.Brandon Marshall
6.Calvin Johnson
7.Julian Edelman 
8.Keenan Allen
9.TY Hilton  
10.Allen Robinson
11.John Brown
12.Amari Cooper
13.Allen Hurns 
14.Antonio Brown 
15.Donte Moncrief 
16.Steve Smith 
17.Jarvis Landry 
18.Mike Evans
19.Eric Decker 
20.Travis Benjamin
21.Willie Snead
22.Martavis Bryant 
23.Golden Tate
24.Vincent Jackson
25.Brandin Cooks 
26.Pierre Garcon
27.Jordan Matthews  
28.Anquan Boldin
29.Michael Crabtree
30.Terrance Williams 
31.Kendall Wright
32.Stefon Diggs
33.Leonard Hankerson
34.Tavon Austin 
35.Ted Ginn

Last week I was high on Leonard Hankerson (ESPN #36, ME #27), and I was down on Jordan Matthews (ESPN #20, ME #26).  Well, Hankerson lost some looks (and even a TD) to Roddy White, who had been MIA through the first part of the season.  As for Jordan, I feel like I already talked about him enough at the beginning.  I'll just say he finished well outside of the top-50 WRs in Week 6.  So disappointing...
  
(SPLOOSH!)
I'm high on: Allen Hurns (ESPN #21, ME #13)
He has a touchdown in each of his last 4 games, and he has averaged 9 targets/game in his last 3 contests.  Blake Bortles seems to be getting better each game, and the Bills are giving up a ton of fantasy points to WRs this year.  I like Hurns to go for 100 yards and a score in jolly ole England on Sunday.


I'm down on: Mike Wallace (ESPN #31, ME NOT RANKED) 
Stefon Diggs is the only Viking WR I could bring myself to rank this week.  Mike Wallace has had 3 or fewer catches in 3 of his 5 games this year.  He only managed 23 yards on 9 targets last week against a Chiefs defense that gives up the MOST fantasy points to WRs.  I just don't see him doing much against Detroit, kind of like the first time he played against them this year.  

TEs
1.Rob Gronkowski 
2.Antonio Gates 
3.Greg Olsen
4.Gary Barnidge 
5.Jimmy Graham
6.Travis Kelce 
7.Charles Clay   
8.Delanie Walker 
9.Jordan Reed
10.Julius Thomas

Shake out the cobwebs, and get back in there, Reed!
I was high on Gary Barnidge last week (ESPN #11, ME #7), and he scored two more TDs on his way to a top-3 finish.  I was down on Jordan Cameron (ESPN #10, ME #NOT RANKED), who had two catches until a meaningless TD with less than 2 minutes to go in the game.  Garbage time points matter though, and he finished as the #11 tight end in Week 6.  Still, I felt like it was a good call and I'll continue to keep him out of my top-10.  I'm high on Barnidge again this week (ESPN #7, ME #4), but otherwise my rankings are pretty similar to the ESPN experts.  You'll notice Jordan Reed is back into the top-10, as he says he's back to "100 percent".  If that's true, look for Cousins to go back to his favorite target against the Bucs.  Hopefully my Redskins can go into their bye week with a W!

DEF
1.Seahawks
2.Cardinals  
3.Rams
4.Panthers  
5.Bills
6.Vikings
7.Patriots
8.Dolphins
9.Falcons
10.Steelers

Last week my defensive rankings were nearly the same as ESPN's, but I did call out the Houston Texans.  I said if they couldn't get it done against the Jags, it's time to stop thinking of them as a top defense.  Well, they did well in a victory in Jacksonville, and they even had a defensive touchdown.  They'll have to wait another week for me to rank them in my top-10 though because I have trust issues. 

I'm scared...
I'm high on: Seahawks (ESPN #4, ME #1)  
This week in my money league, I'm playing against a guy whose high score came in Week 1 and was 82.13 fantasy points.  He has Matt Forte on a bye, and I should be feeling good about my matchup, right?  Well, yes.  I should be.  But I'm not.  The way things have gone so far this season, I'm not taking anything for granted.  And he has Seattle's defense playing against Kaepernick and the 49ers tomorrow.  That kind of terrifies me.  I'm worried the Seahawks are going to put up like 30 fantasy points on their own.  San Francisco has given up the most fantasy points to opposing defenses this season, and I think Seattle is going to embarrass them tomorrow night.  I'm actually pretty surprised the ESPN experts didn't all rank them at the top spot.

I'm down on: Washington Redskins (ESPN #6 ME #NOT RANKED) 
I like the vote of confidence, and our defense is playing about 100 times better than our offense...BUT I just can't rank my team in the top-10 this week (or really any week).  I understand more than anyone that our defense has done well, but I can't do it.  Tampa Bay is coming off their bye week, and I can see them putting up points on Washington.  I'm staying away from this one, but I sure hope I'm wrong.

Good luck to everyone in Week 7!  
(Except you, Terry...)

Cheers,
Bart