Two things happened...
1. As it turns out, one of the guys in my league did read my blog pretty regularly. In fact, he's probably reading this right now. It also turns out that he happened to WIN THE LEAGUE! Meanwhile, I finished just outside of the playoffs. I ended up 6-7, and a 7th place finish in my 12-team league. To recap, from 2003-2012, my finishes are now: 1st, 4th, 3rd, 7th, 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 5th, 4th, 7th. So I missed the playoffs for only the second time in my 10-year fantasy career. But it stings so much when it's 7th. I'd almost rather be dead last and have the league name my team this year than finish just outside of the playoffs. I don't want to whine too much about that though. I probably did enough of that at the end of last year. And it's not like reading my blog was the reason this guy won the league. Yes, he might have stolen CJ Spiller from me a round or two before anyone in our draft room was even thinking about him (except for maybe the two of us). But he also snatched up Donald Brown and Darrius Heyward-Bey a round earlier than I was considering those two. So it evens out a little. His first two picks in the draft were also Tom Brady and Doug Martin, and his keepers were Eric Decker and Dez Bryant. You're not going to lose too many games with those points week in and week out. So congrats and I hope you've enjoyed it because I'm getting my name on the trophy this year!
2. The other thing that happened was this: I had a LOT of fun blogging about fantasy football. I really enjoyed writing my own take on the preseason expectations and the weekly rankings. I took a lot of pride in being able to say "I told you so" on certain rankings from week to week. Yes, there's a bit of cherry picking involved, but it's still fun. And having fun is what this is all about, right? Well, that and winning of course. At the end of last year, I was ranking guys like Andy Dalton and Russell Wilson way higher than big website "experts" were ranking them. And those guys were lighting it up. Meanwhile, the Rodgers/Brees/Brady bunch stayed at the top of most rankings, probably because a lot of people are afraid to go out on a limb. Well I'm going to try to do more of that this year. It's not easy because you can look like an idiot when you're wrong, but what do I care? I might do it more in my feature pieces, some of which I'll do again. I've already been putting together my Fantasy Redeem Team in my head. Maybe I'll add some new ones. Any suggestions...?
So Matthew Berry recently released his Draft Day Manifesto, and I tend to agree with a lot of his writings. I definitely agree with his philosophy that you need to minimize risk and give yourself the best odds to win. I agree with that in the preseason rankings especially because for every Doug Martin in the second round look-like-a-genius-move, there are many other reaches that could make you look like a bonehead. Now, if you make some solid moves in the first few rounds, making those risky picks later on in your draft feels a little easier. On the flipside of that, if you take Doug Martin in the second round (or this year, let's say Montee Ball or Eddie Lacy perhaps), then you might want to play it safe in a later round. Draft Ronnie Hillman or Johnathan Franklin, so if those guys end up with the starting job for one reason or another, you have them stashed. Or right after you take that potential star RB (and the draft room blows up with laughter and "shut the front door"s), draft a guy like Mendenhall or Green-Ellis. It's way too early to know if those are the names I'd still recommend in two months, but the point is to grab a guy who you know has a hold on the starting job, just in case that risky move doesn't pay off. I'm all about drafting a rookie a round or two earlier than everyone else might, followed by a boring Willis McGahee type pick. Again, bad example since he got cut recently by the Broncos. But you get the idea.
Once the season starts, you need to be ready to adapt. I'm not saying to freak out if Doug Martin has 3 fantasy points in his first game. But if he doesn't get it done against that porous Saints rush defense in week 2, then you might get concerned. And I, for one, will be moving The Muscle Hamster down in my rankings if such a scenario occurs. But I don't think such a scenario will occur. It could happen to your guy though. I continued to play Ryan Mathews and Dwayne Bowe for the longest time last year, but I finally had to start shaking up my roster a little bit. I wish I had done it sooner, and I wish I had stuck to my own rankings. A couple times I second guessed my own rankings and went with the safe pick. This is where I'll disagree with Berry on minimizing your risk because sometimes you just need to go with the hot hand (or your gut, which sometimes could be the same thing). And I'll try to stick to my rankings this year, both preseason for the draft and during the season for week-to-week start/sit determinations. If I guy is hot or happens to be playing against a weak defense, he might get moved up. I tried to do that with my weekly rankings last year, but I'm going to try to pay even closer attention to it this time around.
So let's get this thing going again. Redskins Training Camp is starting in ONE MONTH, and I'm getting excited for the NFL coming to RVA! I've put together these rankings a little earlier than last year because I couldn't contain myself. That being said, this list will probably look very different in a month and even more different a month from then. I'll start with comments on each player for this initial ranking, and the rankings that follow will have notes next to guys I move up or down. I rank based on my league, which is non-PPR and no extra points for silly things like long touchdowns. We also do keepers (but you can't keep anyone who was drafted in the first two rounds of the previous year's draft), so that factors into my rankings somewhat. If two guys are close, I might rank the younger guy a little higher based on potential (for instance in the case of Moores, I'll rank Denarius over Lance).
We have 12 rounds and everyone starts with 2 keepers. Hence, I only rank 168 players (and my own personal list will be down to 144 come draft day). I'll keep a pool of extras after the initial 168, as some guys may move up or down once more news comes out of camp and preseason. I tend to only draft one QB and TE...and always only one DEF and K. So you'll notice my rankings are heavy on RBs and WRs. At this point, I'll be ranking who I think might be the #2 RB for each team, with a note on who could be waiting in the wings after that guy. Get ready! Football is almost back!!!
| 1. Adrian Peterson: Easiest #1 pick you'll ever make. |
| 2. Arian Foster: Especially like him ahead of Martin if Vonta Leach returns to Houston. |
| 3. Doug Martin: You didn't think my little scenario above was real, did you? |
| 4. Jamaal Charles: The Andy Reid offense intrigues me for this already-explosive guy. |
| 5. LeSean McCoy: Same goes for the Eagles and Chip Kelly. He'll bounce back. |
| 6. Marshawn Lynch: Didn't believe in him last year, and he proved me wrong. |
| 7. Ray Rice: A little concerned there may be increased workload for Bernard Pierce. |
| 8. Calvin Johnson: Here is where I'd probably deviate from RB and take Megatron. |
| 9. Aaron Rodgers: And here I'd start considering QB. I like Rodgers the best this year. |
| 10. CJ Spiller: I told you by mid-2012 he'd be the guy in Buffalo... |
| 11. Alfred Morris: Would rank higher if I wasn't worried about Shanny working in Helu. |
| 12. Jimmy Graham: With the TE concerns in New England, he becomes a first rounder. |
| 13. Drew Brees: Lost Devery Henderson. So......? Still one of the best. |
| 14. Trent Richardson: Not a great YPC in rookie year, but he'll get the touches. |
| 15. Steven Jackson: A lot of tread on the tires, turns 30 in July. But ATL situation so good! |
| 16. AJ Green: Splitting hairs with this next group of WRs, but I like Green the most of the bunch. |
| 17. Brandon Marshall: Hate Cutler, but he gets Marshall the ball...a LOT. |
| 18. Dez Bryant: Strong finish to 2012, should carry over with Romo this season and beyond. |
| 19. Julio Jones: Matt Ryan seems to be getting better, and so is he. |
| 20. Peyton Manning: Denver added Wes Welker. I think that's enough to take him over Brady. |
| 21. Matt Forte: He's a boring top-12 running back, but he's still top-12... |
| 22. Stevan Ridley: If you're willing to risk it on a NE running back, he was great last year. |
| 23. Tom Brady: Lost some weapons, but he can spread it around to anyone. |
| 24. Frank Gore: Already turned 30 this year, but I still trust him to produce. |
| 25. Maurice Jones-Drew: Should be back from injury & in a contract year, but injury worries me some. |
| 26. Percy Harvin: In a new spot with a better QB. Gotta rank him up here with the elite WRs. |
| 27. Demaryius Thomas: Would have him even higher if Welker didn't come to town. |
| 28. Cam Newton: The only keeper I feel good about. Hope he can get more rushing TDs this year. |
| 29. Chris Johnson: Titans signed Shonn Greene in offseason, takes CJOK down a notch for me. |
| 30. Darren McFadden: Do you still believe? He's in final year of his rookie contract...I bet he does. |
| 31. DeMarco Murray: Serious injury concern, but has shown flashes of...pretty goodness. |
| 32. Reggie Bush: He's surprising me in his old age (for a running back). Only seems to get better. |
| 33. Larry Fitzgerald: Can Carson Palmer return Fitz to that elite level he deserves to be in? |
| 34: Roddie White: Mr. Consistent, still gets his in Atlanta (even with Julio there too). |
| 35. Andre Johnson: Another guy who gets injured a lot, but also nasty when 100% healthy. |
| 36. Vincent Jackson: Freeman made instant connection with VJax, and that will continue. |
| (For reference, this is my league's potential keeper line) |
| 37. Randall Cobb: Quickly becoming go-to guy for Aaron. |
| 38. Victor Cruz: Keeping an eye on contract situation, but everything should be a go. |
| 39. Jordy Nelson: Injury plagued a little last year, I think he'll bounce back in 2013. |
| 40. Marques Colston: I never like having Saints WRs, but Colston does get most of the looks. |
| 41. Wes Welker: Would be higher if Denver had gotten rid of Decker, but still pretty high. |
| 42. Dwayne Bowe: Playing for a big contract...again. I think he'll surprise this year with new offense. |
| 43. Hakeem Nicks: If he can stay healthy, could be top-10...but won't stay healthy. |
| 44. Reggie Wayne: Another guy under the radar last year (for most). This year takes small step back. |
| 45. Matt Ryan: Another guy in a contract year, but he's playing for a championship. |
| 46. Rob Gronkowski: Would be lower if it weren't a keeper league. Start of season still unclear. |
| 47. David Wilson: Great potential, but has fumbled in big spots. Andre Brown will get touches. |
| 48. Rashard Mendenhall: I keep feeling like I have him ranked too high, but I think others are just wrong. |
| 49. Lamar Miller: A little gun shy on a second year guy taking the gig, but he sounds legit... |
| 50. Darren Sproles: Another 30 year old, but for what he does, he'll continue to get his. |
| 51. Ryan Mathews: Probably my other keeper (*ugh*). Hoping Mr. Glass stays healthy. |
| 52. Chris Ivory: Feels strange having him ranked this highly, but feature back and Jets will run. |
| 53. Montee Ball: Only this high for now, assuming he'll be the starter Week 1. |
| 54. LeVeon Bell: Same for him. Several decent RBs in Pittsburgh, but maybe he starts? |
| 55. Benjarvis Green-Ellis: Solid but disappointing 2012. Bengals drafted Bernard for a reason. |
| 56. Eddie Lacy: Green Bay might have another Ryan Grant or Ahman Green in the making here. |
| 57. Ahmad Bradshaw: I really liked Ballard to be my other keeper, but not now... |
| 58. Danny Amendola: Finds himself in a great fantasy position in NE, if he can stay healthy. |
| 59. Pierre Garcon: Had good chemistry with RGIII last year, but a bit snake bit by injuries. |
| 60. Torrey Smith: Ranking this guy higher than most too. I'm hoping the hair wasn't all of his strength. |
| 61. Antonio Brown: With Wallace gone, he should be the guy who gets some extra targets. |
| 62. Colin Kaepernick: Great numbers in the few games he played. Can he reproduce on an entire season? |
| 63. RGIII: I will be personally monitoring his progress here in Richmond. |
| 64. Russell Wilson: Most experts have him higher than this, but I'm not totally sold yet. |
| 65. Andrew Luck: I think he could take the next step and be even better than the three above him. |
| 66. Tony Romo: Rank him after the young bucks, but he's still putting up (fantasy) numbers. |
| 67. Matthew Stafford: Would have him higher if he had someone opposite Megatron to throw to. |
| 68, Jason Witten: After Graham and Gronk, here's where I might start looking tight end... |
| 69. Dennis Pitta: Best friends with Flacco. I think their chemistry transfers to a big season. |
| 70. Tony Gonzalez: Doubted this old dude last year, but not making that mistake again. |
| 71. Vernon Davis: Could end up being WR, but will still have TE eligibility. Even better! |
| 72. Mike Wallace: If Tannehill can hit him on a few routes, the big plays are worth a pick here. |
| 73. Steve Smith: Cam doesn't put up huge numbers in the air, but still finds Smith often enough. |
| 74. Cecil Shorts: Wish he had a better QB throwing to him, but talent puts him here. |
| 75. James Jones: On the flipside of that, Rodgers puts Jones here (not as sure about the talent). |
| 76. Greg Jennings: Would be higher if not so injury prone. Probably still something in the tank. |
| 77. Eric Decker: Can't see ranking him any higher than this with Welker getting Peyton's attention. |
| 78. Stevie Johnson: Rookie QB, but will have to look his way more than anyone else. |
| 79. TY Hilton: Like him more until Colts signed DHB. Still like him enough for Top-100. |
| 80. Jeremy Maclin: Another guy at the end of his rookie contract. Crazy that he's a sleeper. |
| 81. Miles Austin: Too many injuries to rank him higher than this. And maybe this is too high. |
| 82. Isaiah Pead: OK. Enough WRs. Pead could be the starter in STL, but what does that say? |
| 83. Jonathan Stewart: The Daily Show takes a back seat to the Cam Newton Hour. |
| 84. Andre Brown: I feel he has the best chance for any backup to dethrone their team's starter. |
| 85. Vick Ballard: Probably the second best chance, with Bradshaw's foot issues in the past. |
| 86. Eli Manning: A year removed from a near-5000 yard season, still has Cruz and Nicks to throw to. |
| 87. Andy Dalton: No one gave him much love last year, but only continues to improve... |
| 88. Denarius Moore: I hope Flynn can get him the ball. Could be a dynamic playmaker. |
| 89. Tavon Austin: The Rams moved up in the draft to get him. You might have to as well. |
| 90. Anquan Boldin: Who else is Colin going to throw to in San Fran? I guess we'll find out. |
| 91. Denario Alexander: Built good rapport with Rivers last year. Should be his #1 target. |
| 92. Mike Williams: Another guy I hyped up last year. A solid, boring pick who will help your team. |
| 93. Lance Moore: Same with Lance. Not flashy, but he'll produce fantasy points every week. |
| 94. Giovani Bernard: Could be the best rookie RB from the draft...could even be replacing The Law Firm? |
| 95. Ben Tate: In a contract year, and Foster tends to get injured for a game here and there. |
| 96. Bernard Pierce: Showed last year he could spell little Ray quite nicely. Might get more touches. |
| 97. Bryce Brown: Another guy who produced when the starter went down. Could happen again. |
| 98. Joseph Randle: Don't think Tanner gets the RB2 in Big D, and Murray has injury concerns. |
| 99. Jacquizz Rodgers: Everyone down on him with SJax coming to town, but he offers change of pace. |
| 100. Shane Vereen: Remember, it is Belichick running the show up there. Vereen will get some touches. |
| 101. Mark Ingram: Yep. Still ranking him this highly. Not sure why. Glutton for punishment I guess. |
| 102. Shonn Greene: Had a solid 2012, but not sure what his role will be in Tennessee yet. |
| 103. Michael Bush: As long as Forte is healthy, pencil him in for 700 yds & 5 TDs. If Forte isn't...? |
| 104. Johnathan Franklin: Lacy might not have a stranglehold on starting gig. These guys are both rookies. |
| 105. Montario Hardesty: TRich has already had some knee issues. Hardesty a decent handcuff to have. |
| 106. Toby Gerhart: I only rank him this highly because he is clear #2, but only a handcuff if you have AP. |
| 107. Ronnie Hillman: I think he wins backup job over Moreno. Could even get "official" starting job. |
| 108. Ryan Williams: Arizona drafted 2 rookie RBs, but I think Williams still is the backup. For now. |
| 109. DeShaun Jackson: I don't want him on my real or fantasy team. Might drop him even lower. |
| 110. Sidney Rice: Should still be able to get some love, even with Percy there now. |
| 111. Emmanuel Sanders: Needs to step up with Wallace gone. Whether he will or not is the question. |
| 112. Michael Floyd: Solid rookie year. Sounds like he might be ready for the next step (and with better QB). |
| 113. DeAndre Hopkins: Maybe Houston has finally found someone to catch some passes opposite Andre. |
| 114. Aaron Dobson: Another rookie WR, this time in New England, where a few holes need filling. |
| 115. Cordarelle Patterson: Supposedly one of the top WRs in the rookie class. Can Ponder get him the rock? |
| 116. Kenny Britt: In a contract year, but not sure he ever stays healthy. SO talented though... |
| 117. Justin Blackmon: Another big talent, but not sure he has it all upstairs. |
| 118. Chris Givens: Could see him get better or regress with Austin now in St. Louis. Worth a shot here though. |
| 119. Kendall Wright: Titans seem to think he's ready to take it to the next level. Is Locker? |
| 120. Brian Hartline: Caught a lot of passes for a lot of yards in 2012, but only one TD. |
| 121. Darrius Heyward-Bey: Hasn't really progressed every year, but still a lot of talent and on a better team. |
| 122. Jeremy Kerley: Someone has to catch passes for the Jets, and I don't think it's Santonio. |
| 123. Josh Gordon: Suspended 2 games, but too talented to pass up altogether, even if he is a Browns WR. |
| 124. Greg Olsen: Here's about where I'll probably end up taking my tight end. Olsen is a safe pick. |
| 125. Brandon Pettigrew: Has had 100+ targets each of the last 3 years, and this is a contract year.. |
| 126. Jermichael Finley: Also in a contract year, and maybe a few more to go around with Jennings gone? |
| 127. Owen Daniels: I don't think I even ranked him last year, but he'll be an average TE once again. |
| 128. Antonio Gates: Draft at your own risk. He's getting too old to expect 800 yards and 7 TDs. |
| 129. Kyle Rudolph: Hot and cold last year, but maybe more consistent in 2013? |
| 130. Danny Woodhead: Not so much a backup for Mathews. More like a poor man's Sproles. |
| 131. Fred Jackson: Spiller is the man now, but Jackson will still eat into a few of his touches. |
| 132. Mikel Leshoure: This could end up being Joique Bell, which is why I have Leshoure so low. |
| 133. DeAngelo Williams: Turned 30 this year, and his numbers are already in decline. |
| 134. Daryl Richardson: Might be #2 or it could be Zac Stacy. Will monitor STL backfield in preseason. |
| 135. Justin Forsett: Jags drafted Denard Robinson as a RB, but Forsett could be a sneaky pick if MJD out. |
| 136. Marcel Reece: Probably the backup in Oakland, but they did sign Rashad Jennings in the offseason. |
| 137. Robert Turbin: Should be the clear RB after Beast Mode. Rookie Christine Michael could get a look though. |
| 138. Knile Davis: Rookie in KC who could get the nod if Charles goes down. Shaun Draughn also there. |
| 139. Jonathan Dwyer: Steelers signed Stephens-Howling in offseason, but Dwyer looked good in 2012. |
| 140. Daniel Thomas: How many times do you give him a chance? Dolphins could give Gillislee that chance. |
| 141. Roy Helu: If fully healthy, should be the backup (not Royster). Maybe will see 1st hand at training camp. |
| 142. Bilal Powell: Mike Goodson was arrested back in May for drugs/weapons. I'd rather have Powell. |
| 143. Kendall Hunter: LaMichael James will get some burn too, but I like Hunter to get more carries. |
| 144. Mike James: I guess he'll be the handcuff for Doug Martin, though the Bucs did get Brian Leonard. |
| 145. Seahawks DEFENSE: Just going to rank 12 defenses and kickers here, no comments. |
| 146. 49ers DEFENSE |
| 147. Bears DEFENSE |
| 148. Texans DEFENSE |
| 149. Broncos DEFENSE |
| 150. Bengals DEFENSE |
| 151. Ravens DEFENSE |
| 152. Patriots DEFENSE |
| 153. Cardinals DEFENSE |
| 154. Rams DEFENSE |
| 155. Packers DEFENSE |
| 156. Giants DEFENSE |
| 157. Stephen Gostkowski |
| 158. Matt Bryant |
| 159. Matt Prater |
| 160. Justin Tucker |
| 161. Blair Walsh |
| 162. Dan Bailey |
| 163. Sebastian Janikowski |
| 164. Phil Dawson |
| 165. Randy Bullock |
| 166. Kai Forbath |
| 167. Rob Bironas |
Some more names (in order, roughly) who didn't quite make the 168 but need to keep an eye on...
If you're wondering why I didn't rank (or even list below) guys like Jermaine Gresham or Pierre Thomas, I'll probably include them in a later piece. There are just certain guys who don't make my board and
QBs
| Josh Freeman |
| Michael Vick |
| Joe Flacco |
| Big Ben |
| Philip Rivers |
| Sam Bradford |
| Carson Palmer |
| Matt Schaub |
| Ryan Tannehill |
| Jake Locker |
| EJ Manuel |
TEs |
| Aaron Hernandez |
| Fred Davis |
| Brandon Myers |
| Martellus Bennett |
| Rob Housler |
| Jared Cook |
| Dustin Keller |
| RBs Michael Turner (FREE AGENT) Beanie Wells (FREE AGENT) Peyton Hillis (FREE AGENT) |
| Ryan Grant (FREE AGENT) |
| Cedric Benson (FREE AGENT) |
| Willis McGahee (FREE AGENT) |
| WRs |
| Alshon Jeffery |
| Vincent Brown |
| Brandon LaFell |
| Golden Tate |
| AJ Jenkins |
| Jacoby Jones |
| Nate Washington |
| Malcom Floyd |
| Ryan Broyles |
| Brian Quick |
| Brandon Lloyd (FREE AGENT) It feels good to get that first blog post up for 2013. I'm on vacation until the second week in July, but more to come when I'm back! Cheers, Bart |
